Bears have predicted 11 of the last 2 crashes, this isn’t news
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of the economics book, The Black Swan, had a great take on this. I’m paraphrasing but he was like how Economists can go in the news, make a prediction, and if they’re wrong, nothing. But if they’re right, they become a staple of business news and sell out all of their books. So financially, it’s better to make a lot of predictions and hope to win the “I guess right” lottery.
Jesse Livermoore said “the markets act, and the papers look for the explanation.” It was true 100 years ago and it’s true now.
That’s like me at the stop light trying to predict when it will change. “1, 2, 3… change”…“1, 2, 3…change”. “1, 2, 3 change” light changes. I feel smug in my elite ability to predict the change.
You’re very correct. The market is very much a predator and prey relationship, and the justifications afterwards are for the fans at home. I once saw the whole market tilt because one man (Bill Hwang) lost his leveraged multibillion dollar position.
There’s an old scam that runs the same way. On a 2 outcome wager like which team wins a game send 500 people prediction team A wins and 500 people team B wins. For the 500 people who got the right one send 250 team C wins and the other 250 team D wins. By the time you’re down to ~7 people they all received 7 winning predictions in a row, then you ask them for a bet on a ‘sure thing’ for the 8th game.
The crazy thing about speculative economy is that by releasing this article, businessinsider might scare some of the investors and so create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Shhh, it’s exactly how stock is meant to work for them. Hype bubbles and “adjustments”.
I’ve always thought that about recession predictions. After all, economists measure consumer confidence and define the meaning of the results as
if consumers are optimistic, they will spend more and stimulate the economy, but if they are pessimistic then their spending patterns could lead to an economic slowdown or recession.
It’s clearly reasonable to think that publishing panic-inducing articles like “stock market will soon CRASH 49%!!” would decrease consumer confidence.
I think that’s pretty much what the foundation series was about, predicting a system changes it.
That’s what they are paid to do. Big fund takes a short position, then pays analysts to produce stories to make their short position profitable.
Cassandra complex
Wouldn’t that be the exact opposite of a Cassandra complex.
lol. Unprofitable companies are getting billion dollar IPOs and we are shocked at this prediction?
Ahh, Business Insider, the most eager place in the world to let managers talk their book and frame it as news.
I could also fart hard enough to reach orbit. I probably won’t… but I could.
I’m not going to do the math, but I’m pretty sure you can’t. The forces required would probably destroy your body before you left the ground.
He never said he’d reach orbit alive or in 1 piece
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I just enjoy her facial expressions. Wish we got to see the “did something die in there” expression at the end of it all.
Fart big, bro
We’ve been due for a recession since 2020–the drastic pullback for several months at the onset of COVID was hardly a “recession,” more like a blip. I’ve finally stopped saying it’s imminently going to happen, which maybe means it’s going to happen now.
It’s bad economics to dismiss a recession as if it didn’t happen just because it wasn’t as severe as you would like. Many recessions are mild and little more than a “blip”, that’s completely normal and ignoring them will only lead you to faulty conclusions about what is actually going on with the economy.
My comment was mostly intended as a joke (like me being bullish is going to make the market move in the other direction), but I do think that what happened in 2020 was artificially can-kicked down the road by unprecedented government intervention in the market. So it’s less of a “severe as I’d like” scenario and more of a “curtailed by massive global intervention in the economy.” Maybe that staved it off forever and we will have a soft landing? Possible, but I don’t think so.
Gonna keep contributing monthly like always.
Dollar cost averaging baby!
pushes up glasses ACSHUALLY. Ok, JK.
But for real, DCA usually implies one has a choice. “Do I lump sum this or DCA?” In this case, I don’t have a lump sum, I just add money from my paycheck every month.
If I did have a lump sum to put into the market, I would not DCA since DCA does worse ~66% of the time. Most of the time, one would be better off putting the entire sum into the market all at once.
Dollar cost averaging, as in contribute regularly, you’ll buy when things cost less you’ll buy when things cost more it won’t matter over time.
Just keep contributing and the numbers will go up over time.
We’ve been pumping too much money into the economy. Where do you think most of it ends up? Not in the pockets of working people.
Not “the economy”, just a few select large corporations and the financial industry. It’s not like your uncle’s bakery is exploding right now.
This “elite strategist” is welcome to short the S&P 500 if he’s so confident and not just trying to get attention. The net of all people with money in the stock market disagree with him so he could make some good money if he’s right.
Curious, isn’t it, that recession talk is coming back right when an election is heating up…
Predictable
AI and related companies are here to stay for the most part. Overvalued in the short term but not in the long term, as again, this stuff is going to stay.
AI is incompatible with capitalism.
Why so?
Corporations want the cheapest solution. AI is the cheapest solution for many existing human job positions. Who will pay the humans for their inferior services?
So more profit for the companies. That’s what capitalism does and country create laws to suck out taxes from companies. At least they should. It all ends with UBI, but meanwhile even AI companies need a lot of supervision and therefore workers, as the results aren’t perfect. I don’t see how AI is incompatible with capitalism.
You’re hopeful. I think it ends with revolution.
What AI companies are in the S&P500?
Google? Amd? nvidia?
Still waiting for that padded recession the news mentioned a month ago. Padded for the rich investor assholes, but not for the average American.
Be a great time to buy then.
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