This actually is an improvement for Biden who had been losing several of these.
If Trump takes either PA or MI, it’s game over. He only needs one of them to win.
After that, Trump needs any 2 of the remaining 4 states to win and Biden needs 3/4.
If Biden takes Wisconsin and Minnesota, and Trump takes Arizona, that means it will all come down to New Mexico and we have ZERO useful polling out of New Mexico, absolutely none.
I’m excited for RFK to take a couple states and Congress votes in Trump. That’s not going to be a shit show at all. And I know that’s what’s going to happen because we’re in the timeline where things just keep getting worse. I think we split from the prime timeline sometime around Reagan.
Yup, this is why we follow it over time.
It went from pro Biden, to waffling back and forth, to pro Trump, to waffling back and forth, and now, here we are!
Let’s check the usual suspects:
Arizona: Tie, Biden+2, Trump+2-+4 Waffling.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada: Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: No useful polling.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Georgia: Trump +5/+6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
North Carolina: Trump +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania: Biden +1/+2 to Trump +2 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Michigan: Tie to Trump+1 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin: Biden +2/+7 to Trump +1 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/wisconsin/
Minnesota: Tie, Biden+2, Trump +3/+5 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/
What this looks like mapped out:
This actually is an improvement for Biden who had been losing several of these.
If Trump takes either PA or MI, it’s game over. He only needs one of them to win.
After that, Trump needs any 2 of the remaining 4 states to win and Biden needs 3/4.
If Biden takes Wisconsin and Minnesota, and Trump takes Arizona, that means it will all come down to New Mexico and we have ZERO useful polling out of New Mexico, absolutely none.
New Mexico is 90% going for Biden. It’s not a swing state.
I’m excited for RFK to take a couple states and Congress votes in Trump. That’s not going to be a shit show at all. And I know that’s what’s going to happen because we’re in the timeline where things just keep getting worse. I think we split from the prime timeline sometime around Reagan.