- cross-posted to:
- nottheonion@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- nottheonion@lemmy.world
“He’s doing a good job,” Trump saidabout the Israeli leader. “Biden is trying to hold him back, just so you understand, Biden is more superior to the VP. He’s trying to hold him back, and he probably should be doing the opposite, actually. I’m glad that Netanyahu decided to do what he had to do, but it’s moving along pretty good.”
From a purely strategic perspective, is this wise of Trump?
My impression is that even many American Jewish people don’t like Netanyahu. And he doesn’t need to remind anti-Harris protest voters that he’s even more anti Palestine. Many MAGA diehards don’t even like Netanyahu.
Like… who is he appealing to? Older Republicans, I guess, who remember Israel’s early days?
He’s appealing to people that hate Muslims.
And people who think the rapture starts with a holy war in Jerusalem.
Literally Armageddon.
The “left behind” Christians, who want nothing more than Armageddon.
Occam’s razor…
He’s appealing to himself
Fascist thinks fellow fascist should be free to do genocide faster and harder!
If he can keep steady poll numbers after an insurrection, my guess is that this won’t impact him at all.
Polling doesn’t capture turnout changes. This is the kind of thing that’s largest effect, if materialized, would be boosting dem turnout
Depends on the poll. State by state polls absolutely sample likely voters (aka, people who plan to turn out). Moreover, they use past polling and election data to inflate or deflate turnout likelihood if a consistent gaps exists between what a cohort historically says and what a cohort historically does.
They don’t easily capture changes to turnout between election cycles is my point. They rely on assumptions of what turnout will look like to weight their polling
The best proxy is voter enthusiasm, but its not perfect
Yeah, but most elections these days generally fall within the margins of polls. The historical trend data is generally doing a decent job of predicting future behavior.
IMHO, the bigger issue is that some races are so tight that they can’t be reliably predicted. The winner is buried within the margin of error.
Oh, I don’t think there’s any political calculation to 99% of what Trump says anymore. This is more about how much he likes “strongmen”. Hell, lots of folks in Israel don’t even like Netanyahu anymore.
Apparently he’s reasonably popular?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c243zempn6zo
His polls have recently somewhat improved, but are still down from where they were historically. Earlier this year they were absolutely abysmal so the bar was on the floor for them to be seen as “on the rise”
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israeli-public-opinion-shifts-on-netanyahu-as-prime-minister-regains-support/3353576#
It’s one of the reasons he has been stalling on ceasefire talks - the war is the only thing keeping him in power.
I may be wrong about this, but I think I remember reading something last year about him being in legal trouble but there’s a law that stops him from being prosecuted if the country is involved in “military operations?”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu
Certainly guessing they’re trying to delay as much as possible.
Hmmm… I’m no calendarologist but it seems to me that October is after July…
Thanks for the link! They didn’t mention anything about the law I thought existed so I guess that’s not a thing.
Yeah, this trial has been going on forever. Looks like he has to testify in early December (his lawyers had wanted to push off until March next year)
This is an archive of the best article I could find - basically his lawyers had used the war as an excuse for the delay, but that didn’t fly.
https://archive.ph/v1V0j
His followers will believe whatever Trump says, and whatever Trump says is what they’ve always believed, even if they didn’t.
He’s apppealing to the evil people. The ones that want to watch the world burn, or are too stupid to understand the consequences of radical global actions.