I mean, the counter-argument is, why spend time on issues that not even your own voters agree on? I think the majority of voters, on either side of the aisle, probably do not actually know any trans people personally, which is why it’s so easy for Rs to paint them as what they want. That lack of personal stakes makes it hard issue for people to get behind. And, frankly, I think there’s a lot of assuming in online discussions that every democratic voter is on board with the idea that sex and gender are different things, but I think in actuality rather a lot of them are probably either uncomfortable with the idea or just unsure. And then when you get into questions like whether prepubescent children should be able to medically transition…there’s just going to be a lot of people not on board with that, which is precisely why it’s a point Republicans hammer on.

Here’s what I think really gets to the root of why Newsom is doing this: a lot of those Democratic voters probably feel like they can’t express their true feelings on the matter for fear of being labeled a transphobe. So Newsom is, in essence, giving cover to those people (who are probably a significant portion of the liberal wing of the party) to say “maybe I’m not really fully on board with all this trans stuff yet,” specifically picking out women’s sports to rally around because polling shows that people are overwhelmingly against trans women participating in women’s sports. And it also serves as him separating himself from those Democrats, i.e. the ones who completely fucked up what may have been the most important election in the history of the country. This is a very calculated maneuver, and it probably has nothing to do with his personal beliefs - because he’s a politician and I don’t think successful politicians believe in much of anything. And I think you will see lots of other Dems do similar.