Aside from what the others have said, there is also a 2nd exit poll, with slightly different estimations. If reality will match this one, the BSW will get into parliament. They are a splinter party of the leftists, taking a most of the tankie nutcases with them.

They won’t be in government or important opposition, but if they make it, the 2 centrist parties alone don’t have enough seats. This means they need a 3rd party to form a government, and they have no good options. The preferred party would be FDP, but they are estimated to not make it. The greens would normally be up to it, but CDU/CSU campaign has mostly run on getting the greens out of government. And the Leftist, BSW and AFD are all too extreme for the very pensioner friendly CDU/CSU.

There is a chance we simply won’t have a stable government and will have to redo this election, but from most to least likely:

• Reality is closer to the first poll, boring centrist government, AFD can try again in 4 years
• The CDU will make some meaningless concessions to the greens and the greens will fall for it
• The CDU will completely destroy any trust and form a government with AFD
• There won’t be any stable government and a new election is called.
• Any Leftists in Government
• There won’t be a stable government, our president still elects a chancellor, we will have 4 weeks of a minority government and then someone triggers new elections.