I do acknowledge that there are a number of slightly-different definitions of genocide, so here’s the Merriam-Webster definition, which is how I use it: “the deliberate and systematic destruction of a racial, political, or cultural group.” Further, it’s not about the current slaughter in Gaza, it’s about the manifest end-game of decades of Israeli policy and actions. That is, destruction of Palestine is the only possible outcome that would meet Israel’s terms.

What are their terms? At the risk of oversimplifying it:

1. No one-state solution; Palestinians cannot live in the territory of Israel. It has steadfastly refused the right-of-return for refugees, and passed a law in 2018 that created a Jewish ethno-state instead of a true democracy. This makes sense in realpolitik terms, since that would leaves Jews an ethnic minority in Israel. Obviously, a non-starter. So, no one-state solution.

2. No two-state solution. That’s obvious from when the government of Israel rejected the Arab Peace Initiative, on offer of peace within the 1967 borders. The rejection may have been ideological, as right-wing Israeli politicians talk about their vision of “Greater Israel” from the river to the sea, and sometimes including the Sinai peninsula. Or it could have been practical, again a non-starter in realpolitick terms, because it would’ve required evicting all the settlers who have stolen land from Palestine. Now, the land that potentially could be Palestine is so chopped up, and disjointed, it’s not really viable. So, no two-state solution.

If the people of Palestine can’t live there as citizens of Israel, and can’t live there as citizens of Palestine, then there’s a third option:

3. A stateless solution, under which Palestinians live as stateless people under Israeli military rule, a.k.a. the old status quo. This hasn’t worked out so well, as people have a tendency to fight back against oppression. So, the stateless solution isn’t tenable, long-term.

Furthermore, settlers keep encroaching, keep taking more land, and in fact have used the conflict in Gaza to step up the campaign of terrorism and land theft against Palestinians in the West Bank. Not only is the Israeli government not stopping them, some of its members are floating trial balloons about nuking Gaza, and writing memos to each other (which have leaked) about forcing the people of Gaza into Egypt and seizing the land. These are examples of the sole remaining option:

4. Palestinians can’t live there at all. Expulsion would do, but since other Arab nations don’t want to be destabilized by a refugee crisis, it certainly appears that Israel isn’t going to reject the option of simply killing large numbers of people. Voilà, genocide! It’s not that anybody in Israel intends to perpetrate genocide against Palestine, it’s just the cold logic of historical forces that inexorably drive them to it. Those forces don’t leave room for any good outcome should Palestinians surrender.

(And, indeed, the military detentions described in the article occur in the West Bank, which is not at war with Israel, so going along to get along isn’t working.)