Due to high gerrymandering and messed up voting system it’s expected that a result like this would still give Orbán a small majority in the parliament.
But Orbán won all elections since 2006 (in 2006 he lost parliamentary elections in March but won local elections in September, than won everything in 2010, than he changed the voting rules). Current system overwhelmingly punishes coalitions and small parties, and favors big parties.
Medián, the pollster behind this poll is usually one of the most accurate. Wiki page about recent polls, and the rise of Tisza Party: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election
Curious to see how this goes. Wish all the best to the democratic, liberal-minded folks in Hungary.
The impression I get is Orban’s rule has become ironclad over the last few decades (which makes sense as you get time to institutionalize “permanent” rule and condition society to such a state of affairs). I do hope I am wrong and my knowledge of Hungarian politics is subpar beyond foreign policy elements.
Magyar is also not liberal, more like center right, like Fidesz was before 2010. But at least he is democratic. Yet. Classic liberal parties never reached more than 10-15% ever.
Parliament was basically dissolved in 2016, Orbán rules by decree since that, we always had some kind of state of emergency which gave him special powers, parliament is just a theater.
Agreed. My comment was a general statement of solidarity. :)