There’s no way the psychotic hardliners fascists in the Israeli government are going to pass up the “end game” that Hamas handed them. By destroying the sense of moral high ground worldwide, they’ve doomed themselves. They’re going to clear-cut gaza.
I am not saying either governments has the high ground. But I am commenting that Hamas fucked themselves! They’ve done away with the sympathy and protections that come with victimhood as they transitioned to embracing mass war crimes and crimes against humanity.
I’m still hoping the West Bank can escape the bulk of future Israeli war crimes and retribution (as much as possible), but I’m not holding my breath. I’d be shocked if Gaza was anything but an uninhabited wasteland after this. And again, I’m not endorsing that, just being realistic.
What Hamas did requires a response from Israel, and no amount of “truce now, k?” will be work. It’s sad, but the only course for Israel is to hit back, and hard. Anything less would be bending over and showing Hamas can do this again.
In other words, you can’t stab a person, and then go “whoa stahp” when the bleeding guy pulls a bigger gun on you.
Bystanderd will be hurt, but I hope it will be over quick and afterwards there can be a path towards something better.
I’m not expecting a clear cut, what I’m expecting is the annexation of the western edge of Gaza to gain effective control over all points of entry to be able to raise siege whenever they decide Gaza is being a problem.
After enough sieges trading in Gaza will become so costly just from risk assessment of having goods seized by the IDF that Gaza will have nothing left but the fish they’re able to get out of the Mediterranean. Anyone sending them weapons would be doing so at significant loss, and while running the risk of being put on international blast whenever they get caught.
Hamas has a lot of hostages now, including some high value ones from the IDF. They also severely humiliated the Israeli military and intelligence apparatus, reminding the world that Israel is not invulnerable and demonstrating that Hamas is a more formidable force than ever, which will help them get more international support. I think Hamas is in a strong position to secure concessions from Israel.
I read it completely the other way, that while I am NOT claiming it , there is a possibility hardliners elements in the IDF and Mossad that allowed it.
I also don’t believe the hardliners in power give a shit about the hostages. They’ve been waiting for enough cover to clear out the entirity of Gaza while avoiding universal global condemnation–and now they have that chance. Plus Israel is now unified, the human rights voices will be as surpassed as US anti-wsr voices were after 9/11.
For the horrible fascist hardliners in Israel this is exactly what they want. And I think Hamas is done. The question is really what will happen to the innocent civilians? And also will the West Bank face any aggression and crimes (beyond the normal ones they regularly deal with)?
I really think this was the worst thing Hamas could have done, for themselves and the civilians who will suffer because of them.
I suppose there is a non-zero chance that Israel decides to forsake the hostages, but I think the political cost would be too high. Also, that would really hurt IDF morale and discipline if there’s suddenly a new policy that they won’t negotiate your release if you get captured.
Something else to consider is that maybe Gaza kind of serves as a perpetual crisis that helps the Israeli hardliners maintain their grip on power. They might still want to keep it around.
There’s no way the psychotic hardliners fascists in the Israeli government are going to pass up the “end game” that Hamas handed them. By destroying the sense of moral high ground worldwide, they’ve doomed themselves. They’re going to clear-cut gaza.
I am not saying either governments has the high ground. But I am commenting that Hamas fucked themselves! They’ve done away with the sympathy and protections that come with victimhood as they transitioned to embracing mass war crimes and crimes against humanity.
I’m still hoping the West Bank can escape the bulk of future Israeli war crimes and retribution (as much as possible), but I’m not holding my breath. I’d be shocked if Gaza was anything but an uninhabited wasteland after this. And again, I’m not endorsing that, just being realistic.
What Hamas did requires a response from Israel, and no amount of “truce now, k?” will be work. It’s sad, but the only course for Israel is to hit back, and hard. Anything less would be bending over and showing Hamas can do this again.
In other words, you can’t stab a person, and then go “whoa stahp” when the bleeding guy pulls a bigger gun on you.
Bystanderd will be hurt, but I hope it will be over quick and afterwards there can be a path towards something better.
Before you engage with what I said, be sure to read up on https://lemmy.world/comment/4385358
I wish Hamas could be eradicated, it would be the single best step for Palestine, and not far behind, Israel and the rest of the world.
I’m not expecting a clear cut, what I’m expecting is the annexation of the western edge of Gaza to gain effective control over all points of entry to be able to raise siege whenever they decide Gaza is being a problem.
After enough sieges trading in Gaza will become so costly just from risk assessment of having goods seized by the IDF that Gaza will have nothing left but the fish they’re able to get out of the Mediterranean. Anyone sending them weapons would be doing so at significant loss, and while running the risk of being put on international blast whenever they get caught.
Yeah having a slave labor force for manual labor has been pretty useful and I’m sure Israel isn’t in a rush to completely get rid of that.
Hamas has a lot of hostages now, including some high value ones from the IDF. They also severely humiliated the Israeli military and intelligence apparatus, reminding the world that Israel is not invulnerable and demonstrating that Hamas is a more formidable force than ever, which will help them get more international support. I think Hamas is in a strong position to secure concessions from Israel.
Really? I find that shocking.
I read it completely the other way, that while I am NOT claiming it , there is a possibility hardliners elements in the IDF and Mossad that allowed it.
I also don’t believe the hardliners in power give a shit about the hostages. They’ve been waiting for enough cover to clear out the entirity of Gaza while avoiding universal global condemnation–and now they have that chance. Plus Israel is now unified, the human rights voices will be as surpassed as US anti-wsr voices were after 9/11.
For the horrible fascist hardliners in Israel this is exactly what they want. And I think Hamas is done. The question is really what will happen to the innocent civilians? And also will the West Bank face any aggression and crimes (beyond the normal ones they regularly deal with)?
I really think this was the worst thing Hamas could have done, for themselves and the civilians who will suffer because of them.
The Netanyahu government famously traded over one thousand Palestinian prisoners, including some lifers, for a single live IDF soldier. There have also been significant trades just for captured remains. So, the precedent is that Israel will pay a big price to get its people back.
I suppose there is a non-zero chance that Israel decides to forsake the hostages, but I think the political cost would be too high. Also, that would really hurt IDF morale and discipline if there’s suddenly a new policy that they won’t negotiate your release if you get captured.
Something else to consider is that maybe Gaza kind of serves as a perpetual crisis that helps the Israeli hardliners maintain their grip on power. They might still want to keep it around.
You’d be quite wrong to think that.
Oh wow thank you for the detailed analysis.