I’ve had trans reports in the past when I was a supervisor (TBF, the world was a lot different). Two things that I’d recommend:
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Continue being a good lead and treating them with respect, using their preferred pronouns, etc. Intervene gently but firmly if there is inappropriate derogatory stuff going on in the workplace.
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If possible, I’d get a 1:1 meeting with them and outright ask “Do you want to talk with me about how current events are impacting you and anything that I can do to ensure that you feel supported?”. If they say “no” or aren’t comfortable, ensure that they know that that’s ok and that the offer is there.
As a disclaimer, I am neurospicy so, there may be gentler ways to approach but I have found that clearly and directly communicating that genuine support is there, if they need it want it and giving them a way to ask is generally well-received.
Been there for most of my life. And I’ve watched anti-electoralists and non-voters help walk back nearly every bit of progress I’ve seen in my lifetime.