In this report, historical fluctuations in temperature and rainfall in Latin America and the Caribbean are used to identify their causal effects on economic performance for the period 1970-2020. The results indicate that, on average, for the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, an increase of 1 °C in the average annual temperature decreases the growth rate of GDP per capita by 1 percentage point and that the effects are persistent and do not reverse in the medium term. These impacts at the city level are also examined using quarterly data from night lights captured by satellites and the existence of adverse effects associated with rising temperatures is verified. This confirms that the impact of temperatures is not limited to the agricultural sector, Rather, it affects the production system as a whole, and can materialize through sudden shocks associated with extreme weather events and not just a trend increase in temperatures. Lastly, the report projects the possible losses associated with various scenarios of rising temperatures and shows how ambitious global climate action could reduce possible losses for the region by a quarter by 2100.
Pasted translation for interested anglophiles:
In this report, historical fluctuations in temperature and rainfall in Latin America and the Caribbean are used to identify their causal effects on economic performance for the period 1970-2020. The results indicate that, on average, for the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, an increase of 1 °C in the average annual temperature decreases the growth rate of GDP per capita by 1 percentage point and that the effects are persistent and do not reverse in the medium term. These impacts at the city level are also examined using quarterly data from night lights captured by satellites and the existence of adverse effects associated with rising temperatures is verified. This confirms that the impact of temperatures is not limited to the agricultural sector, Rather, it affects the production system as a whole, and can materialize through sudden shocks associated with extreme weather events and not just a trend increase in temperatures. Lastly, the report projects the possible losses associated with various scenarios of rising temperatures and shows how ambitious global climate action could reduce possible losses for the region by a quarter by 2100.