In its early phases, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is having less success and Russian forces are showing more competence than western assessments expected, two western officials and a senior US military official tell CNN.
Yeah. this is still in the “probing” and “shaping” phase, the Ukrainians are launching attacks to see which bits of the front are softest and to force the Russians to commit their reserves so that when a breakthrough happens they have fewer options to respond with.
Just today the big news was about Ukraine blowing up a vital bridge the Russians need for resupplying their lines, for example. And yesterday I was reading an interesting analysis about how the Ukrainians might actually be able to attack across the former Kakhovka reservoir now that the Russians blew up the dam and drained it. Even if they don’t do that it might make sense for them to look like they’re considering it so that the Russians have yet more front lines they need to reinforce.
People have been spoiled by reading history books in which they can take in a summary of a years-long war in a paragraph or two, or by Desert Storm which was rather a different sort of war than this one. This offensive could take months, and it doesn’t have to have a clear “beginning” and “end” moment where one side captures a flag and declares victory over the other.
The only one I mentioned specifically was bombing the Chonhar bridge. Not sure how you missed that, Russian media has reported on it and Russian politicians are making threats of retaliation over it.
I really don’t think it’s just in the probing stage. Ukraine has had a lot of losses trying to punch through Russian lines and have even publicly stated they have called for an operational pause to re-evaluate their tactics.
The tactical/strategic reserves just haven’t been deployed because a breakthrough hasn’t happened yet.
Yeah. this is still in the “probing” and “shaping” phase, the Ukrainians are launching attacks to see which bits of the front are softest and to force the Russians to commit their reserves so that when a breakthrough happens they have fewer options to respond with.
Just today the big news was about Ukraine blowing up a vital bridge the Russians need for resupplying their lines, for example. And yesterday I was reading an interesting analysis about how the Ukrainians might actually be able to attack across the former Kakhovka reservoir now that the Russians blew up the dam and drained it. Even if they don’t do that it might make sense for them to look like they’re considering it so that the Russians have yet more front lines they need to reinforce.
People have been spoiled by reading history books in which they can take in a summary of a years-long war in a paragraph or two, or by Desert Storm which was rather a different sort of war than this one. This offensive could take months, and it doesn’t have to have a clear “beginning” and “end” moment where one side captures a flag and declares victory over the other.
Could you link a source on those Ukranian wins you mention? I’m interested to read on those.
The only one I mentioned specifically was bombing the Chonhar bridge. Not sure how you missed that, Russian media has reported on it and Russian politicians are making threats of retaliation over it.
I really don’t think it’s just in the probing stage. Ukraine has had a lot of losses trying to punch through Russian lines and have even publicly stated they have called for an operational pause to re-evaluate their tactics.
The tactical/strategic reserves just haven’t been deployed because a breakthrough hasn’t happened yet.