Still better than Trump
here
Biden guarantees you Trump. Figure it out bub.
Lol /iamverysmart
Smarter than a cohort of individuals insisting that we run a 20:1 underdog.
Sure
Hows that working out for you.
So good. How long I been living rent free bro, 3 weeks lol
If Biden dies and his tombstone is running for president, I’d still vote for his tombstone over trump.
This isn’t even a joke… Like, I keep hearing my conservative family members express that they can’t vote for “someone with dementia”. Glossing past Trump’s many, many, many senior moments, it comes down to the fact the president is supported by an entire cabinet.
If Biden gets poo brain, he’s going to rely on his cabinet. If Trump continues down his poo brain path, he will never rely on a cabinet (especially since it’s full of yes-men). He will just let the dimentia drive him, just like he did in his first term.
E.g. Airports in the 1700s, convincing everyone covid isn’t that bad prior to a vaccine, posting “white power” to his Twitter, tear gassing protesters for a Photo OP where he holds a Bible upside-down. I could go on, and on, and on…
But sure, let’s all pretend Biden’s old man brain is a real serious problem. Because sometimes he… ::checks notes:: falls on stairs, and fumbles words.
These clowns voted for fucking George W. Bush, by the way.
You know it is pretty bad when a bunch of CNN commentators think he got smoked.
CNN got bought out by right wing media a little while ago iirc
Doesn’t mean they’re wrong.
Trump would only win if the Democrat party found someone seemingly more inept than him.
I am impressed that the Democrat party managed to present not one, but two outstandingly incompetent candidates. In a row. That’s some bottom of the barrel advanced scraping techniques right there. They even managed to get a representation of both sexes.
I’m sure Mr. Biden will be terribly distraught, as soon as he is able to understand what’s happening around him at the moment.
The Democrats are still stuck in this post-Clinton seniority mindset where they unofficially pick a candidate before primaries even begin, based on who has been around the longest and who has held the highest position. Remember “it’s her turn”? Yes, yes, I know it didn’t work against Obama, but heading into the debates everyone assumed Hillary would be the candidate until Obama put on the better show. More to the point, I think Obama breaking through scared the establishment Dems into doubling down on primary fuckery. See what happened to Bernie, twice. So now we have a president who knows all the right people but plays politics with the 1990s rulebook and has a terminal case of crusty old man voice.
Still better than Trump.
Obama has absolutely absurd charisma. He’s the Democrat version of Trump - knows exactly what to say to his base and knows how to convince moderates he’s not insane.
Clinton and Biden have the charisma of a limp noodle. Sanders has absurd charisma, but he’s seen as too big of a threat to Democrat lobbyists and big corporations.
Sanders would’ve mopped the floor with Trump because he would’ve actually been able to grab the 18-44 demographic (which last saw peaks in 1992 Clinton/Gore and 2008 Obama/Biden, both to unseat a Republican and, coincidentally, a Bush).
Sanders would have been able to avoid the collapse in turnout from working-class Black people in 2016.
Sanders would’ve stopped the increasing right-wing radicalization of the youth of America, or provided a counterweight for left-wing economic radicalization.
The US federal elections are basically a pony show and the DNC doesn’t know how to play the game without throwing out their playbook.
This is about a succinct of a deconstruction of the DNCs hand in this cycle as I’ve seen. They’re effectively Ned Stark
He literally is an old man. Which is the core issue.
I do not understand how Elizabeth Warren didn’t get more interest 4 years ago. She was clearly the best candidate and one who has the kind of broad appeal Bernie Sanders does. I think I’m at a point where my belief is that the bankers who are probably gonna vote Republican anyway who fund campaigns very explicitly don’t want someone like Sanders or Warren to be president
The Democratic establishment doesn’t want people who go after their donors. Mainly big banks, but also pharmaceutical and insurance companies which if you ask me all need to be reformed and heavily regulated and a lot of people need to go to prison for what they’ve done to the country over the past 24 years. But hey, who am I, just somebody who wants better for the country that doesn’t have to do with sucking rich cocks.
One-fucking-hundred percent.
Warren was my choice over Bernie for strategic value even though I like Bernie more. If we didn’t have explicitly Republican propaganda outlets I think conservatives would have been more comfortable with her too as she was once a Republican and understands business law.
Hell she literally wrote the book on my, and others, biggest issue “the two income trap” where society has defined economic success by “family income” instead of individual incomes. People like myself suffer because we’re perpetually single so we only have one income. Family income says everything is rosy because it’s now 2 incomes. :(
Welp, we’re fucked.
No. We’re “un-fucked”.
We cant win with Biden.
We CAN win without him.
Finally the dense mother fuckers who have been denying Biden’s inadequacy have been dragged, kicking and screaming, into reality.
We’ll have a brokered convention (like all conventions before 1970’s), we’ll get “generic corporate democrat”, and they’ll be instantly polling in the low to mid 50’s and we’ll actually have a fucking chance.
Biden has had no chance at winning this election at any point in his candidacy. Ever. Look at the polling. Look at the data. He’s never stood a chance and plenty of people here and elsewhere have been trying to get this through some extremely thick skulls that have basically been insisting that we need to run an un-electable candidate.
Well the goose is cooked. The rat is out of the bag. Here comes the moose or whatever. He’s done. Adios Biden, don’t let the door hit you on the way out. You did fine on some stuff but wow you fucked up on Gaza/Israel.
Minutes after that debate Newsom was on MSNBC. We’re gonna get Newsom, or maybe Inslee; a way smarter choice would be Witmer or Andy Beshear.
And guess what? Litterally ANY GENERIC CANDIDATE PUTS 10 POINTS BACK ON THE BOARD.
Bam. Switch candidates and Democrats are instantaneously back in this race.
Good luck with Project 2025, because that’s what third party voters are voting for.
We need to get rid of FPTP voting before a 2 party system can be derailed.
Are you like, actually touched?
We’re talking about the Democratic nominee right now. Not any third party candidate.
Biden is the Democratic nominee. Sure it’s not official until August 19-22 but unless he resigns, dies, or is otherwise fully incapacitated before then, he is the candidate who will be on the ballots in November. None of those possibilities seem likely.
We haven’t had a convention. We don’t until August.
Biden is not the nominee. You should try and learn how things actually work.
Maybe look at history from time immemorial. Biden is the nominee. As unfortunate as that may be, that’s our reality.
Whats your bet? Lay down some money.
Are you? Because people are still thinking about voting third party. Despite the fact that the system in place will not allow a third party candidate to prevail. And voting third party takes away from the Democratic party vote every time.
You are just clueless.
Sure thing, Bud.
🫵 🤡
Without ranked choice voting a third party vote is throwing away a vote.
Correct. And almost always a vote that would go to a Democrat candidate.
Not only switch candidates, but have Biden have the humility to back that person. Do it in the name of Democracy, you know: this election is too important and I realize we need a stronger candidate than I can be. That would sell well, and that’s what’s needed for better or worse: a good narrative
Yeah, it takes a lot of chutzpah to say, “Look, I tried, but I can’t do it. This guy can do it, and I’m giving him my full support, you should too”.
I think just about anyone who has the confidence to run for President is narcissistic enough to think they are the only person who can do the job, so Biden, or Trump, stepping down willingly is not going to happen.
Oh, nothing about our culture would permit someone to do that. I don’t expect him to. It’s just a nice fantasy
This probably doesn’t work, and it’s probably not as good idea as anyone hopes (genuinely or not). It might happen anyway, but no matter what, we’re coasting toward a second Trump presidency, just like all the Russian agitprops here wanted all along.
If Biden is polling down 10 points or worse at the convention, they could drag someone else onto the stage, but my suspicion is that no one else outperforms him on short notice, even after his abysmal performance in the debate.
A few reasons:
- Newsom probably doesn’t want it. If he calculates Trump wins either way (not unreasonable), he’s not going to want that loss on his record since he’s already gunning for 28. He would be the best chance at getting an up-and-comer who already has good name recognition and looks and sounds good.
- Harris. If Harris wants it, she has a lot of leverage to make it hard or outright impossible for the party to push anyone else out in front of her. She’s a poor candidate for a lot of reasons, but she’s also the most attached to Biden. That’s both good and bad for her. If they want to run anyone else, they have to have her playing ball too. Ask yourself, if you were Kamala Harris, would you give up your only conceivable chance at the Oval in favor of another non-Biden candidate? Remember, in any scenario the odds are good Trump wins anyway.
- The truth may be that the party would rather just let Trump win. That sounds unthinkable, but this isn’t a secret cabal of idealists we’re talking about: it’s a bunch of self-interested rich people who want to put themselves in power. Getting them to do anything for the public good is difficult under the best circumstances. They could easily decide–rightly–that Biden is still their best shot at beating Trump. That was the call in 2020, and it paid off. Don’t forget that many of these same names being batted around now were active in the party four years ago. Newsom loses to Trump, and he’s largely seen as the best alternative. If you’re running the party and looking at those odds, you should run Biden if you actually want the best chance at winning. You might decide it’s just a lost cause and start planning for a four year long nightmare.
Newsom probably doesn’t want it. If he calculates Trump wins either way (not unreasonable), he’s not going to want that loss on his record since he’s already gunning for 28. He would be the best chance at getting an up-and-comer who already has good name recognition and looks and sounds good.
Bro Newsom was on MSNBC 15 seconds after the debate ended. Newsom is 100% gunning for the job.
Harris. If Harris wants it, she has a lot of leverage to make it hard or outright impossible for the party to push anyone else out in front of her. She’s a poor candidate for a lot of reasons, but she’s also the most attached to Biden. That’s both good and bad for her. If they want to run anyone else, they have to have her playing ball too. Ask yourself, if you were Kamala Harris, would you give up your only conceivable chance at the Oval in favor of another non-Biden candidate? Remember, in any scenario the odds are good Trump wins anyway.
This is a real issue that I think you are right to bring up. Harris can basically put the brakes on/ gatekeep whomever the nominee is going to be.
If you’re running the party and looking at those odds, you should run Biden if you actually want the best chance at winning.
Yeah you are just wildly off base here. Biden was at between a 5-20% chance of winning the election prior to this debate (not polling, but probability). He’ll be in the 3-10% range after this. Did you watch the post debate coverage? CNN’s only topic of conversation was that we need to replace Biden. This is CNN! They are the party insiders. He’s cooked.
Newsom was on MSNBC singing Joe’s praises, just like he would have done regardless, because Newsom wants to be president, but Newsom also polls worse than Biden. That’s not hypothetical. Those polls already exist, and a drop in Biden’s numbers isn’t automatically a boost for Newsom. If Newsom thinks losing in 24 hurts his viability in 28, he wouldn’t do it. And who could blame him? It’s five months to the election.
The point is: It’s possible that all of the options are bad. Biden was in the mid-forties before the debate and the thirties after. He went from near toss-up to probably losing if the election were yesterday/today. Newsom might out-poll Biden today, but that’s not the contest.
The contest is with Trump. It’s not good enough to poll better than Biden. You have to actually carry all of Biden’s states and then some. If I’m Newsom and deciding whether to try to cobble together a five-month campaign and limp to November to save the DNC from itself and protect Amtrak Joe’s legacy when I’m starting 15 points in the hole or run my own campaign against the likes of a Haley or DeSantis also-ran once Trump is term-barred, dead, or both in four years, I’m not taking a risk at the convention unless someone makes me very, very confident that I could win.
And there’s the rub. Newsom wants to be president, and he’d love to be president in six months, but he’s not going to take over a campaign that’s already lost. If the party thinks Trump wins no matter what–not an unreasonable conclusion–why on earth would they burn their best shot of a rebound in 28?
Biden was in the mid-forties before the debate
Bro Biden was in the mid thirties before the debate.
Uh… okay, bro. You know that Donald Trump is also running in this election, right? Biden could be running single digits, and it still wouldn’t change the calculus: If a Biden alternative can’t beat Trump, they’re not going to put an albatross around the neck of their political career just to lose in November.
You’ve got the entire thing backwards: Biden is the albatross.
ANY other democrat polls better than Biden. Biden is the worst possible democrat to be running. Period. Except maybe Hillary, and even then, she’d be doing better than Biden right now.
You swap out Biden with literally any hollow blue suit, and you are suddenly 10 points up in the polls.
Just bumping this to remind you how entirely and completely wrong you were.
LOL. A lot of flowery language there but not much substance. The Dems can’t switch now. Trump can instantly snatch on to that and attack whoever replaces Biden as an inferior desperate backup. Trump will say you Democrats have no idea what they’re doing and they can’t even stand behind their incumbent. This isn’t only about 2024 but also about the midterms. Who would vote for a party that backstabs their incumbent?
Yeah your just wrong.
You obviously don’t know the rules for the DNC or how primary’s work, or have any kind of meaningful political acumen. You are your archetypes have been spouting this plainly wrong “political wisdom” both here and across cable news for months, years even. And reality has now bucked your claims.
Bidens not the nominee. He lost that last night. And it’s a good thing. He’s losing dramatically to Trump right now.
I’ll eat my hat and comment here if Biden doesn’t gets his nomination. I didn’t say Biden is the nominee. I didn’t even use the word “nominee”. Its you who keeps attacking the straw man. But you know what? I’m 100% sure the DNC will nominate Biden. That debate performance was bad but he ain’t losing his presumptive nomination. Don’t confuse reality with what you want to happen.
Show me a picture of the hat.
@remindme@mstdn.social 55 days
Show me what hat you will eat.
Such confidence in statements that will be proven wrong in a matter of days. LOL. You’ll forget these comments by then though.
I mean I’m taking bets.
I’ll take 20:1 if you feel so generous as to give me those odds.
I’ll lay down $20: Biden isn’t the nominee; and a second $20: Biden is does not win the Presidential election.
If I’m wrong on the nominee, you get $20. If I’m wrong on them winning the presidency, another $20.
If I’m right on the nominee, you pay me $400. If I’m right on them not winning the Presidency (for any reason), that’s another $400 you owe me.
Bet? Or coward that doesn’t really believe what they believe when they are held accountable?
If you don’t like those odds, feel free to offer odds you prefer and I’ll consider them.
How would we enforce the bet?
Why 20:1 and not 1:1?
Or even 1:20 if you’re so confident?
Believe in yourself. Take the 1:20 bet.
That’ll show me.
20:1 specifically?
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
That’s just the odds of Biden (or Trump for that matter) keeling over for literally any reason whatsoever based on the social security actuarial table. So if I can get 20:1, I should be break even betting against any octogenarian.
There is a little bit better than a 1 in 15 chance, that for any 81 year old, they’ll die that year. So I hedged it to 1:20 as insurance, because I figured I’m really only betting on the first 9 months of the year. If I can get 1:20, that’s break even odds (actually slightly in my favor). Also, figure the presidency, campaigning; that shit aint a walk in the park. Probably more likely still to die in office than a standard octogenarian.
I’ll give you 10:1 if you bet at least 50 bucks. I lose, you make $50; I win, I make $500. Hows that sound?
Edit: As to how to enforce it, we can make a community and pin it there. ITs similar to what we used to do in a bar I frequented where we would bet pints (very similarly) on whatever was happening. There was a cork-board and bets would get pinned to it. And I trust you.
@remindme@mstdn.social 5 months
The DNC convention is in August, not November.
@Lifecoach5000 Ok, I will remind you on Wednesday Nov 27, 2024 at 9:42 PM PST.
Does this actually work?
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Gretchen Whitmer to the rescue? 🤞
As bad as Biden was, CNN were worse. Fuck that shitty network for allowing Trump to lie pretty much nonstop for 90 minutes unchallenged.
they gave both people plenty of time, biden is supposed to be capable of challenging on his own
I disagree. Trump indulged in a gish gallop of lies and bullshit. Biden spent too much time trying to refute some of it and in doing so wasted time which he could’ve used to make his own points.
There should’ve been moderation in place to stop this, there was none.
which he could’ve used to make his own points.
Well I mean he did let everyone know we finally beat Medicare.
Certainly the “moderator” isn’t expected to moderate the thing! /s
It wouldn’t do Biden any favors to be the third most charismatic person on the debate stage.
It takes longer to debunk a lie than to say one. It’s easy to spout out a hundred lies in two minutes, but it takes longer than that to debunk them without just saying “No, that’s a lie” to every one, which also sounds dumb if Trump is saying that, too.
And if Biden wasn’t senile he would have been able to do that.
This post truth thing is a real problem because the average person does not bother checking facts. What they notice is some division, controversy etc. not that one person is lying. Also any moron can see that Biden is old.
Someone with simple answers wins these debates. Notice how Biden says the right things all the time but he won’t reach people like this.
Notice how Biden says the right things all the time
Are you talking about during the debate? “We finally beat Medicare!” ain’t that.
And if you think Biden said the right things about the rail strike or protests around the weapon shipments to Israel you’re living in some kind of grand delusion that excludes millions of people you’re depending on to get Biden re-elected.
When Jon Stewart referred to Biden’s expression as resting 25th amendment face. 💀
alarm bells?
wait they didn’t know he was old before this debate?
Apparently millions of people during the 2020 primaries didn’t math long enough to realize Biden would be 86 years old after two terms.
I distinctly remember that before I left Reddit, I had some lovely discourse with someone who was absolutely inconsolable over my opinion that Biden was too old for the job. Got called ageist and everything else they could think of.
Trust me, I hate being right.
I had a grandmother who died at 88 but was still sharp until that day she passed. It’s clear Biden needs to retire, he’s cognitively unable to act as a president, the media and Democratic establishment need to stop gas lightning us.
What exactly is CNN trying to accomplish with this hit piece?
You know, as much as one has to keep Machiavellian machinations and Realpolitik in mind… Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Biden did not do well. They report about it in a way that gives them clicks. There is no plan.
Calling a spade a spade is a hit piece now? Truly the least propagandized people on the planet.
In 2009, CNN’s current CEO and chairman was called the 65th most powerful person in the world by Forbes.
I wonder if he’d have any financial incentive one way or the other?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAH
Oh my god. You’ve gaslit yourself into another dimension.
…says the guy that thinks there’s going to be a brokered convention that picks somebody other than Biden.
?
Are you… touched?
Biden is going to release his delegates. Its over.
Check out who runs CNN now and all will become apparent.
You think CNN cares who wins?
They do actually. CNN was bought by open Trump supporters back in 2022. It’s been stated a few times they want CNN to become another Fox News.
Ratings and clicks–same thing they wanted with the debate.
CYA, probably.
We told you back in November but no one listened.
I’m European so obviously anti trump (I’ve learnt a lot about politicians that used similar rhetoric, had a different personal cult around them, also tried overthrowing the state - history repeats when not learning from it) but damn, Biden was bad. I’d still vote for Biden simply to avoid trump, but I fear he has no chance to get >50% after that performance.
The democrats hopefully see the writing on the wall and replace him before it’s too late.
It’s over. It was honestly over long ago, it’s just playing out in slow motion.
It will probably continue to play out for another thirty years at least. Increasingly horrible, so at any point “eight years ago” feels like back when things were sane, except we lost our minds decades ago already.
Sorry we’re the nation equivalent of DJ Khaled; we think we’re “suffering from success” but in truth we actually are and we don’t know it.
Problem for dems is that it’s way too late to replace him now. They had to accept reality last year and run a real primary. Instead they waited until the last moment, and now there’s not enough time for somebody new without an existing voter base to start campaigning.
There’s no way Biden can win. According to polls, he’s losing all the swing states, and that was before this debate took place. The DNC is going to give us Trump because they are elitist and don’t actually care about democracy.
Thankfully, he doesn’t actually need to win the majority vote (look up the electoral college if you’re curious/horrified), unfortunately that fact mostly benefits Trump.
It may already be too late to replace him. It would definitely be risky. And it’s not gonna happen unless Biden himself says so. If he runs against whoever the DNC were to pick to run against him or would guarantee a Trump win.
What’s riskier: Replacing him, or keeping him?
Honestly I have no idea
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authoritarian fascist
Please just say fascist, authoritarian has horseshoe theory vibes which we don’t allow on this com.
You don’t really have a choice. Biden basically just joke show to support Trump being elected and don’t get me started on that nightmare. There’s really only two responses to this but it ain’t electing and I ain’t gonna say it here.
I’m off to start my fire for this dark fucking night.
I’m more worried that he won’t win the election rather than he will win it. I don’t think the debate changes anything about that, people are likely still going to vote who they were going to vote for. He is the not Trump vote, and it’s just as important as ever if not more important to vote not Trump.
He was weak but they couldn’t adjust his mic levels? That was weird.
What if that was the max?
Then turn it up to 11
And he’s still the better choice
