I wonder if this helps explains why polling has been getting worse than usual since 2016. (In relation to presidential polling (midterm polling has been historically accurate).

Chart Source, Axios

  • FundMECFSResearchOP
    3·
    2 months ago

    Yes but these are definitely hypotheses. Fivethirtyeight has extensively covered it. In 2016 they covered it a lot, did a post-mortem on the election, and said the industry said they’ll fix it for next time, then in 2020 we got even worse polling errors.

    I miss Nate from the fivethirtyeight days. It’s sad to see his model paywalled.

    Random but if you’re a polling nerd this site is a godsend: https://swingstates.vercel.app/

    its based on the 538 API, they also have a mastodon and bsky bot

    This cycle a lot of polling has oversamples GOP. And they are using a new technique wherein they weight polls based on previous vote. Which is interesting I guess. Anyways, we’ll see what happens in a week.