Of limited interest, I’m sure, but I spent a bit of time working all this out, and wanted to post it before Scotland go 2 down after 5 minutes tomorrow and render it all moot…

So.

If Scotland lose to Hungary, we’re out. No ifs, buts, or maybes.

If we draw then we need at least 2 out of 3 scenarios to happen in order to sneak through:

  • Spain beat Albania AND Italy beat Croatia
  • Turkey beat Czechia AND Portugal beat Georgia
  • Denmark beat Georgia AND England beat Slovenia by 5 or more (I think)

If Scotland win against Hungary then any 2 (or more) of these scenarios gets us through

  • Spain avoid defeat to Albania (Scotland would finish better than Albania and also better than one of Croatia or Italy, regardless of their result)

  • Netherlands beat Austria (Scotland would be ahead of both Austria and Poland)

  • England avoid defeat to Slovenia (Scotland would be ahead of Slovenia and also at least one of Denmark or Serbia).

  • There’s also the possibility that Slovenia hammer England (Scotland could finish better than England on goal difference and also would be ahead of at least one of Denmark or Serbia)

  • Portugal avoid defeat to Georgia (Scotland would be ahead of Georgia and also ahead of one of Turkey or Czechia)

  • Even if Georgia did win, we could beat them on GD, but we’d have to thrash Hungary, so not likely.

  • No draws on match day 3 in group E. Doesn’t matter who wins, as long as two teams do.

  • Or, if there are 1 or 2 draws in group E then it comes down to goal difference, so we would have to hammer Hungary, see above.

And yes, I made a spreadsheet to work all this out… :-)

  • ThemeEnglish
    3·
    6 months ago

    You’ll lose to Hungary

    Good work tho, interesting calculations. I’m personally not a fan of the 4/6 third place teams rule

    • SanguinePar@lemmy.worldOPEnglish
      3·
      6 months ago

      You’ll lose to Hungary

      Well, maybe. But it would much more in keeping with Scotland to win but still somehow go out :-)

      I think we might do ok tonight, coming back from the Germany game to get a draw against the Swiss showed some character, even if we didn’t play very well in the first half.

      I hope we switch to 4-5-1 though, 3/5 across the back doesn’t suit either Robertson or Ralston (albeit for different reasons), and I think we need to impose ourselves in midfield more than we have been.

      Too often we have 3 CBs just sitting waiting as the opposition advance unchecked through the midfield, and then suddenly the ball is in or near our box and it just takes a mistake to lead to a chance. I’d rather we played one fewer at the back and held the middle of the park more securely.

      We really only use a 3 so that Tierney and Robertson can both play at the same time, but with Tierney out, there’s no need. Even when he’s fit though, I’d just bite the bullet and drop one of them (probably Tierney) in order to play a 4 with proper FBs

      • ThemeEnglish
        2·
        6 months ago

        Yeah I think it’s interesting tactically, how to set-up to maximise your two best players when they’re both leftbacks and you don’t have much time together. I’d play Robbo up front.

        I agree, not a massive fan of the back 3 either. Your analysis seems interesting, shame it’s not being born out