A sudden marine heat wave off the coast of Florida has surprised scientists and sent water temperatures soaring to unprecedented highs, threatening one of the most severe coral bleaching events the state has ever seen.
The thing is there are cycles for this stuff. That will continue too. In Florida the years from 2004-2006 had large numbers of storm with high landfall counts. Followed by years of relative inactivity. So these cycles will also continue. Granted the storms that do but may be more intense, we are also a LOT better at prediction and modeling. The accuracy we had at 2 days in the early 2000s is closer to the accuracy we have at 5 days now.
Of course there’s cycles but even removing decadal trends, it seems like there’s there’s still an increasing trend in terms of intensity. And slower years of extreme events in there could be somewhat related to the climate hiatus period but I’m not 100% on that. And you’re absolutely right that prediction and modeling has gotten substantially better but that doesn’t mean these storms won’t still be costly. It’s an interesting issue for sure
The thing is there are cycles for this stuff. That will continue too. In Florida the years from 2004-2006 had large numbers of storm with high landfall counts. Followed by years of relative inactivity. So these cycles will also continue. Granted the storms that do but may be more intense, we are also a LOT better at prediction and modeling. The accuracy we had at 2 days in the early 2000s is closer to the accuracy we have at 5 days now.
Of course there’s cycles but even removing decadal trends, it seems like there’s there’s still an increasing trend in terms of intensity. And slower years of extreme events in there could be somewhat related to the climate hiatus period but I’m not 100% on that. And you’re absolutely right that prediction and modeling has gotten substantially better but that doesn’t mean these storms won’t still be costly. It’s an interesting issue for sure