The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3
34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone. The full survey can be access here > Survation survey
The only poll that matters is on the day. Make sure you go out and vote, don’t assume it’s a foregone conclusion.
Exactly. Other points worth remembering. Tory voters are more likely to be retired or otherwise wealthy enough to spare time.
Whereas, labour voters are more likely to have multiple or 0-hour contract jobs. Meaning the press push, this is a forgone conclusion. It is much more likely to reduce Labour turnout than Tory.
Add younger voters tend to have lower turnout. And the shy Tory history. This may still be a weak labour win, or even a Tory minority win.
Go vote tomorrow. I’d also suggest vote tactically. If in an area where it’s practical. But that is your choice.
As it is, voting Tory. If that is your wish. Please have fun and get very drunk tonight ;)
You’re are quite right of course. Two main weaknesses of these opinions polls, regardless of the methodology are:
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the outcome is based on the moment the question was asked and;
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the complex reality of voter behaviour is simplified by assuming that the change in support for each party from one election to the next is the same across all constituencies. Which fails to take into consideration the following:
Regional variations, new candidates and Issues and finally tactical voting.
So yeah in a nutshell these polls are utterly meaningless but in the absence of a crystal ball something is better than nothing, despite the crude nature of the something.
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Numbers like that and labour will be occupying benches on both sides of the house
Sure, sure.
Do they also know who’s in fact going to go and cat the vote?
and trans people will be fucked either way.
I lived through the Blair government. Some left wing people were upset because he was on the right of the Labour Party, but things did indeed get a lot better in those ten years. Not everything by any stretch of the imagination. But no one expected him to make things better for gay people but not only did the legal situation change but the mood music affected the nation’s morals for the better for a while. It became socially far less acceptable to hate on gay folk. Could happen again, but I get why you might be cynical.
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That “99% certainty” isn’t aging well.
