In recent years, China’s LGBTQ+ community has been swept up in the Chinese Communist party’s broader crackdown on civil society and freedom of expression. In May 2023, a well known LGBTQ+ advocacy group in Beijing announced it was closing due to “unavoidable” circumstances. Last February, two university students filed a lawsuit against the education ministry after they were punished for distributing rainbow flags on campus.
Ironically this may serve to further them from their goals regarding Taiwan. The further they become politically and socially, the more difficult assimilation becomes. I think in 25 years it won’t be possible anymore. By then we are likely to see not an event like Hong Kong, but outright war before such a thing occurs. Geographically, any such imposition would appear as an invasion. That’s why we see China doing their best to meddle with their elections. Assuming TSMC maintains its relevance, and they gain recognition from some western powers. Not that far off if you can believe it.
So with Intel expanding processor manufacturing operations in the US (Outside Columbus Ohio, for example) to avoid the TSMC supply chain issues faced over the last few years, couldn’t that actually hurt Taiwan, as the USA will just refuse to be involved if their national interests aren’t in jeopardy?
I know that TSMC supplies globally, but what if USA just suddenly decided that the defensive “juice” just wasn’t worth the proverbial squeeze?
TLDR: US decides “Fuck it, we can produce our own processors now, you’re on your own”. Is that a realistic possibility?
Absolutely, however playing catchup in the semiconductor space is far easier said than done. Even intel gave up and started using TSMC to lay their newer nodes. So long as TSMC maintains its R&D lead they have that trump card.
I think you’re onto something there though. There has been a push in the US to onshore chip manufacturing and the situation with Taiwan is a huge motivator.