I hope this incentives people who want Harris to win to not get too comfortable.
Vote for Harris as soon as possible, your vote can make a difference in the results.
Also keep in mind, due to census ratfucking, solid Red States gained two electoral college votes while solid Blue States lost three.
North Carolina, a swing state, also gained 3.
So it’s going to be that much harder to win. The only poll that matters is on election day.
Gerrymandering and discouraging certain demographics is basically an accepted practice in North Carolina. The only way to get the votes to swing blue is to overrun the systems in place so even margins of error don’t matter. We did it in 2008, we can do it again.
Polls are meaningless. Vote.
I keep seeing this message across all of these posts and I just want to echo how true and important it is.
The poll has a +/-4.5 margin of error.
A change in polling inside the margin of error is not really all that statistically significant, it will natrually vary inside that (very large) range all the time when polling such a small population. It’s incredibly important to keep the pressure on to make sure this is a blow-out election win of course, but this is a bit of a nothing burger headline.
I agree folks supporting Harris shouldn’t get complacent but this doesn’t feel like the right kind of motivation. Nate Silver’s models don’t show this as even close.
I’ve stopped paying attention to any polls and most every pollster right around 2016.
It doesn’t matter what the little line says. Vote and don’t stop beating the drum. Otherwise Trump and the GOP WILL take the election.
You have to take into account the electoral college advantage that Republicans have. It’s not enough to just win the popular vote. So, don’t forget to vote at all levels when you can. :)
Oh, I know - but I was specifically referencing the race in Minnesota, as was the original post.
Wow. It’s lucky Harris beats him by 5 points in the last poll from Minnesota.
Minnesota has a large Muslim population, and they have historically leaned towards the Democratic Party.
In a nail-biter election, polarizing this population against the campaign could be a big mistake.
Minnesota has a large Muslim population,
2% of the population, but of course not all are voters.
they have historically leaned towards the Democratic Party.
Omar and Ellison are both Democrats
In a nail-biter election
Democratic candidates have won 24 consecutive statewide elections in Minnesotaa dating back to 2006.
It’s nowhere close to a nail-biter.
2% of the population, but of course not all are voters.
Omar and Ellison are both Democrats
Democratic candidates have won 24 consecutive statewide elections in Minnesotaa dating back to 2006.
Ellison won the 2022 AG’s race by less than 1% of the vote.
It’s nowhere close to a nail-biter.
I’d consider an inside-the-margin-of-error election a nail-biter.
The MOE.on a poll is 3.5%. Harris is already outside the MOE. Do a little research before you produce imagined scenarios. Saves t Iime.
Harris is already outside the MOE.
She’s been at the top of the ballot for less than a month and she’s already shed 2 points from her peak.
Do a little research before you produce imagined scenarios.
flipping my research book to 2016
Remember that time an overconfident coastal liberal wrote the midwest off as safe and proceeded to lose all her blue wall states in between October and November?
It’s nowhere close to a nail-biter.
do you have any idea how close those elections have been though? 2020 Trump lost by about 7% of the vote. And that was a year with huge turnout for the DFL and a very bad year for trump. 2016, trump lost to hilary by about 1.5 %.
MN is not quite a swing state, but it’s quite close to being one. Particularly when elections are coming down to less than a percentage point.
In 2020, that Trump lost by 200,000 votes. That’s what that 7% represents. That’s not close.
Two hundred thousand. Out of three million, two hundred votes.
You’re talking about a rounding error. In an election where Trump’s economy was in the shitter, with millions of deaths from a horribly mismanaged COVID, and all the other shit I’ve repressed because they’re just sooo much shit; and all of that motivating massive amounts of turnout for democrats and depressing turnout for republicans.
Sorry, and again, Hillary in ‘16 barely squeaked out 1.5%; and is perhaps a better comparison. Minnesota is not, and has not ever been solid blue. It may not be a swing state, but it’s close to one.
All US presidential race polls are fake, even the ones that agree with your preferred outcome. Never let them determine your actions.
Although the polls have a 3-6 point spread favoring Kam nationwide depending on who you ask, it doesn’t seem insurmountable for the party of dirty tricks and ratfucking. Plan for a surprise Trump win unless Harris Walz starts pulling out all the stops and endorsing further left policies and putting on a harder charm offensive.
Minnesota will be interesting this year. There are two things that complicate this particular ticket:
- Walz is generally well-liked by those on the progressive side because of his popular working-class policies, but disliked by conservatives and downright hated by a large contingent of Muslim and leftist voters for both his handling of the George Floyd protests and of his apparent ambivalence on the war in Gaza. He’s repeatedly postponed and then outright cancelled scheduled meetings with pro-palestinian protest groups and has largely dodged the question. It might not have been a relevant issue for him as governor but now that he’s on the national stage it’s a bit of a liability.
- Harris is generally tolerated here. Sure enough, bread and butter democrats and moderate republicans find her soothing, but her tough-on-crime stances and prosecution record are a pretty big red flag for leftists and George Floyd protestors (I’d say law-and-order policies are polarizing for MN specifically because of 2020). That, and obviously her conciliatory stance toward Israel means that all the same people who dislike Walz for his notable silence on Gaza also hate Harris. There’s also a fair number of refugees in Minneapolis that makes the war in Gaza an important issue.
I would guess that Stein and West would get those leftist voters but they just as likely might just stay home out of protest. Minnesota protestors are fairly hardened after 2020 and are unlikely to be moved by ‘incrementalism’ or harm-reduction rhetoric.
Minnesota might be the bellwether for how much of a hit Harris-Walz stand to take by their collective stance on Gaza and law-and-order posturing.
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