A year away from Election Day 2024, former President Donald Trump is set to testify in a civil fraud trial and separately faces more than 90 criminal charges, setting up the possibility that a convicted felon tops the Republican ticket next November.
But it’s President Joe Biden’s political prospects that are plunging.
In another extraordinary twist to a 2024 campaign season that is more notable for court hearings than treks through early voting states, Trump is expected to be called to the witness stand in New York on Monday. This is hardly typical activity during a post-presidency. But Trump was, after all, the most unconventional president.
This is the embarrassment that is America now. We will probably never recover from this.
In my outsider opinion you have one more chance. This is it. If you can repel Fascism this time it will get easier next time. If you don’t, I fear for us all.
Unfortunately, nobody is an outsider anymore.
Wish i could do some laughing and mocking besides all the crying but with afd(german far right/fascists largely) on the rise and the conservatives moving a step into their direction every other week there is really no energy left to laugh at anything.
So the 2030s are just gonna be a repeat of the 1930s?
Hopefully not but it sure seems like people fancy some fascism all arpund the globe. I find it kinda hard to not fall in to doomerism these days. Just gotta believe extra hard but i am running low on hopium and copium.
Same here for what it’s worth
You think you recovered from slavery or the genocide of the indigenous people, but not trump?
I’d argue we haven’t “recovered” from those at all. Racism of still very much a factor in our politics and culture and, sadly, indigenous people are a small enough group that we kinda ignore the embarrassment without really doing anything about it beyond it contributing to relative small racism and legal battles.
I mean the US is pretty much the wealthiest and most productive society in the history of the world. Yes, our collective souls are stained forever by the sins of our fathers, but that’s hardly unique to the US.
Trump is actually going to usher in a new era of darkness which is going to be as bad as anyone alive has ever seen. I get that some people are still in denial, but this real.
What are you talking about? Still with the usa number 1? You are delusional.
I’m sorry that objective measures of economic output upset you?
I got some bad news for ya buddy, Biden signed off on more land than trump to be used for fossil fuel extraction. Doesn’t matter who’s in charge when we’re heading full steam ahead towards a climate apocalypse thanks to capitalism! Choo Choo!
What the hell happened to CNN?
It got bought out by a right winger with the explicit intention of making it more like Fox.
See also Newsweek and The Hill.
Well he’s fucking succeeding. This article was trash.
horse race = ratings = more money
Siena College is a private Franciscan college. The Franciscans are a group of related mendicant Christian religious orders. Siena was founded by the Order of Friars Minor in 1937. The college has 3,000 full-time students.
So, a conservative Christian college says Trump is ahead. Got it.
Siena is reputable when it comes to polling. It’s not like they just choose a friar to guess what the outcome of an election will be. This kind of surface-level criticism is bad for consuming accurate information.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/siena-college/
i mean 538 and nate silver have always been garbage
They’ve always been pretty good, aside from their centrist ass political takes. They have a pretty good track record and got closer to predicting Trump winning in 2016 than anybody else.
There are numerous polls showing Trump is ahead of Biden, by a significant margin. The recent turmoil in Gaza is definitely widening that gap.
Biden needs to drop out of the race now, for America to avoid another Trump presidency. Any democrat will do, but not Biden. Unfortunately his ego won’t have it, nor will the demands of the corporate oligarchs, so unless Americans are willing to riot (we aren’t, couch too comfy) we are well and truly fucked.
I live near Sienna and my son visited there as he looks at colleges. It’s definitely still got religious roots (the friars are still a constant presence), but they’ve gotten more non-denominational. I also got the impression that they aren’t that conservative. They might not be as liberal as some colleges, but they aren’t alt-right either.
That being said, my son decided against Sienna for various reasons (including the fact that their Computer Science department seems tiny compared to other colleges in the area).
The bigger issue isn’t the college’s leaning, it’s that polls a year out are pretty worthless. In politics, a year is basically forever. The big issues driving voters right now can be completely different a year from now. Events and scandals can crop up that could be the focus of the 2024 election. So while perhaps the Biden campaign should use this poll to remind themselves not to be complacent, I don’t think this poll means that it’s time to panic.
The people running the dem party would rather repeat 2016 than give voters a choice.
Regardless of who wins in 2024, they’re going to loudly proclaim it means the party needs to move to the right.
This is what happens when both parties are beholden to the same donors. A loss isn’t really a lose to them like it is to us. The only way they lose is if a progressive without ties to those donors wins or makes enough noise that voters realize there’s no real reason why the Dem candidate can only be slightly better than a Republican in some areas.
ah yes it’s the dems fault nobody credible decided to run
It sort of was?
Bernie Sanders had a great chance to face Trump for the 2016 elections, and the democrat media had a horrible campaign against him while favoring Hillary Clinton. Then, once Hillary got the nomination, surprise!!! correspondence came to light in which those at the top in the party said that Sanders should absolutely NOT have the nomination.
I’m a liberal dude, but I’m also very cynical of the U.S. political system. At the very top, those assholes love a “good” status quo.
i like bernie but bernie couldn’t win outside of the coasts in a primary let alone a general.
hillary clinton had spent decades in the democratic party; bernie sanders hadn’t. of course hillary would have more delegates and history over sanders; doesn’t mean it was rigged or anything.
I understand it wasn’t rigged, but if Trump getting into power taught is anything is that the media played a major role to have her win the nomination. That’s my point.
Though come to think of it, maybe the Russians had their hand in it as well.
In Nevada, which Biden narrowly won in 2020, Trump leads 52% to Biden’s 41%. Trump leads in Georgia, a state where he is facing racketeering charges, 49% to Biden’s 43%. The ex-president up 49% to 44% in Arizona, another key state. In Michigan, which Trump won in 2016 and Biden won in 2020, the Republican is up 5 points.
The poll shows Biden weakening among Black and Hispanic voters. And 71% of those polled said he was too old to be an effective president, while only 39% said the same of Trump – who is 77.
Spencer Weiss, a Pennsylvania voter quoted by The Times who backed Biden in 2020 but now supports Trump, said: “The world is falling apart under Biden.” He added: “I would much rather see somebody that I feel can be a positive role-model leader for the country. But at least I think Trump has his wits about him.”
I simply don’t believe that any person could switch from Biden to Trump.
This voter they spoke to must be lying about supporting Biden in 2020.
If Trump gains support in a state, it has to be that people moved in or out of the state.
It could still affect the election, but at least my interpretation would mean that there is some limit to a single person’s stupidity.
Don’t get complacent. There are millions of people that buy republican lies hook, line and sinker.
Seems to me that people may sit out or vote for a third party candidate given bad choices. I doubt many people switch to Trump from Biden, but going to the polls won’t be exciting.
A record number of people voted in the last election, and both candidates got millions more votes than 2016. And some margins in key states were extremely small. All it would take is a town or two’s worth of voters staying home in order to sway the margin in a bunch of key states.
This voter they spoke to must be lying about supporting Biden in 2020.
Mr. Weiss doesn’t exist. You can trust me… I have a source familiar with the matter!
(Well, I assume a high probability that he doesn’t exist)
I’ve seen a few times when there were testimonials like this, and when somebody dug into the history of the person, inevitably that person was always a far right winger, and they’re just lying. Although I wouldn’t put making him up past CNN, either.
You guys give a hoot about polls since 2016?
Still talking about the Hillary polls?
The polls correctly predicted a high likelihood of her winning the popular vote. It’s not the fault of the polls that the actual decider is an anti-democratic and unpollable system that disproportionately favors empty land over people.
There were several models from sources like 538 that took the electoral map into account and still got it wrong. People didn’t admit their cult membership back then, today they are afraid to hide it.
538 said Trump had about a 30% chance of winning.
In what way did they “get it wrong?”
That’s partly true. 538 in particular has a tendency to be overly sure of itself and too cute by half.
A lot of what they do includes much more educated guesswork than actual polling, though, so “538 got it wrong” ≠ “the concept of polling got it wrong”
I think you’re mistaken about “getting it wrong” here. If a statistician says “Candidate A has a 99 % chance of winning”, and the candidate loses, that doesn’t mean the statistician was wrong, just that the improbable happened. If you have a repeatable experiment you can do the experiment many times to see if Candidate A wins 99% of the time, if they don’t then the statistician is wrong.
Problem is: We can’t do multiple, uncorrelated elections to test, so we can’t ever disprove the statistician. What we can do, is look at a bunch of prior elections, the predictions made, and see if we prefer trusting the statistician over not trusting them.
I think if you look at a bunch of election results and predictions, and take confidence margins into account, that you’ll find the statisticians are more often right than wrong. But you need to interpret the statistical predictions correctly.
Point taken.
so you agree the polls were wrong and inaccurate
No. They correctly and accurately measured likelihood of winning the popular vote.
That people misinterpret them doesn’t make the polls wrong, it makes the people misinterpreting them wrong.
so you agree the polls were wrong and inaccurate
Its a lot easier to be wrong when you cant factor in things like cheating… you might want to take note that trump has been indicted for cheating in 2016 by Bragg, thats not something polls could have known or could have factored in. And the hush money case is just one we know about, I assume he and the repug cheated on all sorts of levels to get trump in, again none of those factors can be predicted accurately.
AND being WRONG about something is not the same as ‘The Polsters were Lying in 2016’ which is what the far right constantly asserts without proof. Polls are not lies just because they got one wrong once time, this is the main problem with all right wing thought, they cannot tell the difference between MSNBC getting something wrong once 12 years ago, and the proven in court fact that FAUX 'News" Lying right to their faces on a nightly basis.
Especially polls a year early.
Particularly when people are upset at Biden for Israel stuffs… the reality is, none of the progressives that support Palestine will ever support a republican
(and let’s be honest, trump probably would have had troops on the ground going into combat in Gaza too. Biden’s response is more moderate than that brand of Republicanism.)
And a lot of the people who, right now, are saying “we’ll vote third party” or “we just won’t vote” will change their tune if it comes to November and it’s a close Biden vs Trump.
This isn’t to say that Biden should take these votes for granted, of course. (Hillary made the fatal mistake of taking votes for granted.) However, it’s a common occurrence for people to refuse to back one party’s candidate a year out and then come back into the fold near election day. The Republicans will likely have a similar occurrence with people refusing to vote for Trump, but then deciding to do so in November 2024.
Do you know how many poll requests are in my spam folder? Only old people get polls.
Same phone polls are the worst - they only call land lines. Who do you know who (a) has a land line and (b) answers numbers they don’t recognize?
This is the best summary I could come up with:
And an increasingly authoritarian Trump – who is promising a second term of “retribution” – could pull off a White House comeback in spite of sparking a Capitol insurrection with his false claims of electoral fraud in 2020.
Biden’s position is weakening as he tackles cascading global threats such as the war in the Middle East, sheds support over his handling of the economy and sees cracks in the multiracial coalition that first elected him.
And while Trump’s devoted followers have bought into his claims that his criminal peril is all political persecution by the Biden administration, there is no precedent for the staggering prospect of an ex-president and potential nominee on trial in an election year.
Given that the likely Republican presidential nominee faces potential conviction, after having served a single term in the White House that was capped off with a second impeachment over his involvement in an insurrection, the question for Biden ought to be: Why is the nascent 2024 race even close?
Spencer Weiss, a Pennsylvania voter quoted by The Times who backed Biden in 2020 but now supports Trump, said: “The world is falling apart under Biden.” He added: “I would much rather see somebody that I feel can be a positive role-model leader for the country.
In addition to Blumenthal, Rep. Pramila Jayapal, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, warned that Biden was suffering over his staunch support for Israel despite its relentless pounding of Gaza after the Hamas terror attacks on October 7.
The original article contains 1,562 words, the summary contains 236 words. Saved 85%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
