A panel of Michigan Democratic voters offered their raw thoughts on Biden during an MSNBC segment and most are not ready to vote for him in November.
  • pewter@lemmy.world
    2·
    10 months ago

    Capable? Polling is a catastrophe for Democrats. 45 has a high probability of returning to the White House.

    • OldWoodFrame@lemm.ee
      3·
      10 months ago

      Polling in Michigan is essentially 50/50. Polls have Trump up by within the margin of error, with an impossible 10-20% of people undecided or voting third party.

      Meanwhile there is no likely voter screen on current polls, and when the NYT did a likely voter screen nationally it helped Biden (Trump historically overperforms among the low-propensity voters so that tracks).

      And Trump has underperformed his polls in every race so far in the primaries.

      And it’s 9 months until the election.

      You’d rather be on the winning side of 39-42 but it’s pretty far from catastrophic.

      • pewter@lemmy.world
        2·
        10 months ago

        Michigan is a state Biden won. If that being a dead heat is positive news for Democrats, that’s not positive. Besides, the RCP average has Trump at +5.1

        Meanwhile there is no likely voter screen on current polls,

        Based on your numbers, you were looking at the Emerson College poll for Michigan. There’s a Michigan-based poll of likely voters for only Michigan that has Trump leading 45 to 41.

        And Trump has underperformed his polls in every race so far in the primaries.

        The Republican primary has essentially been over since shortly after it began. I don’t know if we can really glean anything from it. This isn’t like Hillary vs Barack where it was actually contested and people thought they had to get to the primaries and vote.

        And it’s 9 months until the election.

        This is a very fair point, but Biden is -2.1 right now. Biden was approximately +5.4 at this point last election. Clinton was +2.8. These are RCP numbers.

        I looked at the graphs for the national aggregate polling too and Trump is generally doing much better than in either previous election. The race obviously isn’t decided yet, but If I’m a DNC strategist I would be more than concerned because the electoral college does not structurally favor Democrats.

        pretty far from catastrophic.

        Fair. That was pretty hyperbolic.