Polls aren’t votes.
Vote 🔵🔵🔵
No, they’re just the best, most scientifically proven way of understanding how the votes will likely turn out.
Get your head out of your ass, please. We need action (in the form of a new candidate), not more hopium and copium.
A new candidate is not coming. Other Dems decided not to run in the primaries.
These are the choices. Now what ya gonna do with that?
Move to Canada?
I’m happy to have been incorrect
I’m happy we didn’t listen to people like you!
Fired up - ready to go!
Oh, I don’t think people like me have anything to do with it. I’d vote, I’ll vote
So I thought to myself, why is ozma / NYT / the Hill all of a sudden super interested in swing states, when before it was almost all talking about what the national polls show
And so I looked up what the NYT poll said about national numbers. The answer will shock you!
(Polls are crap, in general; I’m more just pointing out the hypocrisy of freaking the fuck out about Biden’s numbers tanking because of the debate, then when they don’t, pivoting seamlessly to freaking the fuck out because he’s 3 percentage points behind and he’ll never catch up and he’s being a moron to stay in, to now seamlessly freaking the fuck out about a new, however perfectly valid, way of looking at the polling, when he pulls ahead by 2-3 points nationally.)
Mozz, if you’re still fighting to keep Biden in the race, you’re helping Trump at this point.
I stick up for Biden on a lot of things because I think he did a great job domestically, and because his opponent is clearly so horrifying that he’ll make it impossible even to maintain Biden’s improvements, let alone go beyond him to the places that the country actually needs to go. But I’m actually fine with replacing him - just, according to some kind of coherent plan for what the Democrats should do instead, and a convincing case that it’ll be an improvement. In that case, then sure, let’s rock and roll.
I do react negatively to just a shrieking tide of misleadingly negative news about him - like, say, reacting to the news that he’s now up by 3 points in a national poll by pivoting to some other thing to talk about, using a framing that creates a narrative that he’s steadily losing support week by week and it’s insane that he’s even considering staying in the race, because it’s a lost cause. That I would fight against, yeah - not because I necessarily think it’s proven that him staying in is the right answer, but because that narrative is a bunch of transparent horseshit unsupported by the facts.
Hope this helps clear up the confusion.
You, as well as I do, know national polls are not a good indicator. Swing states, electoral college are what wins it.
I bet I will not need to look further than one week back in your postings to find some histronics about how Biden is behind by however many single-digit points in a national poll and that’s a big deal
Edit: Found it! It was an inference from a single percentage point of difference between him and Trump in a national poll.
Poll finds Biden damaged by debate; with Harris and Clinton best positioned to win
The national poll, conducted and commissioned by the firm Bendixen & Amandi after Biden’s politically disastrous debate and shared exclusively with POLITICO, found Biden trailing Trump, 42 percent to 43 percent.
Vice President Kamala Harris is now running ahead of Trump, 42 percent to 41 percent, the survey found.
Pretty cool that we found out now that he’s no longer damaged by the debate, since his national poll numbers are the metric – right?
Keep pushing for Biden Mozz. You’re fighting the good fight buddy. He’s doing great against a convicted felon and the worst POTUS we’ve ever had. Right? Biden is running away with the landslide. /s
That’s the spirit!
If you watched the debate and can still imagine a scenario where Biden wins Michigan (and the rest of the electoral college), I have some investments I’d like to show you…
Oh fuck off; your account has been shitting on Biden non-stop for the last year and in our system all that does is help trump.
Block me if you don’t want to stay up on political news.
And if Biden is confirmed as the nominee you’re going to support him 100% right? Are the people who don’t vote for Biden (assuming he’s on the ballot) also helping Trump?
No. I’ve said it many times here. I can’t morally support a genocider. I’m in California so my vote won’t make a difference anyways.
While I too am horrified by how the Palestinians have been forgotten, abused, and annihilated, this is Bibi’s thing. Bibi’s been stoking his base on that fire forever. It is not Biden’s fault that he happened to be in office while this latest round took place, but Biden has been more compassionate towards Palestinians than … well let’s just say more than several other leaders I could name.
Even if Biden personally murdered every single person who’s died in Gaza, Trump has promised to do worse. Bibi, Captain Genocide himself, wants Trump to win. I’m sorry, “I’m not voting for Biden because of genocide” just doesn’t make any goddamn sense in this situation and I don’t buy it.
That’s why I’m not voting for either genocider/pro-genocider.
That’s like opting to do nothing and get force fed a bag of broken glass when the options were eat a plastic bag or eat a plastic bag full of glass.
Hey Mega, I’m entering this debate late, so I’m not sure why any vote on any side would be expected to support someone 100%. I can’t think of anyone I’ve ever supported 100%. Is that a requirement somewhere?
Any yes, for a bunch of people – but not all – not voting (D) for President (and just about every other race) is a help to Trump. The most obvious and dire case is people in swing states. It matters less for solid blue and red states, but it would be helpful to show a strong and active rejection of Trump given that he and his people have already announced they will be contesting the results. If you are not a U.S. citizen, or otherwise ineligible to vote in the U.S., then congratulations, it doesn’t matter if you don’t vote for Biden.
Withing a FPTP system like ours, I think when one candidate is a fascist and the other is not, yes you should vote for the non fascist candidate 100% of the time. This is the situation we will find ourselves in November regardless of who the Democratic nominee is.
I was pointing out that Ozma is once again being disingenuous with their concern that the other poster was somehow helping Trump by supporting Joe Biden’s candidacy. Ozma has no qualms with Trump, a fascist, winning the election. They simply want Joe Biden to lose. I think it’s important to point out those motivations.
And you’re correct about certain states having more weight, but that doesn’t mean we need to create a permission structure for others to stay home. The priority has to be keeping Trump out of office, not Joe Biden.
Withing a FPTP system like ours, I think when one candidate is a fascist and the other is not, yes you should vote for the non fascist candidate 100% of the time.
You mean the one doing a genocide?
If the other option is even more genocide, yes. Is that really a question?
Okay, but now you’re voting for the lesser of two fascists. It was never “one candidate is a fascist and the other is not”.
If every reluctant Biden voter joins us to demand Biden step aside or joined us in declaring “no ceasefire, no votes”, he’d have no choice but to do it. Yet, because of every enabler like you, Biden believes he doesn’t need to drop out and doesn’t need to force Israel to end its genocide. He believes he can do anything he wants and not lose a single vote.
Many of us like to ask ourselves, “What would I do if I was alive during slavery? Or the Jim Crow South? Or apartheid? What would I do if my country was committing genocide?”
The answer is, you’re doing it. Right now.
I can’t predict how a split in the timeline would resolve on paths where Biden is and is not replaced as the Democratic candidate, but I do worry that Trump will win if things don’t change. If I KNEW that Biden or Kamala Harris (or someone else) could beat Trump, I would back whichever I knew had a chance. In my family, one is sure the only chance Democrats have is to stick with Joe and another that they must Ditch Joe for a new voice with a new message to attract new voters.
I don’t know. I can’t argue about it because I don’t have any data for either case. I care, but my concerns have no where to go, so instead my current conflict is over how amazing the pro-Union speech was … at the RNC.
Don’t trust the lying mainstream media!
You know our election is done state by state, right? Less hopium and copium, and more attention to the facts please. If Biden loses just one swing state, his odds of winning the electoral college drop to single digits. No matter how many millions of people turn out in California or New York, this election is going to come down to 10,000 votes across 6 swing states. And those 10,000 folks are telling us loud and clear, “BIDEN IS TOO OLD”.
Will you listen?
Polls have increased in accuracy every election since 2016, even then it was more democrats and the media ignoring more state specific polls that showed trouble. Pretending this isn’t a huge problem is head in the sand denial.
we’re so fuckin cooked lmao, the dnc has straight up given up. the Bidenist regime and it’s stubborn refusal to negotiate with its voter base has condemned the US to another trump presidency. I hope they sleep well in the bed they made (they will, 4 years of trump won’t affect them at all. after all, they’re not the ones headed to the camps)
See you in the camps comrade! Ugh.
they’re not the ones headed to the camps
I wouldn’t be too sure about that.
And yet, if I point this out (in great alarm because I DON’T WANT ANOTHER TRUMP TERM) I will be accused of trying to harm the outcome of the election. Thanks a lot.
Biden needs to go.
Or people could actually go out and tell others to vote.
I don’t see just changing candidates doing anything; in fact, you’d probably get a ‘where were all the primaries?’ backlash
It’s not about just getting people out to vote, people don’t want to vote for Biden. This isn’t apathy, they see him as unfit.
Critically, in a two-party FPTP situation, you’d better think he’s less fit than Trump if your advice is to not vote Biden.
I’m not advising anyone, I’m stating a simple fact; Biden is showing all the signs of losing because people don’t like him and he’s too old.
He is de-energizing the party. Him. Biden is.
I voted in the primary. There was one dude on my ballot. Does that sound like a fair election to you?
Me too. I voted for Palestine. Didn’t win.
Did you pass a petition for another candidate?
So then we’re screwed already. Oof.
It’s called ‘learned helplessness.’
They tell you that you’re screwed and you believe them.
I don’t want to be one of the people who lays down and does nothing because someone posted something
“We”, he says
Approximately 100% of Biden voters would vote for his replacement. A non-zero amount of voters would also vote for this person. At this point sticking with Biden is conceding the election.
Or people could actually go out and tell others to vote.
Sure. This has been the strategy for a while, and has resulted in likely Biden voters becoming less engaged due to genocide and the general percieved cognitive decline as of late, and Trump voters becoming more engaged with events like the failed assassination attempt.
Biden voters are largely going to end up holding their nose, while Trump voterd are largely going to gleefully show up in droves, if conditions continue.
I don’t think this is a useful strategy, and will be a repeat of 2016.
I don’t see just changing candidates doing anything; in fact, you’d probably get a ‘where were all the primaries?’ backlash
If the majority of people support swapping out Biden, I think you’ll find that it won’t result in fewer voters. The DNC could also organize an emergency Primary, too. Doing nothing is handing Trump the win on a silver platter.
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While I don’t think Biden should have run for a second term, that’s not the scenario we live in. He is running, no viable Dems ran against him in the primaries. He will be their nomination. Anything else is almost Fantasyland.
Now what ya gonna do?
Watch democracy burn and drink a nice whiskey?
Happy to be incorrect. Though a year ago would have been much better
Buckle up! The wild ride begins!
It’s pretty hard to imagine how democrats can possibly win the election at this point.
They could quit sucking.
If they could, we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
So what you’re saying is no chance…
Finally some good news.
Please vote for Trump, if you don’t care about internal politics - think about millions of Ukrainians who are trapped in Ukraine right now, and for whom Trump’s presidency (and his promise to end the war) is the only hope to survive!Hahaha right. How is serving Ukraine on a platter to the Russians somehow ending the war? Because that’s what that felon child rapist’s plan is, to have Russia win the invasion that they started.
I wonder if you come across a kid being raped like trump raped kids, would you say, “just let him finish inside you and stop resisting?” Wait nvm I’m sure that’s exactly what you would say seeing as how you support that child rapist.
Trump didn’t say he will “serve Ukraine on a platter to the Russians”, he said he will force both sides to negotiate. Negotiations is how the wars end.
The rest of your reply is just baseless accusations which people resort to when they don’t have any logical arguments ;)
Lmfao fuck your traitor fuhrer he bows to Putin and his band of Nazis.
Is calling Trump a fuhrer and a Nazi really not ironic to you, considering all the documented Nazism in Ukraine (our main “hero” that we rename streets after and so on is Stepan Bandera, now please go and read a wikipedia page about him. After that, please ask a fellow Pole what they think about that great guy) that Biden is supporting?
So logically speaking it’s Biden who looks like a Nazi, but let’s hear your arguments why you think otherwise. Of course provided that you have any, and “Nazist” is not just a mean word for you that you call people who disagree with you :)There’s lot of documented Nazism in Ukraine
Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine
Therefore trump cannot be a nazi despite his plan to implement ‘Project 2025’
You have the logical abilities of squirrel shit
I didn’t really look into ‘Project 2025’ as it seems to be mostly about internal American politics, which I’m not too interested in.
Your only argument seem to be ad hominem :)
Ad hominem is to attack the persons character. I clearly stated that your logic is squirrel shit.
Any parties manifesto in the majority, will be about internal politics, but those policies will ultimately impact their relationship with external countries and shape what their foreign policies will be. You would have to be a fucking imbecile to think otherwise. (Again, not an ad hominem before you start wanking yourself into a lather)
From the wikipedia:
Often nowadays this term refers to a rhetorical strategy where the speaker attacks the character, motive, or some other attribute of the person making an argument rather than attacking the substance of the argument itself.
You’re seem to be fitting the definition quite well ;)
Saying that your argument is not ad hominem and backing it up with another ad hominem unfortunately doesn’t change that it is.But okay, let’s talk about logic then if that’s what you want!
I’ve asked folks to vote Trump to save people’s lives that are currently being murdered thanks to (among others) that “great” guy Biden.
You called Trump a Fuhrer and Nazi (without backing it up with anything at all at that point).
I pointed out that it is ironic calling Trump a Nazi, while you are (presumably) supporting Biden who is quite literally supporting Nazi government.
You’ve made a conclusion (and even framed it as a quote) that I’ve said “Therefore trump cannot be a nazi despite his plan to implement ‘Project 2025’”, despite neither me saying “trump cannot be a nazi” nor you even bringing “Project 2025” into the discussion beforehand.Well, from that I can only make a conclusion that you have “logical abilities of squirrel shit” :)
And getting back to your argument - supporting a Nazi government seems to be a way better indicator of being a Nazi than some “Project 2025” 🤷♂️
You are the opposite of correct, what a ridiculous take.
Well, feel free to ridicule this take, what’s wrong with what I said?
If Biden is elected again, the war will continue and hundreds of thousands more people will die, that may include my friends and my family and people I know.
If Trump wins, there might finally be peace.
Are you saying that if you were in my situation, and the people getting murdered/wounded were people you know, and not just people that you’ve heard about only from the TV, you would still root for the guy who will make sure as many of them dies as possible (as long as it hurts Russia as well) instead of the guy who says he will end the war?Removed by mod
Yeah, I’m not surprised by accusations of lying :)
You know what would really surprise me? Anyone actually disproving anything I say instead of just using ad hominems.
You’ve reported my message as “Blatant disinformation” - it must be very easy to disprove such blatant disinformation, I wonder why you didn’t do it and instead prefer to use insults?.. Hm…EDIT: I see your message was deleted :( To be clear - I didn’t report it or anything, I’d very much enjoy seeing you disprove the “blatant misinformation” I posted.
You’re a fucking monster, there’s a special place in hell for people like you.
Whoever deleted that post can eat shit too. Way to support this disgusting bullshit.
Ah I see, so when you say that I post “blatant propaganda”, you don’t mean that I post information that is false, you simply mean that you dislike it. Gotcha :)
Oh and I forgot to add
Way to support this disgusting bullshit.
^ This is what Biden voters think about saving lives of hundreds of thousands of innocent people - “disgusting bullshit”. Those are definitely the good guys that deserve your vote :)
My armchair cynic theory is that RFK negotiated with Trump to drop out and endorse him, in exchange for appointment as EPA head or some policy concession. Meanwhile, disaffected by poor performance and his refusal to drop out, the youth vote and other key Biden demographics either stay home in outsize numbers, or vote for Jill Stein or Cornell West. Trump would win every swing state and possibly some others if that plays out.
FDA, so he can ban all the vaccines
