It’s 11% of what it was in late July if that helps

“Where’s Joe? Kamawho? Doh I guess I’ll just vote for Trump, I liked cheaper gas”

California is only 57%

Had Trump won in 2020, he’d have taken the fall for the Recession and Hyperinflation and it would have caused a 2008 effect. Populist Wave haulted, strangled in it’s crib by Coronachan.

Had Trump won in 2020, he’d be done now and his VP would still be the democracy respecting Pence.

Trump when elected in 2016 had no major plan and mostly left the employees of the state intact, and in 2020 the change was minimal. Now there’s a full blown scheme to control the government

In 2020 they didn’t know how much they could get away with. They’ve seen the limits now.

Winning in 2020 means no January 6th shattering the overton window and leading SCOTUS to some interesting choices about power.

2020-2024 had one Supreme Court Justice to appoint. Now there’s another 2 if not 3

In 2020 it would have been close. Now Democrats will have to regain ground, New Jersey New Hampshire and Minnesota are now Swing States.

2016 Trump had his populist wave weakened by Gary Johnson and Evan McMulin who blocked the popular vote and kept states like Colorado and New Mexico out of his hands. 2016 Trump sucked with Hispanics. That initial wave would have burnt out with the COVID fuckery. Instead Democrats slotted in, took the 4 worst possible years, and are handing it back having effectively both given them another shot in the arm and crippled themselves. There goes the court. This isn’t John Kerry, it’s Carter.

I’ve heard of 2020 hindsight, but this is ridiculous

Had Trump won in 2020, he’d have taken the fall for the Recession and Hyperinflation and it would have caused a 2008 effect. Populist Wave haulted, strangled in it’s crib by Coronachan.

Had Trump won in 2020, he’d be done now and his VP would still be the democracy respecting Pence.

Trump when elected in 2016 had no major plan and mostly left the employees of the state intact, and in 2020 the change was minimal. Now there’s a full blown scheme to control the government

In 2020 they didn’t know how much they could get away with. They’ve seen the limits now.

Winning in 2020 means no January 6th shattering the overton window and leading SCOTUS to some interesting choices about power.

2020-2024 had one Supreme Court Justice to appoint. Now there’s another 2 if not 3

In 2020 it would have been close. Now Democrats will have to regain ground, New Jersey New Hampshire and Minnesota are now Swing States.

2016 Trump had his populist wave weakened by Gary Johnson and Evan McMulin who blocked the popular vote and kept states like Colorado and New Mexico out of his hands. 2016 Trump sucked with Hispanics. That initial wave would have burnt out with the COVID fuckery. Instead Democrats slotted in, took the 4 worst possible years, and are handing it back having effectively both given them another shot in the arm and crippled themselves. There goes the court. This isn’t John Kerry, it’s Carter.

I’ve heard of 2020 hindsight, but this is ridiculous

Had Trump won in 2020, he’d have taken the fall for the Recession and Hyperinflation and it would have caused a 2008 effect. Populist Wave haulted, strangled in it’s crib by Coronachan.

Had Trump won in 2020, he’d be done now and his VP would still be the democracy respecting Pence.

Trump when elected in 2016 had no major plan and mostly left the employees of the state intact, and in 2020 the change was minimal. Now there’s a full blown scheme to control the government

In 2020 they didn’t know how much they could get away with. They’ve seen the limits now.

Winning in 2020 means no January 6th shattering the overton window and leading SCOTUS to some interesting choices about power.

2020-2024 had one Supreme Court Justice to appoint. Now there’s another 2 if not 3

In 2020 it would have been close. Now Democrats will have to regain ground, New Jersey New Hampshire and Minnesota are now Swing States.

2016 Trump had his populist wave weakened by Gary Johnson and Evan McMulin who blocked the popular vote and kept states like Colorado and New Mexico out of his hands. 2016 Trump sucked with Hispanics. That initial wave would have burnt out with the COVID fuckery. Instead Democrats slotted in, took the 4 worst possible years, and are handing it back having effectively both given them another shot in the arm and crippled themselves. There goes the court. This isn’t John Kerry, it’s Carter.

I’ve heard of 2020 hindsight, but this is ridiculous

He stopped saying Mexicans or Hispanics and started saying Illegals for the most part. Boom.

Also I’ve seen a lot of ‘first they came for the socialists’ type posting about that. In a fucked up way that’s actually the outcome the Democrats want. The other option is the Hispanics became ‘honorary whites’, the next Italian or Irish. Hispanic isn’t even really a race in the sense that black or white or asian(or native american, technically those two are one race sorta long story), it’s Mixed, European White - Slave Black - Native Mesoamerican, just mixed and mixing with other mixed so long you can’t really pick it out. We usually call the whiter ones Hispanics and the ones with a lot more Native or Black mestizo or creole or…Native and Black. Hispanic Culture is heavily christian and European influenced, it can be integrated into that coalition without too much trouble.

If the established second generation Hispanics settle into reliable Republican or even just the men, that’s a Southern Strategy tier realignment. The Democrats are fucked for a generation. Outgroups don’t stay Outgroups forever, and we know how European Cultured Religious ‘in-groups’ do in the USA.

Think Carter. Nixon had a populist wave born out of the DNCs 1968 disaster destroying the Kennedy lead operation dating back years, it was big. Then a huge scandal knocked the wind out of him, populist wave was down, Democrats won with a safe white guy, mission accomplished? Except the economy imploded and a ton of foreign wars happened and everyone blamed ‘histories greatest monster’ and the Republican populist wave that would have died with Nixon got a round to breathe and the Democrats took the fall for the disaster in Carters term. 8 years of Reagan followed and then 4 years of Reagan 2, Texas Boogaloo. Except Reagan was old and JD Vance isn’t.

I compared these threads to the one in 2016 announcing the win. Mostly different vibes(more awe and surprise and ‘maybe it won’t be so bad’ and less horror), but two things in common.

1. Brexit comparisons(2016 had more, but still)
2. People blaming a dead beloved mammal for cursing the timeline(Squirrelboy is up there with Harambe now…)

Also 2020 Trump was still struggling with Hispanics. The 2015 rhetoric really hurt him there. Too fucking late to put that genie back in the bottle. It’s gone man, solid gone

Alright fair point then my bad. I think the rest of it stands well enough though

Had Trump won in 2020, he’d have taken the fall for the Recession and Hyperinflation and it would have caused a 2008 effect. Populist Wave haulted, strangled in it’s crib by Coronachan.

Had Trump won in 2020, he’d be done now and his VP would still be the democracy respecting Pence.

Trump when elected in 2016 had no major plan and mostly left the employees of the state intact, and in 2020 the change was minimal. Now there’s a full blown scheme to control the government

In 2020 they didn’t know how much they could get away with. They’ve seen the limits now.

Winning in 2020 means no January 6th shattering the overton window and leading SCOTUS to some interesting choices about power.

2020-2024 had one Supreme Court Justice to appoint. Now there’s another 2 if not 3

In 2020 it would have been close. Now Democrats will have to regain ground, New Jersey New Hampshire and Minnesota are now Swing States.

2016 Trump had his populist wave weakened by Gary Johnson and Evan McMulin who blocked the popular vote and kept states like Colorado and New Mexico out of his hands. 2016 Trump sucked with Hispanics. That initial wave would have burnt out with the COVID fuckery. Instead Democrats slotted in, took the 4 worst possible years, and are handing it back having effectively both given them another shot in the arm and crippled themselves. There goes the court. This isn’t John Kerry, it’s Carter.

I’ve heard of 2020 hindsight, but this is ridiculous

I think there’s a handful of small rural counties where a couple fewer Trump voters showed up? I mean there’s like 3 or 4 counties where John Kerry is the best democrat preformance since 2000 so weird shit can happen

yes

Nevada, a swing state(well, supposed to be one, it seemingly didn’t get close enough to count) was won by bigger margins then states like Minnesota, or New Jersey(which was a ‘safe blue’ state). Illinois shifted massively and Harris only one it by 7.5 points. Virginia might be slightly sub-Hillary margins. New Mexico would have broken the swing state margin if not for RFK Jr.

If you gave Harris the minimal number of votes to flip the Swing States and nothing else, she’d win the EC, but not the Popular Vote due to Trump bumping up his margins everywhere and cutting into blue state margins

I will note at the rate things are going Trump has like a 85% chance of beating his 2020 numbers and a small chance of beating Biden’s 2020 numbers. It’s not JUST Harris poor turnout.

(Also her turnout was only bad by 2020 standards, it’s still higher than John Kerry or Gore or Hillary)

Just with a bit of estimation of the remaining 12% of votes uncounted, Trump is going to beat his 2020 vote record by a couple million, 81 million on the high end and maybe closer to 77 million on the low end. Unlikely, but possible he beats the 2020 all time record set by Biden. Definitely beats his 2020 numbers.

Kamala recently pulled ahead of Hillary’s 65 million and Obama’s 66 million, she’s gonna end up around 71-74 million.

Kamala lost the Popular Vote. In fact she won some blue states by smaller margins then she lost some ‘swing’ states. Nevada might not even be tight enough to qualify as a swing state this election(needs to be 5% or less, Trump’s currently winning by 5.2% meaning it wasn’t a swing state), meanwhile Minnesota was won by 3, New Jersey by 4, New Hampshire by 4 and a half, and Maine might be lost we’ll see, but those 4 were all swing states as the margin was less than 5%. New Mexico and Virginia came very close(and New Mexico would have been under 5 without RFK Jr dragging Trump down a point).

This also suggests the Electoral College no longer favors Republicans, and is somewhere between neutral and actually favoring Democrats again. 2028 a tight election with a Democrat win could see them lose the PV and win the EC.

I had a ton of 2004 vibes from the start and it looks like that was correct. He is coming back to serve a second term, and YES, this time he won the national electiiion. Oh thanks to your Ohia and your brother Jebidiah

(Also you can’t blame third parties this time, they did horribly nationwide. At worst maybe they tightened up Virginia a bit just through how uniquely bad for Democrats it was there, but on the other hand RFK Jr is the only reason New Mexico didn’t crack a sub 5 margin and go into Swing State territory again(Harris won by 5.2 there and RFK got 1 point. No third party means that crosses the 5 point threshold)

Just with a bit of estimation of the remaining 12% of votes uncounted, Trump is going to beat his 2020 vote record by a couple million, 81 million on the high end and maybe closer to 77 million on the low end. Unlikely, but possible he beats the 2020 all time record set by Biden. Definitely beats his 2020 numbers.

Kamala recently pulled ahead of Hillary’s 65 million and Obama’s 66 million, she’s gonna end up around 71-74 million.

Kamala lost the Popular Vote. In fact she won some blue states by smaller margins then she lost some ‘swing’ states. Nevada might not even be tight enough to qualify as a swing state this election(needs to be 5% or less, Trump’s currently winning by 5.2% meaning it wasn’t a swing state), meanwhile Minnesota was won by 3, New Jersey by 4, New Hampshire by 4 and a half, and Maine might be lost we’ll see, but those 4 were all swing states as the margin was less than 5%. New Mexico and Virginia came very close(and New Mexico would have been under 5 without RFK Jr dragging Trump down a point).

This also suggests the Electoral College no longer favors Republicans, and is somewhere between neutral and actually favoring Democrats again. 2028 a tight election with a Democrat win could see them lose the PV and win the EC.

I had a ton of 2004 vibes from the start and it looks like that was correct. He is coming back to serve a second term, and YES, this time he won the national electiiion

(Also you can’t blame third parties this time, they did horribly nationwide. At worst maybe they tightened up Virginia a bit just through how uniquely bad for Democrats it was there, but on the other hand RFK Jr is the only reason New Mexico didn’t crack a sub 5 margin and go into Swing State territory again(Harris won by 5.2 there and RFK got 1 point. No third party means that crosses the 5 point threshold)

Just with a bit of estimation of the remaining 12% of votes uncounted, Trump is going to beat his 2020 vote record by a couple million, 81 million on the high end and maybe closer to 77 million on the low end. Unlikely, but possible he beats the 2020 all time record set by Biden. Definitely beats his 2020 numbers.

Kamala recently pulled ahead of Hillary’s 65 million and Obama’s 66 million, she’s gonna end up around 71-74 million.

Kamala lost the Popular Vote. In fact she won some blue states by smaller margins then she lost some ‘swing’ states. Nevada might not even be tight enough to qualify as a swing state this election(needs to be 5% or less, Trump’s currently winning by 5.2% meaning it wasn’t a swing state), meanwhile Minnesota was won by 3, New Jersey by 4, New Hampshire by 4 and a half, and Maine might be lost we’ll see, but those 4 were all swing states as the margin was less than 5%. New Mexico and Virginia came very close(and New Mexico would have been under 5 without RFK Jr dragging Trump down a point).

This also suggests the Electoral College no longer favors Republicans, and is somewhere between neutral and actually favoring Democrats again. 2028 a tight election with a Democrat win could see them lose the PV and win the EC.

I had a ton of 2004 vibes from the start and it looks like that was correct. He is coming back to serve a second term, and YES, this time he won the national electiiion

(Also you can’t blame third parties this time, they did horribly nationwide. At worst maybe they tightened up Virginia a bit just through how uniquely bad for Democrats it was there, but on the other hand RFK Jr is the only reason New Mexico didn’t crack a sub 5 margin and go into Swing State territory again(Harris won by 5.2 there and RFK got 1 point. No third party means that crosses the 5 point threshold)

Just with a bit of estimation of the remaining 12% of votes uncounted, Trump is going to beat his 2020 vote record by a couple million, 81 million on the high end and maybe closer to 77 million on the low end. Unlikely, but possible he beats the 2020 all time record set by Biden. Definitely beats his 2020 numbers.

Kamala recently pulled ahead of Hillary’s 65 million and Obama’s 66 million, she’s gonna end up around 71-74 million.

Kamala lost the Popular Vote. In fact she won some blue states by smaller margins then she lost some ‘swing’ states. Nevada might not even be tight enough to qualify as a swing state this election(needs to be 5% or less, Trump’s currently winning by 5.2% meaning it wasn’t a swing state), meanwhile Minnesota was won by 3, New Jersey by 4, New Hampshire by 4 and a half, and Maine might be lost we’ll see, but those 4 were all swing states as the margin was less than 5%. New Mexico and Virginia came very close(and New Mexico would have been under 5 without RFK Jr dragging Trump down a point).

This also suggests the Electoral College no longer favors Republicans, and is somewhere between neutral and actually favoring Democrats again. 2028 a tight election with a Democrat win could see them lose the PV and win the EC.

I had a ton of 2004 vibes from the start and it looks like that was correct. He is coming back to serve a second term, and YES, this time he won the national electiiion

(Also you can’t blame third parties this time, they did horribly nationwide. At worst maybe they tightened up Virginia a bit just through how uniquely bad for Democrats it was there, but on the other hand RFK Jr is the only reason New Mexico didn’t crack a sub 5 margin and go into Swing State territory again(Harris won by 5.2 there and RFK got 1 point. No third party means that crosses the 5 point threshold)