“there is no way a state member of Congress who has been in office for all of 20 months would go off script in support of a cause which she feels is super important."
Twenty months? You mean almost two years? No one is throwing away their career for the thirty seconds it would take to escort them off stage. This idea that she or anyone in her position would seriously plot to do this is an exceptional claim. Exceptional claims require exceptional evidence to back them up.
They released the speech to Mother Jones where people saw it. In that speech they endorsed Kamala.
Wanting something to be true is not the same as it being true.
That’s exactly it. Your argument wants there to be a secret speech for her to go off script to. But the speech they released is the speech. There is no conspiracy. There is no evidence there was any plot to use the time for anything besides reading the two minute speech they released to Mother Jones. There was no indication there was any risk whatsoever. They had a list of speakers. They were open to edits and vetting for the speech.
Below, you can find the speech Romman wants to give. Uncommitted says it was open to multiple speakers. Rep. Romman and Uncommitted organizers both confirmed that this was the speech she was planning to give if allowed for a potential 2-minute speaking slot. Uncommitted said they were open to the speech being edited and vetted. They said the DNC did not ask to see the speech.
Wanting there to be another speech won’t make it true. Wanting the Democrats be the reasonable people who don’t make obvious mistakes won’t make it true. Wanting this issue to go away won’t make it go away.
In this comment section, I’ve been arguing with a user who is arguing that Kamala is no different than Trump on this issue. I think we can both agree that isn’t true. People with these views are not uncommon. I have been arguing with people for months about Israel’s genocide in Gaza and related topics. We don’t know how close the election is going to be, but pretending no one cares about these issues is not an effective strategy. This issue is not a wedge issue for the Democrats, so don’t let anyone make it out to be one. This speech is a useful tool, if we choose to use it.
Twenty months? You mean almost two years? No one is throwing away their career for the thirty seconds it would take to escort them off stage.
Except she’s had a long career, probably making a better living, working for Deloitte. Seriously, 2 years is nothing in politics. She has many back ups and promoting this cause may be important to her. You are making a wildly large assumption in deciding that a life in Congressional politics is going to be this woman’s lifelong career. And frankly, using a giant national event to grab headlines in the name of a cause isn’t a terrible way to make a name for yourself. (Consider how much of the republican party leadership actually got their start in the tea party, which was at the time a similarly anti-establishment group.)
That’s the thing. This person is a relatively unknown, there are potential benefits (or someone could see plausible benefits) to going off script and that’s inherently risky.
Consider that State legislators occasionally straight up switch parties during legislative sessions.
This idea that she or anyone in her position would seriously plot to do this is an exceptional claim. Exceptional claims require exceptional evidence to back them up.
I am not claiming that she was plotting to do this, I am saying there was a risk that she could have.
Another way to think about it, they had metal detectors at the DNC. Now, if I were to claim that someone was planning to shoot up the DNC, that would be an extraordinary claim and would require evidence. But, like me, the DNC understands the difference between a potential risk and a known danger. The metal detectors, like stopping this speech, are there to prevent a potential risk, despite the odds being fairly slim.
Your argument wants there to be a secret speech for her to go off script to.
No, you are misunderstanding. My argument is that there is a **risk **of such and that’s an unforced error. It’s the same risk averse strategic approach that Harris has adopted to great success thus far.
They said the DNC did not ask to see the speech.
Yeah, because the thing someone promises to say is not what they were concerned about. Pretty simple.
I really don’t know how to break this down any more clearly for you. But I will say it’s very strange to be like “it’s important to nominate Harris, so we’re going to tell people in this one leaked speech rather than say, using any of our social media or web presence which, y’know, are how we generally try to disseminate information directly to people.”
This version of the person your argument is about is invented for your argument. This version of her is not real. It is based on bias, not evidence. People do not normally engage in the behavior that you are describing. She is not any more risky than any other speaker who got a speaking slot at the DNC.
She has every reason to take advantage off the slot by giving the intended speech and nothing to be gained by deviating. The Uncommitted Movement explains in the speech their cause is a part of the Democratic Party and is best served by being part of the Democratic Party. Going against the Democratic Party and trying to sink Kamala Harris’ campaign would be detrimental to the Palestinian people. Where as sticking with the Democrats is beneficial for the Palestinian people.
That’s why we are here—members of this Democratic Party committed to equal rights and dignity for all. What we do here echoes around the world.
They know what Trump thinks about Palestinians. Again this is the endorsement line.
Let’s commit to each other, to electing Vice President Harris and defeating Donald Trump who uses my identity as a Palestinian as a slur.
The metal detectors, like stopping this speech, are there to prevent a potential risk, despite the odds being fairly slim.
Your argument again relies on bias instead of evidence. Here you equate the risk of a Palestinian woman speaking to concealed weapons. Your argument’s application of risk is targeted to her and her movement selectively as if they have some kind of known inherent risk when they do not. This is commonly referred to as racial profiling. Where instead of using actual evidence to exclude a person, your argument relies on culturally inherited biases to invent risk where there is none. Your argument is attempting to use racism, unsuccessfully, to make an obvious mistake seem like a reasonable decision, when it’s not. We can only hope this was not the reason the DNC gave the Uncommitted Movement a no.
Also, the speech wasn’t leaked. It was given freely by the Uncommitted Movement so people could see it. Mother Jones interviewed the speaker. A news site like Mother Jones is a legitimate way to communicate with the public in the year 2024.
Your argument’s application of risk is targeted to her and her movement selectively as if they have some kind of known inherent risk when they do not.
lol, did you forget the part where she is part of a group that tried to hold the Democratic nomination hostage?
This version of the person your argument is about is invented for your argument.
YES! AND THAT’S THE POINT! I don’t know this person, you don’t know this person. We have both invented possible versions. Except you seem unable to realize that there is a chance, however small, that your version is incorrect and that there are risks associated.
Look, I do forget my own privilege. A probabilistic worldview is difficult and not everyone has the cognitive capacity to do so. Making things binary (yes/no) is easy but not a very good way of looking at the world. Here’s an article that kind of outlines probabilistic thinking in fairly simple terms, it might help:
lol, did you forget the part where she is part of a group that tried to hold the Democratic nomination hostage?
People were protesting the DNC. No one was being held hostage. In the US, people have the First Amendment right to assemble.
We have both invented possible versions.
My argument is based on the evidence about her status as an elected representative. It is not based on bias involving her inherent characteristics of being a Palestinian woman. The risk of her speaking was no greater than any of the people who got to speak at the DNC. There was no risk associated with anyone who spoke at the DNC.
Come on. A movement doesn’t announce serious policy change via a single interview to a news site.
They did though. There is no reason not to. The point of the news is to inform the public.
A probabilistic worldview is difficult and not everyone has the cognitive capacity to do so.
can you explain what you think probabilistic thinking is?
This is a self-help article designed to help with anxiety related to life being uncertain. It’s not a worldview or even a way to justify bias of any kind. If this helps some people that’s great, but it’s not implying anyone actually calculates the probabilities in their head. Humans aren’t calculators. It’s a collection of linguistic tricks to help manage uncertainty that anyone can do.
Update your probabilities.
Be open to new information and consider emerging facts that might inform an updated view of your probabilities. This involves challenging and interrupting your biases.
If your argument is that this is a justification for racial profiling then the source cited undermines that position.
The point of sharing this speech on lemmy was to give people a tool for arguing in favor in of both the Palestinian people and Democratic Party’s ticket. The goal was to discuss useful strategies. As long as your argument is about excluding people based on inherent characteristics, racial profiling, we have nothing further to discuss. Racial profiling is not a useful way to view reality because it is not based on reality.
The horrible truth? In our culture, ‘uncertainty’ is a dirty word.
In most situations, it’s common, perhaps even expected, that you approach and explain the world with Binary Thinking — where options, choices and everything is either black or white; yes or no; on or off.
Binary Thinking will suffice for some things, sometimes. But for the most part, in the reality of our uncertain, complex world, this simply won’t cut it.
A more useful approach is Probabilistic Thinking, which helps to inform decision making by considering the odds, or likelihood, of various outcomes.
FROM POKER TO BUSINESS.
As poker champion and author Annie Duke explained: “Poker players and entrepreneurs both embrace the probabilistic nature of decisions. When you make a decision, you’ve defined the set of possible outcomes, but you can’t guarantee that you’ll get a particular outcome.”
FORECASTING.
This model is particularly important given findings from behavioural economics that we tend to be overly optimistic and overconfident in predictions. For example, one way to improve forecasts involves researching past cases and assigning probabilistic outcomes to those cases.
BEFRIENDING UNCERTAINTY.
Part of Probabilistic Thinking involves befriending uncertainty, which is incredibly hard. And, as a result, finding the confidence to act by understanding probable outcomes, based on your current knowledge, while accepting the fact that you might always be wrong.
Your immediate inclination might be to focus Probabilistic Thinking on how you understand the world, that’s wonderful, but also consider how you might apply it to your own development — see the Actionable Takeaways below for more.
IN YOUR LATTICEWORK.
Consider how to apply this Probabilistic Thinking to understanding Correlation vs Causation, Split Testing, Cynefin Framework, the Risk Matrix and even Second-Order Thinking all of which, in a variety of ways, help to understand and/or predict events in complex situations.
Actionable Takeaways
Acknowledge and befriend uncertainty.
Be okay with saying ‘I’m not sure’. Accept that you are never going to know all the facts in any given situation and that there will be no guarantees of a specific outcome.
Ask yourself, ‘what else might happen?’
Investing time and effort to consider more possible options will help to inform the actual chances of the desired or expected outcome.
Decouple notions of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ decisions from outcomes.
Uncertainty and complexity means there is always a degree of luck involved in any situation, so it’s possible to make a ‘bad’ decision that leads to a positive outcome. Instead of focusing on results, reflect on past decisions from a probabilistic point of view.
Express levels of confidence and avoid claiming 100% certainty.
Get in the habit of assigning levels of certainty to predicted outcomes, rather than claiming that something simply ‘will happen’, estimate the percentage chance it will happen based on your available facts.
Update your probabilities.
Be open to new information and consider emerging facts that might inform an updated view of your probabilities. This involves challenging and interrupting your biases.
Apply Probabilistic Thinking to understanding yourself to be adaptable and grow.
Rather than just pointing this mental model outwards, to help you understand the world, consider how it can help you to understand, manage and develop yourself. When expressing an emotion or thought, practice using the term ‘part of me…’. For example, rather than saying ‘I’m anxious about that’, try saying ‘part of me is anxious about that’. Not only is it more accurate, but it also gives room for you to acknowledge that other parts of you might be excited or happy at the same time. After all, you’re as complicated as the rest of the world :).
Kid, the entire point of the article is that things are not will/won’t happen. It’s that there are a range of probabilities.
This nonsense of claiming the person representing a movement explicitly about withholding support for the Democrat nominee has the exact same risk of deviation from the other speakers is, at best, foolish.
Then ignoring that movement and saying I’m only seeing a risk because of her race is either impressively dumb or disingenuous. I’m not sure which is worse.
The rational or adult way to look at the issue is to think about the probability of an event vs the rewards of the action. That’s a conversation worth having. Your position would be worth respect if you could have the sanity to admit “sure, there’s a chance that she’d go off script but here’s what I think are the odds, rewards and costs.” That’s a reasonable discussion. What you are doing is just saying over and over again that there is zero risk and any notion of such risk is racist.
That’s just petulant child shit.
As you grow up, hopefully you’ll learn that things that you assume will happen, may not happen and vice versa. Part of being an adult is learning to think about that sort of uncertainty, it’s tricky but a worthwhile excercise.
My argument’s central point is supported by evidence. Your argument’s central point is to invent risk with racial bias. Your argument is fundamentally flawed because it is not based in reality. Racial profiling will only lead to unjustly excluding people.
The reason I know it would be safe for her to speak is that I’m not a racist. When I grow up, I hope to help build systems that include everyone and exclude intolerance.
Twenty months? You mean almost two years? No one is throwing away their career for the thirty seconds it would take to escort them off stage. This idea that she or anyone in her position would seriously plot to do this is an exceptional claim. Exceptional claims require exceptional evidence to back them up.
They released the speech to Mother Jones where people saw it. In that speech they endorsed Kamala.
That’s exactly it. Your argument wants there to be a secret speech for her to go off script to. But the speech they released is the speech. There is no conspiracy. There is no evidence there was any plot to use the time for anything besides reading the two minute speech they released to Mother Jones. There was no indication there was any risk whatsoever. They had a list of speakers. They were open to edits and vetting for the speech.
Wanting there to be another speech won’t make it true. Wanting the Democrats be the reasonable people who don’t make obvious mistakes won’t make it true. Wanting this issue to go away won’t make it go away.
In this comment section, I’ve been arguing with a user who is arguing that Kamala is no different than Trump on this issue. I think we can both agree that isn’t true. People with these views are not uncommon. I have been arguing with people for months about Israel’s genocide in Gaza and related topics. We don’t know how close the election is going to be, but pretending no one cares about these issues is not an effective strategy. This issue is not a wedge issue for the Democrats, so don’t let anyone make it out to be one. This speech is a useful tool, if we choose to use it.
Except she’s had a long career, probably making a better living, working for Deloitte. Seriously, 2 years is nothing in politics. She has many back ups and promoting this cause may be important to her. You are making a wildly large assumption in deciding that a life in Congressional politics is going to be this woman’s lifelong career. And frankly, using a giant national event to grab headlines in the name of a cause isn’t a terrible way to make a name for yourself. (Consider how much of the republican party leadership actually got their start in the tea party, which was at the time a similarly anti-establishment group.)
That’s the thing. This person is a relatively unknown, there are potential benefits (or someone could see plausible benefits) to going off script and that’s inherently risky.
Consider that State legislators occasionally straight up switch parties during legislative sessions.
I am not claiming that she was plotting to do this, I am saying there was a risk that she could have.
Another way to think about it, they had metal detectors at the DNC. Now, if I were to claim that someone was planning to shoot up the DNC, that would be an extraordinary claim and would require evidence. But, like me, the DNC understands the difference between a potential risk and a known danger. The metal detectors, like stopping this speech, are there to prevent a potential risk, despite the odds being fairly slim.
No, you are misunderstanding. My argument is that there is a **risk **of such and that’s an unforced error. It’s the same risk averse strategic approach that Harris has adopted to great success thus far.
Yeah, because the thing someone promises to say is not what they were concerned about. Pretty simple.
I really don’t know how to break this down any more clearly for you. But I will say it’s very strange to be like “it’s important to nominate Harris, so we’re going to tell people in this one leaked speech rather than say, using any of our social media or web presence which, y’know, are how we generally try to disseminate information directly to people.”
This version of the person your argument is about is invented for your argument. This version of her is not real. It is based on bias, not evidence. People do not normally engage in the behavior that you are describing. She is not any more risky than any other speaker who got a speaking slot at the DNC.
She has every reason to take advantage off the slot by giving the intended speech and nothing to be gained by deviating. The Uncommitted Movement explains in the speech their cause is a part of the Democratic Party and is best served by being part of the Democratic Party. Going against the Democratic Party and trying to sink Kamala Harris’ campaign would be detrimental to the Palestinian people. Where as sticking with the Democrats is beneficial for the Palestinian people.
They know what Trump thinks about Palestinians. Again this is the endorsement line.
Your argument again relies on bias instead of evidence. Here you equate the risk of a Palestinian woman speaking to concealed weapons. Your argument’s application of risk is targeted to her and her movement selectively as if they have some kind of known inherent risk when they do not. This is commonly referred to as racial profiling. Where instead of using actual evidence to exclude a person, your argument relies on culturally inherited biases to invent risk where there is none. Your argument is attempting to use racism, unsuccessfully, to make an obvious mistake seem like a reasonable decision, when it’s not. We can only hope this was not the reason the DNC gave the Uncommitted Movement a no.
Also, the speech wasn’t leaked. It was given freely by the Uncommitted Movement so people could see it. Mother Jones interviewed the speaker. A news site like Mother Jones is a legitimate way to communicate with the public in the year 2024.
lol, did you forget the part where she is part of a group that tried to hold the Democratic nomination hostage?
YES! AND THAT’S THE POINT! I don’t know this person, you don’t know this person. We have both invented possible versions. Except you seem unable to realize that there is a chance, however small, that your version is incorrect and that there are risks associated.
Look, I do forget my own privilege. A probabilistic worldview is difficult and not everyone has the cognitive capacity to do so. Making things binary (yes/no) is easy but not a very good way of looking at the world. Here’s an article that kind of outlines probabilistic thinking in fairly simple terms, it might help:
https://modelthinkers.com/mental-model/probabilistic-thinking
Come on. A movement doesn’t announce serious policy change via a single interview to a news site.
Just to demonstrate this conversation is worth having, after you’ve read the article, can you explain what you think probabilistic thinking is?
People were protesting the DNC. No one was being held hostage. In the US, people have the First Amendment right to assemble.
My argument is based on the evidence about her status as an elected representative. It is not based on bias involving her inherent characteristics of being a Palestinian woman. The risk of her speaking was no greater than any of the people who got to speak at the DNC. There was no risk associated with anyone who spoke at the DNC.
They did though. There is no reason not to. The point of the news is to inform the public.
This is a self-help article designed to help with anxiety related to life being uncertain. It’s not a worldview or even a way to justify bias of any kind. If this helps some people that’s great, but it’s not implying anyone actually calculates the probabilities in their head. Humans aren’t calculators. It’s a collection of linguistic tricks to help manage uncertainty that anyone can do.
If your argument is that this is a justification for racial profiling then the source cited undermines that position.
The point of sharing this speech on lemmy was to give people a tool for arguing in favor in of both the Palestinian people and Democratic Party’s ticket. The goal was to discuss useful strategies. As long as your argument is about excluding people based on inherent characteristics, racial profiling, we have nothing further to discuss. Racial profiling is not a useful way to view reality because it is not based on reality.
Clearly you need to re-read the article.
This is a self-help article on a self-help website. It’s not a justification for racial profiling.
https://modelthinkers.com/playbook/welcome-to-modelthinkers
https://modelthinkers.com/mental-model/probabilistic-thinking
Kid, the entire point of the article is that things are not will/won’t happen. It’s that there are a range of probabilities.
This nonsense of claiming the person representing a movement explicitly about withholding support for the Democrat nominee has the exact same risk of deviation from the other speakers is, at best, foolish.
Then ignoring that movement and saying I’m only seeing a risk because of her race is either impressively dumb or disingenuous. I’m not sure which is worse.
The rational or adult way to look at the issue is to think about the probability of an event vs the rewards of the action. That’s a conversation worth having. Your position would be worth respect if you could have the sanity to admit “sure, there’s a chance that she’d go off script but here’s what I think are the odds, rewards and costs.” That’s a reasonable discussion. What you are doing is just saying over and over again that there is zero risk and any notion of such risk is racist.
That’s just petulant child shit.
As you grow up, hopefully you’ll learn that things that you assume will happen, may not happen and vice versa. Part of being an adult is learning to think about that sort of uncertainty, it’s tricky but a worthwhile excercise.
My argument’s central point is supported by evidence. Your argument’s central point is to invent risk with racial bias. Your argument is fundamentally flawed because it is not based in reality. Racial profiling will only lead to unjustly excluding people.
The reason I know it would be safe for her to speak is that I’m not a racist. When I grow up, I hope to help build systems that include everyone and exclude intolerance.