The 250 year thing is basically completely made up BS
250 years is just a rough estimate. As an expert, what’s the number you’ve arrived at?
It’s straight up not a thing, there is no number of years which tends to correspond to the life expectancy of empires
We’re talking about the average life expectancy of an empire. It’s a fairly straightforward calculation if one has all the data ready.
It’s not really that straightforward though, is it? Firstly is it a mean or a median average? What counts as an empire? When do we date the rise and fall of specific empires? These are not questions with straightforwards answers. Would Hitler’s Germany count as an empire? How many Roman empires were there?
I wish liberals could actually read.
I wish more people understood statistics. Did you learn about moments?
You’re all worried about statistics and the poor guy can’t even read.
Do you count the Byzantine as separate or the same as Rome?
Your talking about structures comprising huge numbers of people across multiple generations. There is no clear “death”. Just the gradual shifting from one set of conditions to another. Pick any line in the sand, declare it to be the “end” of an empire, and you’ll still find people living under its rules, speaking the language, and using the currency well afterward.
Hell, look at Britain. No longer the globe-strangling power that they were, but it’s still the same country with the same rules and government and money.
Good counter argument
Hurrr librulz durrrrr. Fuck off.
Sure, we could also work out the average life expectancy of a mammal.
But, would it really be useful, predictive or meaningful, given the variety and variability of the conditions the data emerges from?
Yes. The average life expectancy of a human for instance is a useful statistic in healthcare, social services, financial and retirement planning, etc.
Yes, because of the relatively similar conditions and needs of humans
Something empires don’t have!
Interesting… 😂
mammal, not human
It being an average number, pulled out of it’s context, doesn’t necessarily mean anything beyond just the average
Regardless, that is the number we are interested in.
Average out of which number? There has not been enough empires in human history to get any kind of valid statistical conclusion.
Also, the ancient egyptian empire lasted over 3k years, for you to get an average of 250y with such outlier you would need to include what, several 10y “empires”, or divide empires by ruler. Which would then make the conversation moot since each US president would be a new “empire”.
The claim comes from John Glubb, and he used this chart to make the average out of… 11 data points!?! While missing tons of other ancient empires that lasted thousands of years?!
This is the book where he makes such claim
So to answer your comment, yeah math is easy. Impossible to reach such average number with all the data though, given that it was made with a wildly incomplete and incorrect data…
the ancient egyptian empire lasted over 3k years
No, not even close. The Egyptian Empire lasted from 1570 to 1069 BC.
The claim comes from John Glubb
No, there are others as I’ve already mentioned. The Changing World Order by Ray Dalio also arrives at the 250 year number. Cliodynamics and Structural-Demographic Theory suggests cycles of 200-300 years as well.
Why are you selectively choosing to consider only the “new kingdom” part of the whole thing? Overall it’s from 3150 BC – 30 BC
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Egypt
I can also reach to whatever conclusion if I decide to ignore what doesn’t fit and modify what does to make it fit better. That’s wrong…
Why are you selectively choosing to consider only the “new kingdom” part of the whole thing? Overall it’s from 3150 BC – 30 BC
You don’t really know what you’re talking about do you? Here, look at this: https://www.worldhistory.org/Egyptian_Empire/
The Egyptian Empire rose during the period of the New Kingdom (c. 1570- c. 1069 BCE)
Three
Add fiddy and we’ll talk.
Indeed. The empire you left to make your own with blackjack and hookers was nearly double that. If you want to be facetious too, then probably triple.
I hate to be nitpicky about a meme but I love to be nitpicky. This claims is based on bullshit statistics that the author made up or bent to his will. The Ottoman empire alone shows this to be incorrect but Rome too stands out. Besides, what would an arbitrary amount of time have to do with the collapse of complex economic systems. Its bullshit idealism and I hate seeing it.
I am begging the US to collapse though
Also worth pointing out that, while America may be 249 years old, no one would consider it an empire for the majority of that time. Its debatable, but I would argue we didn’t really reach an empirical level of power until the late 40s, when we started taking over what was left of the British Empire’s influence over the middle-eas5.
The US has always been a settler-colony, but it became more Imperialist after World War I with the inter-ally debts. It became world hegemon after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, however.
Average. It’s just an average. I haven’t verified whether the number is accurate (and often it’s probably debatable what qualifies as an empire and at what point it fell) but some empires lasting way longer does nothing to disprove 250 years being the average lifespan.
The second part of what you said is still entirely correct of course, that number has no real predictive capabilities for the collapse of the USA.
It isn’t though, I have seen the original source of this claim and its bs. The author just picks and chooses when empires begin and end so that it fits their claim. I would concede the point if it were ever actually an average.
It’s not just Glubb. The Changing World Order by Ray Dalio also arrives at the 250 year number.
Cliodynamics and Structural-Demographic Theory suggests cycles of 200-300 years as well.
I mean yea that doesn’t surprise me in the slightest honestly, even outside of the number itself being pretty meaningless in the first place it’s very fuzzy what the actual dates are.
Pic unrelated
(I’m /j)
When someone says “death to America”, they aren’t saying “death to Americans”. A government/state is a regime, not all it’s people, despite how much as nationalists love to stoke that sort of patriotism. So I have no problem with the slogan, I call for the fall of the US imperialist regime.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_to_America#Interpretation_and_meaning - has some confirmations from various Iranian politicians and a travel writer.
Usians: “hate the government not the people”
Usians when hearing someone else say “hate the government not the people” about USA: “we’re gonna kill you”
OK, so what’s the plan for bringing death to the USA without killing a single American?
Where is that constraint coming from? “Death to [x]” is a statement of a desire.
“Death to Americans” would be a call for the deaths of citizens. Obviously Iran doesn’t consider the typical American citizen to be oppressing them, so they are not interested in calling for that.
Someone yelling “death to America” could still be supporting the death of George W. Bush or Donald Trump, who are Americans. It could even involve combating many in the US military. That’s still very different from calling for “death to Americans”, because the target is the regime, not its citizens simply for being citizens.
But I still think you’ve raised an interesting discussion to have so I’ve tried to answer it.
In an ideal world, regime change. Relatively peaceful dissolution is preferable and possible (consider the death of the Soviet Union).
However, given the ruthlessness of the people with the most power in the US, I suspect they would gladly kill millions of Americans before even considering a peaceful surrender. People are shot by the state in regular protests, let alone one directly threatening the state (case in point - Jan 6 had a protester killed by police). So unless some interesting lucky opportunities open up (such as a military coup), the USA will (continue to) kill Americans to maintain stability, regardless of whether those opposing the USA kill a single American.
Given that situation, it sounds like any resistance to the US is bad because will likely involve deaths of innocent people. Yes, but the other side of the story is that to do nothing ‘‘also’’ results in the deaths of innocent people. To the people running the show, it’s completely normal to oversee the constant atrocious social murder of many thousands each year through poverty, artificial scarcity of food and medication, healthcare denial and other neglect in the name of profit. We overproduce enough food to feed everyone, there’s enough land and property to house everyone.
To do nothing is to allow many Americans to keep dying each day from easily preventable deaths. To fix that system will most likely kill many Americans in the process. You can almost simplify it down to a trolley problem - there’s no clean solution whichever choice you make. But, for each of us, there is a correct decision.
Maybe it’d be a good idea to use a word other than death, which is clearly being misinterpreted to mean killing people. “Dissolution of [x]” obviously isn’t as snappy, but it’s an improvement at least in terms of accuracy of intent.
I agree, it’s very tactless.
Mean, mode, or median?
What’s the standard deviation look like?
i’m more concerned with what the standard deviant looks like i got to keep up with my fashion
From post-apocalyptic raiders to antihero Casey Jones, weaponized and armored sports gear is always stylish and fashionable.
i feel like we’re less post-apocalyptic and more apocalyptic and maybe i should get more eyes
It’s not correct, but would be nice.
I want to believe
Thankfully, nothing lasts forever.
Despite all the and suffering it has caused and will cause, Trump admin has at least handed us the beginning of a breakdown in US hegemony as trust has eroded with other nations who are all busy pivoting away from it right now.
Unfortunately upon breaking the gridlock, other nations are scrambling to maintain the status quo rather than leaning into the future by redoubling commitments to address human and climate crises before it’s too late for the humans.
Rome lasted 1,480 years.
in b4 someone says that it is an “average”.
that number is made up BS anyways
Forget about averages, his post isn’t even factually correct. Rome did not last 1,480 years.
depends how you define Rome, from 753bc and the Byzantine empire lasted all the way to 1453CE. so Rome lasted longer if you count it as the Roman empire.
The Roman Empire began in 27 BC with Augustus, the first emperor of Rome. It eventually split in half in 395 AD. The Western Roman Empire, including the city of Rome itself, fell in 476 AD. The Eastern Roman Empire, or the Byzantine Empire was centered on Constantinople, not Rome.
yhea, but they still considered themselves Roman.
the point is that it is impossible to determine when exactly an empire begun or ended.
we could argue for weeks and the Roman empire, and that’s just one of countless empires.
The point is Rome did not last 1,480+ years as you and the other poster claimed, not even close. Odoacer conquered Rome and became the first barbarian king of Italy in 476 AD.
tell that to the byzantines who claimed to be the successors of the Roman empire. don’t think they got the memo
The Roman Empire split in 395 AD. The Western Roman Empire, including the city of Rome itself, fell in 476 AD.
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Even if this statistic wasn’t bullshit, this comic has an inherent cruelty to it that ironically feels very American
Made-up bullshit
Facebook type posting
Empires don’t end, they fizzle out.
Real empires go for much longer.
The US will not be more than a shitstain in the pages of history.Does this picture originate from a comic?
Soon please k thnx
