• ERROR: Earth.exe has crashed@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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    3 days ago

    OMG here we go again.

    In most democracies, there are election poll watchers from the major parties, and also independent poll watchers to observe and make sure no shenanigans are going on. The Democratic and independent poll watchers would’ve reported any election irregularities. I not seeing widespread reports of such.

    States run elections, even safe blue states shifted 10+ percentanage more red.

    So my conclusion: The vote count itself is probably legit.

    The real “rigging” was done via unlimited political spending legalized by the Citizens United ruling to unfairly buy propaganda spreading lies. That, exacerbated by inflasion, voter apathy, democratic party incompetence, voter roll purges, and most important of all: Human Stupidity. And this timeline is the result.

    Think about all those people getting scammed all the time. You see those stories and be like “OMG how can they be so stupid”. Well this is the same, but with politics and elections. Talk to people and you’ll see how dumb they are. Some people genuinely think that fascist coup plotter will fix things. 🤦‍♂️


    These elections (like the one OP is talking about) are election has lower turnout, so it probably favors democrats, since democrats are more energized to vote after the defeat last november.

    • auraithx@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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      3 days ago

      There was a ton of irregularities reported btw. I forget the exact number but like 20-40 with enough evidence that they were bringing the cases forward. But when Trump came in he appointed someone to a role who dismissed them all.

        • auraithx@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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          3 days ago

          Took me a while but I found what I was thinking of.

          It was the Fired FEC head

          But it wasn’t because she was fired they didn’t go forward, it’s because the board is 3/3 dem/rep so a republican would need to ‘flip’

          Asked by Alicia Menendez, “What is most alarming to you?” she replied, “Well, I can’t talk about anything that would be currently before the commission by law, complaints that are filed and any investigatory action remains confidential until the cases are closed.”

          She then continued. “But I can tell you that in the past we have had 63 separate complaints filed against the president or his political committees –– and not all complaints are well-founded not all complaints are worth the agency’s time to pursue. But our nonpartisan professional staff has advocated that we pursue 31 of those cases and, in not a single one, did we get four votes to move forward.”

          This is one of the things they talked about in the election interference hearings in December too

          “Almost every matter that the FEC has not pursued is associated with the former president [Trump]” (Rep Torres, about 57minutes in)

          Link to thread discussing: https://www.reddit.com/r/somethingiswrong2024/s/JUGCXE7Gab

          Link to full hearing on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/live/mIDJ5whpSHQ

      • ERROR: Earth.exe has crashed@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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        3 days ago

        I mean I literally said this:

        The real “rigging” was done via unlimited political spending legalized by the Citizens United ruling to unfairly buy propaganda spreading lies. That, exacerbated by inflasion, voter apathy, democratic party incompetence, voter roll purges, and most important of all: Human Stupidity. And this timeline is the result.

        My point is, the actual vote count itself is legitimate, but the fairness of the election as a whole was definitely unfair.

        All elections in the history of the US has been biased in favor of the more regressive candidate. This one is not much different.

  • Queen HawlSera@lemm.ee
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    3 days ago

    Trump’s been talking about how he won because of Elon “being good with computers”

    Investigations were launched over less

  • OldWoodFrame@lemm.ee
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    3 days ago
    1. He didn’t “handily win” he won by 1-2 points in the swing states.

    2. It tracks with an anti-incumbent sentiment, people are not happy with inflation so they voted against the incumbent, they’re still not happy and still voting against the incumbent.

    • unphazed@lemmy.world
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      3 days ago

      And he only won because a few million people who voted in 2020 sat on their asses instead of voting this time.

        • Fedizen@lemmy.world
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          3 days ago

          Democrat politicians have already decided “DEI” was the problem. Good luck getting those spineless cowards something resembling a moral framwork.

            • Fedizen@lemmy.world
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              1 day ago

              No, largely the “centrist” democrats that are doing this as a response to republicans embracing post truth death cultism. The progressive wing is mostly pushing back but I’ve seen at least two sniveling dems say some absolutely vile, trumpist shit.

            • CarbonBasedNPU@lemm.ee
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              3 days ago

              no they are pointing out the Dems are doing literally anything to shift the blame from the party. I have seen so fucking many people argue that the dems should just drop all the trans issues and let the republicans win on it. Others blaming leftists for pointing out the problems with Harris.

        • Fredthefishlord
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          “yeah because they supported genocide I didn’t primary them and instead let the guy who supports 2 genocides including the same one win”

          Wow fuckin clowns

      • UltraGiGaGigantic@lemmy.ml
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        3 days ago

        Sounds like First-past-the-post voting doesn’t accurately represent the people with its inherent two party system. Are you working towards giving these people representation in your state by pushing for electoral reform?

    • Skullgrid@lemmy.world
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      He didn’t “handily win” he won by 1-2 points in the swing states.

      he won the popualar vote despite all the EVERYTHING

      • UnpluggedUnfettered@lemmy.world
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        3 days ago

        That tracks with the reality that half of America really likes the guy.

        America is the country that had almost 70% of Republicans polling that Nixon shouldn’t resign the day before congress decided to impeach.

        He won. It is unfortunate, but not unsurprising or requiring a leap of faith, and it has all evidence supporting it, factually.

        Now we need to take that reality and address it and the root causes–rather than fighting facts with preferred fantasy like the right wing has done at every opportunity.

        • Dragonstaff@leminal.space
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          I know that Republicans spent 2020 looking for bamboo in ballots, but haven’t been able to find even hand recounts in swing states. I think Democrats are so invested in being “good losers” that there has not been enough investigation into an election where Republicans certainly cheated as much as they were able to.

          • Zink@programming.dev
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            Apparently doing the “every accusation is a confession” projection routine years ago with the brazen 2020 election conspiracies has completely disarmed the democrats’ ability to do anything. They have become the political version of the Washington Generals (the basketball team who’s job it is to make things interesting for the audience by losing to the Harlem Globetrotters).

        • JcbAzPx@lemmy.world
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          It’s not half of America, it’s half of half of eligible voters, and even some of them were holding their nose to do it.

          If the DNC was even remotely capable of caring about everyday people they could have easily won. They need to crawl out of the corporate pockets they’ve been living in and actually try to fix things if they don’t want to go the way of the Whigs.

    • olympicyes@lemmy.world
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      There was no mandate. In 2024, every incumbent party in every liberal democracy worldwide lost ground because of inflation concerns.

  • unmagical@lemmy.ml
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    4 days ago

    There absolutely is way. The dems are routinely ineffective and they lost a lot of votes from 2020 because of the whole “Harris backs Israel in a genocide” thing.

    Just cause the greater evil won doesn’t mean the left needs to start peddling unfounded “stolen election” conspiracy theories. It’s completely reasonable that enough people realized they fucked up by voting for Republicans, Third Party, or abstaining and took this as an opportunity to refute the actions of the current administration.

      • WhatAmLemmy@lemmy.world
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        4 days ago

        I’ve also seen evidence that the same systemic election interference, voter purges/disenfranchisement, gerrymandering, etc — the leading reason for GOP wins over the last 20 years, and were never legitimately addressed or removed — were more than enough to secure Trumps win of the EC.

        • LillyPip@lemmy.ca
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          I’ve seen plenty of evidence that disenfranchisement was off the charts, and it hit me personally.

          In Michigan, I’ve been disabled and homebound for years and have never had issues voting by mail, but this time rather than my usual automatic mail-in ballot, I got an application for a vote-by-mail ballot after the deadline. I was still registered, but I had to go in person.

          I’d have crawled through hot broken glass naked to vote, so I did it, but only because I live in a small enough town there wasn’t a queue. If I’d had to vote in the city, I could not physically have done it.

          I’ll bet plenty of others like me simply could not.

      • TranscendentalEmpire@lemm.ee
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        4 days ago

        What if there was statistical evidence of probable tampering?

        All of the allegations listed on this site have fairly logical explanations when given context.

        Republicans pushed against mail in ballots hard, so it makes sense that Harris would do better with mail ins and trump would do better with early voting. It also makes sense that trump voters mainly cared about the presidential election compared to Harris voters. It also makes sense that Harris underperformed as Democrats didn’t get to participate in a primary. Basically it makes sense for there to be abnormalities in an abnormal election, that doesn’t mean there’s “statistical evidence of probable tampering”.

        Plus Trump, in his rambling, said something that [heavily implies tampering with vote counting machines

        Right… But this means that we would be questioning trump’s honesty based on assuming that trump is being honest on this particular subject. He’s a troll who likes to stir the shit and make people assume he’s more competent than he really is, the same as musk.

        It does not behoove progressives to question the reliability of elections without real evidence. Having people question the reliability of elections only serves conservative agenda of making it harder for people to vote.

        • almost1337@lemm.ee
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          Abnormal Clustering: In contrast to Election Day voting, Early Vote results display an unusual pattern: once approximately 250 ballots have been processed a visible shift is observed, resulting in a high degree of clustering and unusual uniformity. This is a departure from expected human voting behavior.

          This is not logically explained by an “abnormal election”.

          • TranscendentalEmpire@lemm.ee
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            It’s also not really explaining much either. They don’t give examples of other elections to compare it too, and their own methodology is lackluster.

            They are basically saying that after approx 250 votes trump started to pull ahead, which is to be expected as a lot of early Dem voters were mail ins.

            To be honest it just seems like they are trying to purposely confuse normal phenomena with statistical diction, and alluding to claims without providing context.

            Usually when making claims this grand you would also want evidence to match it. You’d also want to provide an example to compare it to previous elections utilizing the same methodology.

      • Saleh@feddit.org
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        What is this website? I couldn’t find any link to their board directly, but only through a search engine. Their board is just named with three first names and there is broad statements made about them all being passionate, data analysts, bla bla.

        There is no specific “CV” for them. E.g. something like “X studied computer science and worked as a data analyst for ten years”.

        And the plots where they claim “suspicious” patterns looks like any aggregate. As the total number of votes go up, each machine is more likely to get towards the overall turnout, so your distribution peaks gets higher and your scatter plot scatters less. You see the same pattern with the Election day machines. Just that they only go up until 125 votes, rather than 250 or more total votes. So the spread remains stronger. Also the number of machines for early day voting is 964, whereas there was 3,116 machines for election day voting. This is another basic truth of statistics. As N goes up, the shape of your distribution gets more uniform.

        So what do we see? We see exactly what is to be expected with a higher number of votes per machine. That the distribution gets narrower. And we see what is to be expected with a higher number of machines. That the distribution between machines gets more evenly.

        Ignoring third party votes, this is a classical binomial distribution and you can test all of these effects easily by making your own “draw n out of N” tests.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

        The only argument is that there is a higher result for Trump with early voting as opposed to election day voting. And that can needs to be analyzed in the context of demographics and other factors. For instance people who can take off work for election day voting have more white collar jobs and are demographically more inclined to vote Democrats. But of course accounting for these factors is not part of this “analysis”.

        I am not saying that manipulations are out of the question. But these people are clearly trying to bamboozle you with deliberate misinterpretations of statistics.

      • earphone843@sh.itjust.works
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        4 days ago

        Not to mention Musk’s DOGE people publishing their vote generation scrip on Git. You tell it the outcome you want, and it’ll make ballots to match.

        • GissaMittJobb@lemmy.ml
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          So I get how this could sound compelling with that framing, but note that:

          • This was part of a hack project by 4 students in 2020
          • The tool they built in the hack was an ML computer vision system to validate ballots, in an effort to reduce mail-in ballot rejection rates
          • As a part of testing this project, they needed a way to generate a large amount of ballots which the system could then validate
          • Five years later, one of the authors of this hack works for DOGE

          Like, take a look at the code - it’s trivial, in large part because it was made by college students in their early academic career. Creating something of similar caliber would be extremely trivial.

          That this student hack project would have been used as a part of a greater scheme of election fraud seems highly unlikely.

          • DogWater@lemmy.world
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            It’s funny because student hacks are currently being given access to the entire Treasury payment system for the federal government and have leaked classified data about our spying capabilities.

    • earphone843@sh.itjust.works
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      You honestly think the party of “Every accusation is a confession” who spent 4 years screaming about election fraud didn’t commit election fraud?

      • Saleh@feddit.org
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        It is better to go for specific leads and investigate those, rather than throw blanket conspiracies. The latter only helps Trump in abolishing democratic processes altogether.

    • auraithx@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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      There’s actually quite a lot of evidence.

      https://electiontruthalliance.org/

      https://smartelections.substack.com/p/so-clean

      The tabulators switched after 500 votes and restricted dems to 45%, the data looks artificially smoothed to hide this. The same pattern is visible on elections going back to 2014.

      They also found the remote access code for Dominion machines on a public repo with the private admin password in it, there’s evidence of breaches all around the country from people associated with Trump. They got caught red handed, told us they were doing it the full time.

      And that’s before we get to the voter suppression, and 10-20% of the country being in a state of algorithmically induced psychosis.

      • jj4211@lemmy.world
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        A lot is made of the ‘drop-off’, which is easily explained by the fact that Trump is a unique phenomenon. People are shocked that some Trump voters might swing towards a democrat downballot, and I can’t imagine the mindset personally, but I acknowledge it exists. Remember, they aren’t Republican voters, they are Trump voters. Further, NC has a history of voting for democrat state offices and republican federal offices.

        I think if they were going full tampering, you wouldn’t see the drop-off, because they’d rig the down-ballot as well.

        As to the graphs look funny, well, I think I’ll need to see more analysis from more data by a broader set of analysts. I know that statistics will say anything if you torture the numbers enough, so I’m not going to get too invested in visualizations from one source.

        Scrutinizing the vote is fine, but feel like this looks more like denial than an educated analysis.

        For this case specifically, again, a ‘Trump’ voter is not a republican voter, the democrat party is way more energized to vote against a would-be Trump ally than before the election. Finally, I don’t know about this race, but it’s possible that those two in particular have something in the local population making the democrat more popular. For example in NC the republican governor candidate was way specifically a problem, so there’s a much easier explanation for why he lost by an anomalous amount.

        • auraithx@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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          While it might seem simple to attribute the drop-off phenomenon to personal preferences for Trump or against Harris, the SMART Elections analysis shows that this pattern is far more complex and inconsistent with such an explanation. For instance, if Harris were uniquely unpopular, you’d expect her drop-off to be uniformly large across all states, but it isn’t. In Michigan, her drop-off is negligible (0.87%), while in Montana, it’s a staggering -19%, even though Montana has little connection to the pro-Gaza movement that critics say might have influenced her support. Similarly, the Republican drop-off (votes for Trump but not for down-ballot candidates) is just as significant, sometimes exceeding the margins of victory in key swing states. Down-ballot candidates refer to those running for lower-profile positions, such as governors, state legislators, or other local offices, as opposed to high-profile ones like the president. This suggests the issue isn’t simply about liking Trump or disliking Harris but instead points to a mix of unusual voter behaviors or even potential systemic issues in how votes were cast or counted. The consistent pattern of drop-off across vastly different demographics and states demands more scrutiny, not simple assumptions.

      • haui@lemmy.giftedmc.com
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        Thats pretty impressive. Sad it took 10+ years for the first comprehendible mention of it. Let’s go on like this but a little faster please.

        It is absolutely insane that only a couple million worldwide are on the fediverse. This information can NOT AT ALL be on single, non federated websites. Federate this stuff immediately.

        Edit: correction and addition -> nice one with the algorithmic induced psychosis. I wish we could get some psychologists on this to make it actual science so its not some randos like us screaming into the void.

    • surewhynotlem@lemmy.world
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      The problem is the down ballot. I’m having trouble believing that a whole lot of people went out there and voted for Trump for president, and Democrats everywhere else.

      I understand staying home. I understand voting Republican. But lots and lots of split ballots?

    • Cethin@lemmy.zip
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      I don’t disagree with the sentiment, but I think it’s more to do with them saying how great “the economy” is. They didn’t even try to appeal to the working class. They just told them they should be appreciative. They lost because they eschewed the left.

    • technocrit@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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      they lost a lot of votes from 2020 because of the whole “Harris backs Israel in a genocide ” thing.

      FTFY. It wasn’t just the genocide. It was also this kind of denialism and apologism.

      Just cause the greater evil won doesn’t mean the left liberals needs to start peddling unfounded “stolen election” conspiracy theories.

      Libs are right-wing.

    • NatakuNox@lemmy.world
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      It wasn’t just Harris’s stance on Palestine that lost her the election. It was because they ran right on nearly every policy. Honestly I think abortion was the only topic they remained aligned with their base on. Mass deportations, went right. Wealth redistribution, token jesters. Universal health care, they laughed in sick and poor people’s faces. On and on, they told their base to go pound sand or have Trump as president. Whelp here we are.

    • Katana314@lemmy.world
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      Even if I consider election tampering a vague possibility, they’d never get away with it if that’s all it was. They likely aimed for a combination of factors, between misinformation, voter suppression, and/or vote tampering. Plus, people have said that public behaviors in many red states are that people are “pleased” with the result. This could be a vocal minority, but it’s hard to judge for sure.

      I’m also not going to link to Greg Palast as “proof” of tampering - just that if we were under a responsible administration, there’s enough circumstantial oddities I’d want the election investigated for certainty (just as we did in 2020 even after Biden won).

      • auraithx@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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        They did do a variety of things.

        • limited the dems to 45% on the tabulators after 500 votes
        • suppressed enough votes that they would’ve lost if it weren’t for the massive voter purges and other legislation they shoved through
        • algorithmically induced psychosis in 20% the population

        If any one of these had failed they would’ve lost.

      • Kitathalla@lemy.lol
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        Plus, people have said that public behaviors in many red states are that people are “pleased” with the result.

        Just this weekend I had to overhear a conversation about how terrible trans people are, and how good it was that trump is doing things about it.

    • Fashim@lemmy.world
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      Very important to keep in mind that even if evidence suggests the election was rigged that there are plenty of actors (Russia for example) that would want Trump in power to destabilize the states

      Not pointing fingers and looking at this objectively is the best way for it to gain traction

  • HighFructoseLowStand@lemm.ee
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    Let’s be frank: it was a special election where about a tenth of eligible voters turned out.

    Trump ain’t gonna see an FDR level midterms victory, unless he manages to destroy the American democracy totally, but I wouldn’t look at this as evidence of some major shift by itself.

  • inclementimmigrant@lemmy.world
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    And what we’ll see is by next election this guy will lose his seat because Republicans and Independents are dumber than goldfish.

  • Zink@programming.dev
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    Yeah sure they’re a bunch of evil criminals, so if they had the methods to cheat they probably did.

    But let’s say that tomorrow there are worldwide headlines about some irrefutable smoking gun evidence. Or maybe Musk goes on TV being a little bit too high, or Trump gives an interview while a few neurons too many wither and die in his skull, and they say they did it, tell us where to find the evidence, and say it was worth it and they did it because they are patriots trying to save the country. Just doubling down on the old “He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.”

    DOES ANYTHING EVEN HAPPEN? Who is gonna do something about it?

    The absolute most extreme result I could possibly see being reality would be that Trump manages to get Musk accused and convicted for the interference. That would be just as funny as it is unlikely, but it would fix nothing.

  • jontree255@lemmy.world
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    People on the left need to stop peddling this “Trump stole the election” stuff. It plays right into his rhetoric about our elections being rigged and allows him to cry again whenever his side loses. The comment in the screenshot looks like a fucking bot anyway.

    Dems didn’t dump Biden early enough and the average American voter is dirt fucking stupid. Plus you’re telling me there’s some sort of massive conspiracy to alter votes in 7 different states with separate election systems and no one blabbed?

    While I agree that every accusation is a confession until we see some hard proof that’s peer reviewed I’m skeptical. We shouldn’t be focusing on the past anyway, it doesn’t solve our current problems. We need to focus on the present and future.

    • Scrubbles@poptalk.scrubbles.tech
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      Agreed. Fact is I don’t think they even needed to. The electoral college does most of it for them, and then when over half the nation doesn’t vote, and on top of that many Democrats just didn’t vote, it’s pretty obvious exactly what happened.

      • KombatWombat@lemmy.world
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        64% of the eligible population voted last presidential election, down from the record 66% in the previous. And Trump won the popular vote. We need reform but turnout is less of a problem than it has been historically.

    • MDCCCLV@lemmy.ca
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      People were unhappy with inflation and stuff and so they vote out the incumbent, it’s as simple as that. 100% the opposite party wins if things are going very badly.

      • Korhaka@sopuli.xyz
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        I assumed this is why Musk is tweaking algorithms to show more positivity now that he is president

        • Schadrach@lemmy.sdf.org
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          I assumed this is why Musk is tweaking algorithms to show more positivity now that he is president

          What algorithms would he tweak to “show more positivity”? Remember, one of the Dem arguments was basically looking at macroeconomic indicators and claiming things were going well, which was wildly out of line with what people on the ground were actually experiencing.

          By and large, working class folks don’t give a shit about macroeconomic indicators, they care about being able to afford what they need to live their lives and ideally being able to not spend every penny on necessities. “Inflation and stuff” as the user above put it, but as seen at checkout rather than on a spreadsheet.

    • ZombiFrancis@sh.itjust.works
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      A local special election being won doesn’t mean a whole lot, either. Non-presidential elections and especially ones without Trump on the ballot inspire a very different voting group. This wasn’t a federal election, either.

      So my wager is on some combination of the following:

      1. Really low turnout.
      2. Mentioned working class.
      3. Didn’t mention Trump.
    • ninjabard@lemmy.world
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      4 days ago

      If he stole the election, and he did, then that needs to be drummed into the heads of the ones who actually voted for him. He doesn’t care about anyone but himself or anything except whatever he defines as winning.

        • ninjabard@lemmy.world
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          3 days ago

          Rampant election tampering. The closing down of polling centers in neighborhoods that don’t fit his profile. The restrictions on mail-in ballots. Armed gravy seals at polling places for intimidation purposes. Interference and propaganda from Russia. He also explicitly stated he did in his speech.

          • zarkanian@sh.itjust.works
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            3 days ago

            Where’s the evidence?

            He also explicitly stated he did in his speech.

            That’s the way some people are interpreting those words, yes. However, this is not everyone’s interpretation; otherwise, it would be covered by every news source in the nation.

            I also don’t consider Trump a very good source for anything, and that includes information on Trump himself. He lies constantly, he rambles, he says stuff that doesn’t make any sense. He does not seem well. This was true in 2016 and is much more true today.

  • jmsy@lemmy.world
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    3 days ago

    this really draws attention to how unpopular kamala harris was and what a fucked up party the DNC is.

  • Diurnambule@jlai.lu
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    3 days ago

    Hello, sorry to disturb, can you add his name or surname or political party in the description or title so I can filter this out please?

    • bokherif@lemmy.world
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      3 days ago

      Yeah I wish there was a “political” filter on lemmy. Every post about politics is just people fighting or fearmongering lol.

    • Krauerking@lemy.lol
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      3 days ago

      You can’t filter the real world. Do your own ignoring every now and again. use that brain instead of a Boolean filter.

      • Diurnambule@jlai.lu
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        2 days ago

        So judgemental, what of I got my information from outside Lemmy and just want to come here to see funny thing and shitpost ?

        • Krauerking@lemy.lol
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          1 day ago

          Then just ignore this yourself. Barging in and demanding that everyone else do something differently because you got a whiff of it is like going to your neighbors to complain about what they made for dinner each night.

          Eventually it’s on you to do that last bit of ignoring if your goal is to ignore the world around you. Don’t make it everyone else’s problem when it’s yours.

    • splinter@lemm.ee
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      3 days ago

      When was he last time you read anything that didn’t come from social media?

  • fallowseed@lemmy.world
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    4 days ago

    your takeaway is a lot different from mine: here i’m thinking, how useless must this this katie whittington be… LOL 9+k votes (total) between them. 14 percent of the district voted in this special election. tell us again how its IMPOSSIBLE kamala lost her swing states in the general presidential election.

  • LifeInMultipleChoice@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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    4 days ago

    You know, after Mike Zimmer stopped being the defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals I lost track of what happened to him. Thought he went to the Cowboys or something. I guess we really could use some better defensive plays in the legislature though.

    (I assume this must be a different Mike Zimmer)