Whats is going to happen in 24hours? 48hours?
Short Term Impact
I think the first 12-24hours will drive many users into confusion. The lurkers will switch over within the first 1-2days, the active community will split up, some remaining on multiple platforms (incl. reddit).
Medium Term Impact
Reddit lives from it’s moderators. But nowadays a good AI might replace that, will have a rough start but gradually become better. I still believe the communities will become streamlined and heavily automoderated due to lack of human reason. That will hurt discussion, conversations and though provoking comments.
Fediverse
The Fediverse will definitiv gain from this. Reddit will not see an immediate fall but gradually decline. The majority of users will mostly be lurkers.
What if…
BUT, with no API, no bots… Maybe, this will actually work out for reddit and a more active community will build up again. There 's always the option for a black swan of any kind.
I imagine there being a bunch of “See? Nothing’s changed! All that protesting for nothing!” type posts that get hundreds of upvotes - completely missing the forest for the trees.
I’m hoping any mods still holding out quietly step down and let the toxic people there fend for themselves. Moderators’ work is no longer valued and the public sentiment is only going to get more hostile towards them.