I don’t think 2016 is the right comparison actually. It was not a presidential election, but more something akin to midterms I guess?
The true question now is 2027, which is the next presidential election. Since 2017 (and even before I’d say) the far right has been gaining influence year after year. They have been in the second round of the last two presidential elections, and with a margin that’s getting lower and lower. And even in those elections, they had a majority in the european elections, and they have more seats in congress than they had before this election. (Previous one was in 2022).
Tldr: they are gaining weight, and the next big potential moment which will probably look a lot like 2016 in the US will be the 2027 presidential election
I don’t think 2016 is the right comparison actually. It was not a presidential election, but more something akin to midterms I guess?
The true question now is 2027, which is the next presidential election. Since 2017 (and even before I’d say) the far right has been gaining influence year after year. They have been in the second round of the last two presidential elections, and with a margin that’s getting lower and lower. And even in those elections, they had a majority in the european elections, and they have more seats in congress than they had before this election. (Previous one was in 2022).
Tldr: they are gaining weight, and the next big potential moment which will probably look a lot like 2016 in the US will be the 2027 presidential election