There has been a fud, fear mongering, excuse providing ‘looming recession’ every single time things are going kind of ok.

I think there is a bigger chance of people starting to default on their student debts and on their stupid car loans than the commercial real estate alone causing anything.

You can literally just convert office buildings into apartments if you want.

I didn’t mean to say it’s going to be as big as the 2008 crisis but the idea was that it’s gonna create a similar domino effect.

Here are some stuff about this.

https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/real-estate/commercial-real-estate/commercial-real-estate-trends

https://www2.deloitte.com/ca/en/pages/real-estate/articles/2024-realestate-outlook.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kevin-o-leary-says-coming-230043170.html

https://youtu.be/YLshGvV0lRo?si=yTpYIyGLFFVv4D6i

https://youtu.be/Jq_6RKHJIIA?si=F43pJoeDv9FvUGCw

https://youtu.be/-V9yPGdubHQ?si=hdrxXJ71g3mwVyO2

I’m not an Economist but from what I understand the argument is like this:

1- Covid changed the work culture and made remote work viable

2- This in turn reduced the value of Commercial Real-Estate

3- There’s a lot of investment of Comm. real estate. And investors & owners wanted to keep the value of their assets high.

4- So there was the RTO mandates. Which was initially pushed by the investors.

5- Ukraine war creates inflation and raised interest rates. The time of free money is over.

6- Now investors push for companies to turn profit instead of growth.

7- Companies try to cut costs to please the investors. Mass layoffs happening. Startups going bankrupt.

8- Since the interest rates are still high and investors saw that turning growth into profit wasn’t that easy they are shy to put in money into new investments. Especially IT (AI excluded)

9- Investments dried up which means there’s less growth potential for companies meaning even less demand for Commercial Real-Estate. Which means whoever invested heavily (with loans) into comm. Real-Estate will go under when it’s time to pay back.

10- The banks who are heavily invested in Comm. Real-Estate will get affected meaning there will be even less money for investment causing an economic recession.

https://old.lemmy.world/post/11314307

https://old.lemmy.world/comment/7121127