Summary
California has an aggressive mandate for zero-emission trucks, which are powered by electricity or hydrogen. But trucking companies face big obstacles — and people are still breathing dangerous diesel exhaust.
California has an aggressive mandate for zero-emission trucks, which are powered by electricity or hydrogen. But trucking companies face big obstacles — and people are still breathing dangerous diesel exhaust.
Yeah, I get that. That’s kind of what I was referring to with “10-20 years” and “not happening in a vacuum”. The infrastructure is being deployed, and at this point, really, all they need to be doing is making plans for 5-10 years down the line (giving them 5-10 years after that, respectively, to implement those).
This is assuming, of course, that 5-10 years is enough time for most trucking companies to deal with each phase. I’m assuming it is, but I could be a bit uninformed / naive with that assumption.
The trucking industry has a very long tail when it comes to equipment. Big trucking companies (100 plus trucks) generally replace their equipment every 3 to 5 years. Smaller companies (10 to 100 trucks) often buy a mix of new and used equipment with an average age somewhere in the 5 to 10 year old range. Then you have the majority of the trucking industry who buy whatever makes financial sense to them at that moment in time and then run it till they can no longer get parts or they hang up the keys. The latter being more common.
As I was writing this a cab over Kenworth drove by the dock I’m currently parked at. They haven’t been made since the late 80’s, I think. Once the tech is available, then a 10 to 20 year time frame makes sense and will see some 90% to 98% of the old trucks replaced.
Thanks for the insight.
I have no experience with larger companies, but a neighbor growing up and a friend’s dad (separate people) both had 1-2 vehicle trucking companies. They were the “drive them till they fall apart” style like you mentioned.
You might like this YouTube channel:
https://youtube.com/@edisonmotors?si=_O5hmnkl56oarlx6
Canadian trucker with a mindset like your friends dad, but also is building trucks that is in my opinion the way forward for the trucking industry. Got to bounce, load to move.
If you make plans for the trucking “companies” that are just 1 guy with a truck, and how he can afford to replace it.
If it’s just one guy with a truck, I would imagine 10-20 years is enough time to save up for a trade-in, right?
I’m not sure I’m not a truck driver. But 5 years doesn’t sound long enough unless they’re was some kind of diesel buyback program.