• givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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    4 months ago

    I’ll say it to I’m blue in the face:

    Either party can guarantee victory by running literally anyone except Biden or trump.

    *Obviously not Hillary tho

    If Biden steps down, trump is toast if he stays.

    If trump steps down, there goes Biden’s entire campaign.

      • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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        4 months ago

        The pro-trump crazies aren’t the majority of the Republican party anymore.

        One of them literally just shot him a couple days ago in case you haven’t heard…

        • qprimed@lemmy.ml
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          4 months ago

          The pro-trump crazies aren’t the majority of the Republican party anymore.

          this is an underappreciated truth, but they quite clearly control the party. the dems need to give a reason for a solid majority of people to get off their asses and vote - apparently the threat of a literal fucking fascist takeover isnt quite enough.

          “I’m not trump!” is typical dem fantasy BS at this point. the maga crazies taste blood and are about to frenzy feed.

          • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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            4 months ago

            this is an underappreciated truth, but they quite clearly control the party

            Moderate Dems don’t represent the Dem party either. But they control it.

            Both parties are controlled by the most rightwing factions, even tho most of the voters don’t like it.

            So we end up with most people voting against someone and not for anyone.

            That’s how we end up with 2/3s if the country not being happy if either of the two main parties win.

      • audiomodder
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        4 months ago

        Who are they going to vote for? If Trump isn’t the Republican candidate, you think they would vote for a Democrat?

        • Stern@lemmy.world
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          4 months ago

          They’d vote for Trump. We both know he wouldn’t stop running. Vote splits, dems win.

    • Pelicanen@sopuli.xyz
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      4 months ago

      Why are you so certain that people would instantly vote for a new candidate more than the incumbent president? I have only seen polls saying the exact opposite.

      Regardless, time is ticking out. If a new candidate is gonna have time to build any sort of support or momentum, they need to get started yesterday and hit the ground running, the election is just getting closer.

      • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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        4 months ago

        I have only seen polls saying the exact opposite

        An incumbent with what? A 34% approval rating?

        Biden isn’t a normal incumbent he’s literally a historically unpopular incumbent…

        And for months now polls have been showing a smaller gap between almost anyone else and trump.

        Like, do you not understand this is Biden with the campaign and DNC behind him versus people who can’t even say they’re thinking about running yet?

        You don’t think that would give them even a 5% boost?

      • bostonbananarama@lemmy.world
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        4 months ago

        I’ve seen polling that says that Michelle Obama wins by like 20 points, but I’m not stupid enough to believe that polling.

        There’s so much “not Trump” feeling in this country, but running a doddering octogenarian against him decreases those people willing to vote for “not Trump”. I’m absolutely voting for the Dem candidate, but I have some very real concerns about it.

      • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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        4 months ago

        There’s four months to go, that’s a long time to campaign. We’ve gotten used to these super campaigns but countries routinely hold them inside a couple months.

        • Pelicanen@sopuli.xyz
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          4 months ago

          While the US campaign cycle is more extended than other countries’, even then the people who are going to be the main candidate for their respective parties (party leaders for example) are usually known well in advance and have managed to build up a reputation with their constituents before they even start campaigning. In this situation, you’d have to start way further back.

          I’m not saying it’s the wrong way to go, but everyone should be aware that changing candidate to someone completely new this close to the election absolutely won’t be a cakewalk.

          • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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            4 months ago

            We have plenty of party leaders. We’re not starting with unknowns. The people we’re talking about are 90 percent of the way there.

      • givesomefucks@lemmy.world
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        4 months ago

        Hillary with Joe as VP, then in 2028 they’ll say it has to be Hillary again because for some reason no one under 70 has enough experience…

        I just like reminding myself that it can always be worse.

        • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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          4 months ago

          Naw, let’s really monkey paw this, Hillary/Schumer, with 3 more sham primaries. Although I’m not sure there would be a party that long if they kept going at that.

    • Ranvier@sopuli.xyz
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      4 months ago

      I know Michelle Obama doesn’t want to run, but like, please Michelle? Would you think about it? Things are getting pretty desperate here. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/03/michelle-obama-would-beat-trump/74289680007/

      If you really don’t want to do it, you could just win handily and then resign the first day and hand it off to someone else.

      I’m also surprised at how much worse some Biden alternates do in the polling given people’s reported desire for a switch, but maybe in time they’d have a higher support ceiling than Biden as people get more familiar with them.

      • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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        4 months ago

        What a lot of news doesn’t report is the Undecided/Don’t Know category grows in lockstep with the drop in existing support for these other names. Trump’s support stays locked on at ~40-44 percent. So what’s really happening is a name brand gap. Some people just don’t know these other candidates and that’s easily solvable with four months and the DNC’s entire war chest.

        • Ranvier@sopuli.xyz
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          4 months ago

          That could certainly be the case, I was trying to get at that with the second part of the comment. I’ll link the poll below directly for people where that can be seen easier. I wish we had some more people who already could poll better though. I was also hoping that Trump’s support might drop some with some of the other choices though, with some moving to the not sure category when a different democrat was proposed. Unfortunately it was looking like the “not sure” people are mostly coming from the previously Biden category, with Trump staying locked in at 40 like he is with Biden, or even higher for some of them. Michelle Obama was the only to get that to drop, and only to 39%.

          The “wouldn’t vote category” also dropped by a percent or 2 for some of them, so a few voters at least might be pulled of the sideline with a new candidate if they can manage to keep all the Biden voters. It was pretty impressive for Michelle Obama again, lowering from 8% to 4% not voting for the poll-takers in the case of Michelle Obama. She seems to pull her extra support over Biden from the current “won’t vote” and third party voters. Some of the other potentials also peeled off a percent or two from the third party voters too into the not sure category. These are the people that really need to be convinced if we’re going to beat Trump, and some of them at least seem to at least think about it when a new democrat is proposed.

          https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/only-michelle-obama-bests-trump-alternative-biden-2024

    • unalivejoy@lemm.ee
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      4 months ago

      blue in the face

      I’m now imagining a debate where the republican candidate is red faced screaming and the democrat candidate is turning blue due to screaming and forgetting to breathe.