- cross-posted to:
- world@quokk.au
- cross-posted to:
- world@quokk.au
Summary
Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Service warns that Russia could launch a large-scale war in Europe within five years if NATO appears weak or divided, especially if the U.S. does not intervene.
The report outlines a timeline where Russia could attack a neighboring country within six months, escalate to a regional Baltic conflict in two years, and potentially engage NATO-wide by 2029.
The assessment comes as Trump pressures NATO members to increase defense spending and has suggested the U.S. might not defend allies who fail to meet financial commitments.
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Title is misleading, since there is already a major war in Europe started by russia
Headlines from 2011
Started by the US who can’t keep their nose out of other people’s business
Poor widdle Russia had no agency, NO CHOICE, but to invade. They were OBLIGATED to violate the Budapest Memorandum and attempt to seize Ukraine.
It was Ukraine that violated the Minsk Agreements
Off is the general direciton in which you should fuck.
The Minsk Agreements only exist as a direct result of Russia shitting on the Budapest Memorandum. The Budapest Memorandum was signed in 1994, and Russia promised to never violate Ukrainian sovereignty if they gave up nuclear weapons. The Minsk Agreements were signed as an attempt to end Russia’s invasion of eastern Ukraine, whose sovereignty you may recall they promised to never violate just 20 years prior.
Russia openly admitted they had no intention to stick to the Minsk agreements. So why should Ukraine?
No they didn’t, Russia was abiding by them.
Wrong.
“Russia is in violation of the Minsk Agreements” https://cepa.org/article/dont-let-russia-fool-you-about-the-minsk-agreements/#%3A~%3Atext=Russia+is+in+violation+of+the+Minsk+Agreements
They even took a town 6 days after signing it.
Believe it or not, the U.S. cannot force the Russian military to cross its own border into a third country.
Thoughts drift far away, A tranquil mind, void and still, Silent echoes play.
You have the remarkable ability to confidently navigate the world with a mind so barren of critical thought that even a Magic 8-Ball would outthink you in a debate.
Says the person parroting US propaganda?
Oh, I’m sorry—I didn’t realize independent thought meant regurgitating conspiracy buzzwords like a malfunctioning chatbot. Try forming an original argument instead of just copy-pasting skepticism from whatever YouTube video your algorithm fed you.
That’s rich coming from the echo chamber
ml detected vatnik opinion rejected
Good thing no one cares about liberal opinion
This checks out… if you only include putin in the definition of “people”
No, it’s still a fucking lie even then. Claiming that Putin was somehow “forced” to invade another sovereign country because the US was some kind of boogeyman is purely demented, ass-backwards abuser “logic.”
but if putin is the only person, that means every country belongs to him!
well, the US now does for sure
Would you like to tell the whole class how US is responsible for Putty bombing civilians?
True. 🤣
With what? They can’t even handle war in Ukraine and they run out of plenty of hardware.
I do not have an English translation but in this interview a lieutenant general of the German Bundeswehr says that they are observing that not all new supplies are being pushed to the Ukrainian front lines and instead new stockpiles are being created.
My personal expectation is that Putin will attempt one more push in Ukraine once mud season is over, take what he can get and then agree to another peace deal (Minsk 3 anyone?). He will then take some time to restructure and reinforce the military before again “coming to the aid of suppressed Russian minorities”, this time in places like Georgia, Moldova or Armenia. Ukraine is off the table because they will use the time to reinforce as well.
Could be, who knows. Though the countries listed are not part of NATO and are weak. And at least in Moldova it’s not easy as Russia doesn’t border it and for Armenia they have to go through Georgia first.
Though the countries listed are not part of NATO and are weak.
Perfect to get the collective confidence back on its feed after getting a literal bloody nose in Ukraine.
for Armenia they have to go through Georgia first
Two for the price of one. That’s a bargain!
Unfortunately, if they could foresee the consequences of their own actions, the war in Ukraine wouldn’t even have started
TBH it’s still early for evaluating consequences - it might still prove beneficial for Russia, especially with orange in chief.
Anything less than total victory will lead to economic collapse for Russia and at this point it’s pretty much impossible even with Trump in office. They are cooked in any case.
They wasted hundreds of thousands in the meat grinder… The final outcome would have to be absolutely massive in favour of Russia for it to still be beneficial. Unlikely.
Depends on the perspective. To Putin it’s not a problem, for him people are expandable and cheap. You just write some laws and they grow again in his view. As the land grab is forever. Your and mine views are non-dictatorish and as such don’t apply to Russian imperialism.
Hey, it’s just a quick special military operation to Kyiv, in and out in three days! Surely nothing can go wrong.
IIRC there was talk after it went south that the yes-men around Putin had made him believe that not only would Ukraine not fight back, but the people would join the Russian troops in celebration for being “liberated” and help them, and that’s why they didn’t even think that failure was a possibility.
With the help of the US
I’d laugh at you if this was 2024. Today? I’m uncomfortable with such statements.
The new Axis powers of Russia, China, North Korea and U.S.A against the European powers. 10 years ago that would seem ridiculous, now, not too far fetched.
USA’s secretary of defense is already saying that Ukraine should let go of the occupied territories, will not be allowed in NATO and will not get any security guarantees. Basically saying to let Russia win and opening the door for more invasions by Russia.
Well most of the rare earth materials Trump wants are in Russian occupied territory, or on the border of it.
yeah, that’s the only positive aspect, there may actually be a reason for conservatives to push for defending ukraine and regaining their land.
The new Axis powers of Russia, China, North Korea and U.S.A against the European powers.
Considering sherlock holme’s famous statement “when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth”
So then, yes; though one can hope.
Yeah, but won’t Trump be busy with the Great War on Greenland, Panama and Canada?
I wouldn’t put it past Trump to make a deal with Putin so that he gets Greenland and can mine the fuck out of it’s untapped mineral resources.
I’m not sure how Greenland is Putin’s to give. Denmark has a military and Greenlanders wouldn’t just sit back and let themselves be annexed.
Oh sorry, I meant more like allying with Putin’s side if war breaks out for the potential of getting Greenland.
If they capture Ukraine, they will have a fresh pool of conscripts, not to mention Ukraine’s impressive military technology.
Good point. Ukrainians doesn’t have that much of weapons and are heavily reliant on west. Except for drones, but at least some major parts are bought from other countries. But yes, it would increase Russian military to some extent, though I doubt Ukrainians would be good Russian soldiers.
Ukrainian conscripts will have a line of known-loyal barrier troops behind them with orders to shoot them if they fail to obey. Old Russian Army tactic.
Yes, sure, but that still doesn’t make them good soldiers.
russians aren’t known for utilizing good soldiers anyway. they are known for utilizing meat shields, though
And a never ending insurgency?
those people aren’t going to join the russian army willingly.
The country will resemble european afghanistan. it will be one of the bloodiest insurgencies in history.
the only reason a Ukrainian would willingly join the russian army is because he’s either a mentally handicapped traitor. or he’s furious at how the West betrayed and used his country like a pawn.
The agency offers three scenarios that could occur if the Ukraine conflict stops or becomes frozen, working from the assumption that Russia does not have the capacity to wage war with multiple countries at the same time.
So is Ukraine in Asia or something?
Major war already started 3 years ago. Europe sat on its hands, and America is looking for the door.
Man Europe needs to build up their military quick. Too long you’ve relied on the US but now the US is unreliable depending on who is in office
they’ve sat on their hands this entire time
they had a wait and see attitude until the US election came trump won, they wait and saw they sat on their hands some more.
Russia’s conventional military is cooked, but all they need to do is launch a few hundred missiles at Europe, and Europe will tear itself apart with countries refusing to honor Article 5, and bam. Fait accompli, NATO dissolves.
There was a serious military buildup in some more sane countries. Poland has spent the past few years buying up all the tanks everyone had.
correction, they made ORDERS for equipment. The vast majority of which has not been delivered
largely from the same foreign arms mannufacturers, who if they decided to reneg on the deal (USA), or found themselves in a war of their own and had their factories diverted to domestic use (South Korea), they wouldnt have a card to play
Boy, it sure would be bad if the US population had voted a Russian stooge into the presidency for the next four years. Oh wait…
I’m tired of living in weeks, boss
Surely putin will be dead by then?
One can hope
Either France or the UK can easily fill in. Both have nuclear submarines. Mutually assured destruction baby.
France and the UK’s nuclear arsenal is minuscule compared to the US stockpile.
And a lot of the nukes at NATO bases are on loan from the US, so if the US pulls out there will not be nearly as many bombs close to Russia.
Anyone insane enough to start a nuclear war may decide that absorbing a hundred or so nukes isn’t so bad when they have hundreds of Cold War era bunkers and thousands of their own nukes.
France and the UK’s nuclear arsenal is minuscule compared to the US stockpile.
You only need a few.
And a lot of the nukes at NATO bases are on loan from the US, so if the US pulls out there will not be nearly as many bombs close to Russia.
Both UK and France have nuclear armed subs, those are all that matter.
Anyone insane enough to start a nuclear war may decide that absorbing a hundred or so nukes isn’t so bad when they have hundreds of Cold War era bunkers and thousands of their own nukes.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say even Putin doesn’t want to spend the rest of his life in a bunker.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say even Putin doesn’t want to spend the rest of his life in a bunker.
You say that, but that’s literally the plan for all the tech bros and billionaires when climate change finally starts to slap. They have all the money and power to stop it from happening, but they’d rather just live out their last thirty years in a fucking hole.
more than enough to cook russia. unfortunatley, europe will be wiped off the map too
The French strategy with nuclear bombs is not to wipe a country out of a map, but wiping out Moscow and Saint Petersburg (or New York and Washington DC for a USan example). The message is that you can kill us, but we will make sure that you are definitely crippled
This is about how quickly the Russian war machine and economy can rebuild their capability to attack again. IIRC the report by the Danish Intelligence Service assumes that the Ukraine war stops now and that Europe does not increase its defensive capabilities.
Will. You meant “will”.
Obviously the headline should have said “special military operation.”
If Moscow perceives NATO as weak, Russia could be ready to wage a “large-scale war” in Europe within five years, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) has said.
They didn’t say Russia will, they said Russia could. I feel like this is fearmongering to a certain extent. How is the war in Ukraine going for Russia? They’re winning, sure, but they’re fighting hard for every kilometer and it’s costing them. I really don’t think any other country is worth as much as Ukraine is from Russia’s point of view.
I mostly agree with your points, but even the article title very clearly says ‘could’.
Russia had been encroaching on Ukrainian borders for years before launching their full invasion, and I’m not aware of similar actions against other European nations. It may be fearmongering, but unifying and strengthening NATO is in an important step to take to prevent Putin from going even further. He is heading towards his latter years now, and he seems to like the idea of restoring the ‘glory’ of the USSR and showing the West how big and stronk Russia is.
Additionally, in a larger-scale war with other, better armed European nations, Russia might not hold back on using their nukes this time round.
People die but remain missing = no costs They finance most of the equipment etc. themselves. Laws are already being changed in the direction of forced child labor and I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin brings forced rape into play if necessary. So losses are manageable even with the junk equipment.
Ukraine is acting democratically… even the current convocation will do if age limits have to be constantly adjusted. Equipment either from abroad or financed from abroad. Losses are not bearable
Europe, America and all democracies in the world are sinking into unstable chaos due to Russia’s propaganda machine. No more united action, etc. The majority of the population backing Russia is becoming an ever greater risk and the likelihood of civil war is increasing.
Etc.
So people who don’t take this seriously, make fun of Russia, etc. have absolutely not grasped the seriousness of the situation. There are several ways of waging war… even without actively intervening in the events themselves.
Nazi Russia pact 2: America throws Europe to the wolves after creating its own role it now uses as an excuse to blackmail world peace and climate for lithium and hate because Mars Hateopia is no longer feasible in time for Elon-aloo.
I think Russia is well aware that if they go to war with the EU, China will backdoor them hard.
Do you mean China will attack Russia or will assist Russia?
I mean Russia, yes.
What? I’m confused what you mean when you say back door.
When Russia looks towards the west, China looks towards the North.
They would love to get some of that land.
Got you yeah that makes sense
