It didn’t used to be that way. Big blowouts used to be common.
I think it’s a result of the GOP holding on to electoral legitimacy purely through electoral tricks which are expensive / criminal to a pretty large degree, since except for a little violent minority, almost all of the country has moved on from supporting them or anything they stand for. They don’t want to expend more money or risk than is needed, so they’ll do more or less the minimum that seems like it’ll let them hold on to power. Even that isn’t really working that well anymore, and so their grip is slipping, and with Trump now running the show and demolishing the RNC’s effectiveness just as thoroughly as he does everything else he touches, all bets are off for the upcoming election.
I think they’re planning to move to simple explicit violence during this election, since that’s all that is left if they want to avoid defeat, but you can’t completely write off how effective their propaganda is at convincing people.
The propaganda has always been my gripe. I definitely blame people for having such hate in their hearts that it works on them, but it’s the propagandists that twist reality in a way that make it “logical” for the average voter to believe their candidate is the “one who can save us.”
I don’t believe my father is that hateful, but boy did Fox News really get to him as far as “evil Democrats.”
His arguments are always economic, he doesn’t care one way or the other about trans issues, immigration, etc, but he’ll eat up anything Fox has to say about “whales dying due to wind powered generators.”
Yeah. I really don’t like the mindset that Trump voters are evil or racist, they fully understand what he’s about and they want it. A tiny percentage of them are that way; most are not. In my experience, Trump supporters I’ve talked to have been victimized by extremely powerful extremely expensive / well produced propaganda that’s created this whole alternate reality in their minds that’s extremely convincing, and they’re just trying to do the right thing within that reality.
I don’t know what the solution to that is, but treating them as bad people (and particularly, ignoring or downplaying the economic / societal abandonment of them that created legitimate anger and resentment which the propaganda can play into) is definitely not the answer.
I’m sorry, but those people have access to the exact same information I do. Maybe at first it was understandable that some people got taken in by it, but at this point there is no mistaking what Trump stands for, and anyone who continues supporting him is outright malicious or so ego driven they can’t possibly admit a mistake and will definitely follow him to untold atrocities.
I hate the terms “both sides” and “America is divided” because it implies that there is some form of symmetry to this madness. This is not the case. Trump supporters can come back to earth any time they want, but I am absolutely not going to meet them halfway to their shitty fascist endgame, even if that means we get another decade of milquetoast liberal democrats.
I’m sorry, but those people have access to the exact same information I do.
No they don’t. Or rather, the ones I’ve talked with extensively had no idea what was going on; media they genuinely trusted had given them this very incomplete, bizarre, and specifically constructed view of the world that was perfectly believable to them, but which bore absolutely no resemblance to reality. In particular it even has specific features to make it harder to be able to break yourself out of, make you resist learning new information that might challenge it. If you haven’t had your brain inside that type of box or talked extensively with people who did it’s sometimes hard to appreciate how pervasive and reality-defining it can be.
So like think of all those guys who went down to the border expecting there to be this army of Mexicans coming over and terrorizing the whole town, and they were ready to go down and help sign up for their patriotic duty to help, and they were surprised and confused when they got there and it was just a normal town. It’s not like they were like “oh okay let me start shooting any Mexicans I see on the street because that’s my main goal” – they had a perfectly humane reason for being there, in their minds. They had a perfectly humane response (like “wtf these guys lied to me, what even is going on here”). It’s easy to laugh at them because they were so wrong, but they really believed it. Because all the news they watch and all their friends they talk to and all the internet they observe told them that’s what’s going on.
I definitely will agree that there’s a way-too-large minority that’s like “hey I always wanted to shoot Mexicans / shoot up the Ramadan celebration / kill my family member who I suspect of being a Democrat.” I’m not trying to give everyone a free pass. I’m saying that the root of it for a lot of the rank and file is being duped, not being evil.
(Not that that makes them any less dangerous of course)
I hate the terms “both sides” and “America is divided” because it implies that there is some form of symmetry to this madness. This is not the case.
Fully agree on this part. The movement as a whole and its leaders are extremely dangerous and evil, and the media for the most part is looking for any excuse to avoid saying “these guys are Nazis WTF how do we stop them,” and “both sides” is one convenient excuse.
Trump supporters can come back to earth any time they want
Well, but they can’t. Not on their own. They’re either going to realize the reality through some outside force helping them see the truth, or they’re going to keep growing in numbers and fervor until their leaders can use them to enact a for-real fascist takeover.
Some of them, yeah. Not all, and maybe that’s a pretty valid reason to criticize their moral courage. But Jordan Klepper has done some pretty fascinating interviews with e.g. Nikki Haley supporters who have realized what a monster Trump is.
(Some of whom say they’ll maybe still vote for him…)
I like the cut of your jib! It’s too often I see blanket statements about all Republicans are Nazis, racist, etc. You can’t understand your opposition or why they might believe what they believe if you just see everyone as cartoon evil.
I like the idea that “no person is the villain of their own story.” As you say, they for the most part believe they are doing the right thing according to the information they’ve been subjected to. It’s an incredibly difficult problem especially as we understand the importance of a free press.
No person is the villain in their own story, yet I see people blatantly run red lights nearly every day. Most people know perfectly well the shit they do is atrocious.
In Arizona it’s simple. The Democrats are rising and the Republicans are falling. If the Arizona State Republicans don’t make a substantive change it will go back to blowouts, just in favor of Democrats instead.
If it’s a huge Democratic turn out in year X, then there’s going to be a lot of Dem voters that say “well, my vote doesn’t really matter so why bother” in year X+1. And vice versa.
So the turnout is going to edge closer and closer to equilibrium over time.
2.4 MILLION PEOPLE… Why the fuck is every goddamn election 50/50!? Why the hell is it always the fucking razors edge!?
I’m no math guy but I feel like statistically it shouldn’t be possible for almost every goddamn election to be 50/50… 49/51… For fucks sake…
It didn’t used to be that way. Big blowouts used to be common.
I think it’s a result of the GOP holding on to electoral legitimacy purely through electoral tricks which are expensive / criminal to a pretty large degree, since except for a little violent minority, almost all of the country has moved on from supporting them or anything they stand for. They don’t want to expend more money or risk than is needed, so they’ll do more or less the minimum that seems like it’ll let them hold on to power. Even that isn’t really working that well anymore, and so their grip is slipping, and with Trump now running the show and demolishing the RNC’s effectiveness just as thoroughly as he does everything else he touches, all bets are off for the upcoming election.
I think they’re planning to move to simple explicit violence during this election, since that’s all that is left if they want to avoid defeat, but you can’t completely write off how effective their propaganda is at convincing people.
The propaganda has always been my gripe. I definitely blame people for having such hate in their hearts that it works on them, but it’s the propagandists that twist reality in a way that make it “logical” for the average voter to believe their candidate is the “one who can save us.”
I don’t believe my father is that hateful, but boy did Fox News really get to him as far as “evil Democrats.” His arguments are always economic, he doesn’t care one way or the other about trans issues, immigration, etc, but he’ll eat up anything Fox has to say about “whales dying due to wind powered generators.”
Yeah. I really don’t like the mindset that Trump voters are evil or racist, they fully understand what he’s about and they want it. A tiny percentage of them are that way; most are not. In my experience, Trump supporters I’ve talked to have been victimized by extremely powerful extremely expensive / well produced propaganda that’s created this whole alternate reality in their minds that’s extremely convincing, and they’re just trying to do the right thing within that reality.
I don’t know what the solution to that is, but treating them as bad people (and particularly, ignoring or downplaying the economic / societal abandonment of them that created legitimate anger and resentment which the propaganda can play into) is definitely not the answer.
I’m sorry, but those people have access to the exact same information I do. Maybe at first it was understandable that some people got taken in by it, but at this point there is no mistaking what Trump stands for, and anyone who continues supporting him is outright malicious or so ego driven they can’t possibly admit a mistake and will definitely follow him to untold atrocities.
I hate the terms “both sides” and “America is divided” because it implies that there is some form of symmetry to this madness. This is not the case. Trump supporters can come back to earth any time they want, but I am absolutely not going to meet them halfway to their shitty fascist endgame, even if that means we get another decade of milquetoast liberal democrats.
No they don’t. Or rather, the ones I’ve talked with extensively had no idea what was going on; media they genuinely trusted had given them this very incomplete, bizarre, and specifically constructed view of the world that was perfectly believable to them, but which bore absolutely no resemblance to reality. In particular it even has specific features to make it harder to be able to break yourself out of, make you resist learning new information that might challenge it. If you haven’t had your brain inside that type of box or talked extensively with people who did it’s sometimes hard to appreciate how pervasive and reality-defining it can be.
So like think of all those guys who went down to the border expecting there to be this army of Mexicans coming over and terrorizing the whole town, and they were ready to go down and help sign up for their patriotic duty to help, and they were surprised and confused when they got there and it was just a normal town. It’s not like they were like “oh okay let me start shooting any Mexicans I see on the street because that’s my main goal” – they had a perfectly humane reason for being there, in their minds. They had a perfectly humane response (like “wtf these guys lied to me, what even is going on here”). It’s easy to laugh at them because they were so wrong, but they really believed it. Because all the news they watch and all their friends they talk to and all the internet they observe told them that’s what’s going on.
I definitely will agree that there’s a way-too-large minority that’s like “hey I always wanted to shoot Mexicans / shoot up the Ramadan celebration / kill my family member who I suspect of being a Democrat.” I’m not trying to give everyone a free pass. I’m saying that the root of it for a lot of the rank and file is being duped, not being evil.
(Not that that makes them any less dangerous of course)
Fully agree on this part. The movement as a whole and its leaders are extremely dangerous and evil, and the media for the most part is looking for any excuse to avoid saying “these guys are Nazis WTF how do we stop them,” and “both sides” is one convenient excuse.
Well, but they can’t. Not on their own. They’re either going to realize the reality through some outside force helping them see the truth, or they’re going to keep growing in numbers and fervor until their leaders can use them to enact a for-real fascist takeover.
So these guys who went to the border… Once they realized it was all fake, they swore off this media and stopped voting Republican?
Some of them, yeah. Not all, and maybe that’s a pretty valid reason to criticize their moral courage. But Jordan Klepper has done some pretty fascinating interviews with e.g. Nikki Haley supporters who have realized what a monster Trump is.
(Some of whom say they’ll maybe still vote for him…)
I like the cut of your jib! It’s too often I see blanket statements about all Republicans are Nazis, racist, etc. You can’t understand your opposition or why they might believe what they believe if you just see everyone as cartoon evil.
I like the idea that “no person is the villain of their own story.” As you say, they for the most part believe they are doing the right thing according to the information they’ve been subjected to. It’s an incredibly difficult problem especially as we understand the importance of a free press.
No person is the villain in their own story, yet I see people blatantly run red lights nearly every day. Most people know perfectly well the shit they do is atrocious.
In my experience, it’s mostly been the “You’re one of the good ones!” type of racist that gets sucked in and consider it reasonable.
As in, without some seed of racism/misogyny/etc that propaganda fertilizer would mean nothing.
But that’s my experience with magats I know.
In Arizona it’s simple. The Democrats are rising and the Republicans are falling. If the Arizona State Republicans don’t make a substantive change it will go back to blowouts, just in favor of Democrats instead.
In Arizona it’s because the Democrats are rising. Elections used to be blowouts for Republicans.
If it’s a huge Democratic turn out in year X, then there’s going to be a lot of Dem voters that say “well, my vote doesn’t really matter so why bother” in year X+1. And vice versa.
So the turnout is going to edge closer and closer to equilibrium over time.