NASA Update on the Size Estimate and Lunar Impact Probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4  - NASA Science
science.nasa.gov
Since near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered in December 2024, NASA and the worldwide planetary defense community have continued to observe the asteroid, which was ruled out as a significant impact risk to Earth. New infrared observations from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope have decreased the uncertainty of the asteroid’s size and 2024 YR4...
  • PlaneMaker@feddit.org
    26·
    10 days ago

    Experts […] have updated 2024 YR4’s chance of impacting the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032 from 1.7% as of late February to 3.8% based on the Webb data and observations from ground-based telescopes.

      • Sibbo@sopuli.xyz
        1·
        10 days ago

        Until the part where they shelter on the moon. Then I somehow lost interest.

        Anyways, was an interesting read. I doubt 70 tons hitting the moon would do much to earth though. Maybe we get nice shooting stars?

    • RegalPotoo@lemmy.worldEnglish
      4·
      10 days ago

      So realistically, what would happen if there was a collision like this?

      It’s a pretty significant hit, but not enough to meaningfully change the moon’s orbit, so no long term impacts from that. Maybe a pretty meteor shower from the material ejected? Probably not enough material to cause a significant amount of surface heating.

  • LostXOR@fedia.io
    9·
    9 days ago

    I made a calculation a few weeks ago with the data available at the time, which put the odds at 1.94%. That same calculation now gives 3.7%, so I guess I did a pretty good job.

    Fingers crossed it ends up impacting, that would be quite the sight to behold.

  • madame_gaymes@programming.devEnglish
    7·
    10 days ago

    I once had a dream I was swimming in a river, and when I looked up at the night sky I saw something impact the Moon and shatter it, sending chunks down to Earth’s surface.

    Time to get that doomsday hype train rolling again for 2024 YR4! I don’t even know how large an object would need to be in order to do something like that, probably larger than this is. I guess it’ll just have to remain a dream, sigh.

    • rbesfe@lemmy.ca
      3·
      8 days ago

      Even if the moon was shattered, most of the pieces would probably just continue in their orbit.