Attached: 1 image Just over 300 km to Moscow The Wagnerians are moving forward. The governor of the Lipetsk region, Igor Artamonov, confirmed that the equipment of the #Wagner PMC is moving on the territory of the region. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672602398915809282 #press
I am trying to understand Prigozhin’s actual thoughts on this. Wagner have been directly under Putin’s thumb for the longest time. He was arguably one of if not Putin’s closest ally. They were working in the Donbas when Wagner was formed in 2014. Most of his time since then has been spent working for Putin or having Wagner involved in the fights the Russians wanted supported in the Global South.
He’s been incredibly critical of the war, and weirdly distant from Putin for a while since the Invasion started last year. Wagner’s numbers were swelling with new men often seemingly press-ganged from convicts. He commits war crimes both against his own men, killing of deserters, and Wagner does so against Ukraine. And yet in the same breath he criticises the direction of the war and praises Ukrainian resistance such as in Bakhmut.
He seems to have a feud with the Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, he has often feuded and complained about Wagner receiving a lack of support from the Russian MoD. He complains that the elites of Russia are not toiling and bleeding in Ukraine and instead sending volunteers and conscripts to do the same.
A cursory read on the man’s background says he spent 9 years in detention for stealing and fraud. I honestly would not be surprised if that time he spent there is why he is so fond of recruting convicts as he feels some camaraderie with them.
It seems to me this mutiny is three things combined. Genuine dissatisfaction and perhaps anger with the war in Ukraine, even when his loyalty seemed assured Priogzhin was critical of it and quite outspoken. Bold-faced opportunism, Wagner is the largest and strongest it has ever been and meanwhile the Russian military’s morale and ability to fight is compromised. Accounts of Wagner doing the heavy lifting seems to suggest this may be true. The power that could be made available to Prigozhin should his mutiny succeed is tempting to an Oligarch like him as his only real fear would be Putin who is now in a weak position. And finally I think honestly he probably is some form of Russian patriot, and has come to the realisation that the war isn’t in Russia’s best interests and wants to redirect it or end it.
That said, the man is unabatedly proud of the war crimes Wagner commits, and I have no doubt that a mutiny in Russia is going to get bloody fast. Even if Prigozhin succeeds he might have a change of heart and recommit to the war in Ukraine. And if he ends it sure it might improve the qulaity of life for Russians and Ukrainians but I don’t see democracy coming any time soon to the Russian federation. If he loses the only hope is that this mutiny further weakens Putin’s position an eventually the man backs down and leaves.
All I can really for sure say is this, a PMC as important as Wagner is openly rebelling proves the Russian war effort is at a breaking point.
There are reports of a bombing plan being approved for the Ukrainian nuclear power plant, so it’s very possible that Prigozhin sees the writing on the wall and knows time is running 9ut before the situation could become entirely unsalvageable.
Listening to his videos (translated) it appears he is positioning himself with the West while cheering that he is a true Russian. Calls for Belarus to oust Lukashenko happening simultaneously along with his implication of Russian oligarchs in the Ukraine invasion as being purely a money-grab implies he’s going for a small-Russia policy to appease/pacify the west while implicating Putin in a financial rather than patriotic or anti-Nazi purpose for the Ukraine war. He’s in full-on propaganda mode.
That said, it’s best not to interfere when your enemy is busy making mistakes (or, in this case, infighting). It sounds like Ukraine is already using this opportunity. I expect everyone outside of the theater to hold tight and see how things play out, (though I would not be surprised to find out that Five Eyes is feeding some additional intel to Wagner on anything interesting popping up in Moscow).
I think it’s pretty simple.
Wagner and the Russian Army are competing for increasingly limited supplies in Ukraine.
This led Prigozhin to complain publicly about the Russian Ministry of Defense.
In response, Putin was planning to subordinate Wagner to the Russian Army.
Subordination would limit Prigozhin’s power and also reduce or eliminate his personal source of income. Which basically forced the events playing out today.