Biden’s approval rating was now 37% in favor and 60% disapproved, Kornacki noted.
It’s “the lowest approval rating since former President George W. Bush’s second term,” said Welker.
On voters’ confidence in handling the U.S. economy, Kornecki pointed to Trump’s 55% rating and Biden’s 33%.
Edit: here’s the MSNBC clip with Kornacki https://twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1754211558631084417
Reminder that national polls are useless because the United States doesn’t have national elections. There are 50 individual state elections, plus Washington D.C., which establish 535 Electoral College votes, 270 to win.
States like Washington, Oregon, California are going to Biden, no contest.
States like Texas, Louisiana, Alabama are going to Trump, no contest.
The election will be decided by the toss-up states. Unless the poll is talking about one of these states it can be safely ignored.
Arizona: Trump +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Georgia: Trump +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Michigan: Trump +5 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Minnesota: Biden +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Nevada: Trump +8 to +12
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Biden +8 but the most recent poll is from August which is effectively useless now.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Pennsylvania: Biden +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Wisconsin: Tie to Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Virginia: Biden +3, also an old poll, from December.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Taking that information and plugging it into an electoral college map:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2020-PG-no-allocations&game-view=map
Trump wins 293 to 245.
This is a change from the last times I posted this where Trump won, 312 to 226 and 278 to 260. Michigan is still polling for Trump instead of Biden, Pennsylvania has BARELY slipped back to Biden.
Michigan and Wisconsin BOTH are must wins for Biden. He must also hold Pennsylania. Those three would put him at 270 even. Failing there is what doomed Hillary in 2016.
Previously, Biden needed to pick up +10.
Well, that’s disconcerting.
Oh, yeah, Imma be watching it like a HAWK through the rest of the primaries and the conventions.
I expect to do regular updates like this. It will be more of a nailbiter than anyone expects… Except for those of us in safe states.
I live in Oregon and I already know it’s going Biden. What worries me are these toss-up states.