This tech giant has made for a wonderful investment in recent years.

Almost Half of Warren Buffett-led Berkshire Hathaway’s $365 Billion Portfolio Is Invested in Only 1 Stock::This tech giant has made for a wonderful investment in recent years.

  • surewhynotlem@lemmy.worldEnglish
    6·
    11 months ago

    Don’t mistake statistics for reality. Statistics describe reality, they don’t dictate it.

    In this situation, there could be a 1:100M chance for any random investor to be this successful. Or there could be a 1:3 chance but you need to meet specific criteria, which he and only a few others have.

    You can’t describe a situation with dice rolls unless you’re very sure what kind of dice you’re rolling.

    • CoggyMcFee@lemmy.worldEnglish
      2·
      11 months ago

      I was responding to purely hypothetical odds that someone just made up, in which case things can be as complicated or simple as one wants them to be.

      But even if I were making an actual prediction based on real statistical data, I am not sure why you would think that having an expectation of the approximate distribution of something given what we know about its statistical likelihood is “mistaking statistics for actual reality”.