If you think things are bad now, then, brace yourself: it is about to get a whole lot worse. If you are alarmed at the speed with which the Trump administration has set about dismantling every institution of American government and every pillar of the international order, you must understand that this is not just the initial burst of activity, the “shock and awe” phase after which things will settle down: if anything, the pace will continue to accelerate.
The world has never before been faced with such a threat. The United States has handed the nuclear codes to a madman, a criminal, a would-be dictator and a moron, all in the same person. Whatever the purpose to which he directs these powers – to impress his dictator friends, to further enrich himself and his cronies, to seize absolute power or just to watch the world burn – we must hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
One thing that concerns me that not many people have talked about is what’s going to happen to the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency? More and more countries want nothing to do with us and while the US dollar has a huge edge over any other currency, the US becoming a pariah is probably going to impact that.
I’ve wondered about this too.
The USA government has enormous debt, which grows every year due to an enormous deficit. But historically people have been relatively comfortable with just letting that continue to grow, because it is balanced by economic growth and stability (roughly speaking).
But now that the government is somewhat unstable… bad things might happen to the currency. The debt will continue to rise, but the productivity and stability that underpin it are eroding. It may collapse.
The RMB yuan is used in international trade by only eight countries, yet the Chinese economy is not going down the shitter. Has anyone credible tried to quantify the effect of the USD no longer being used as a reserve currency or in international trade?
It’s fine dude, Trump tweeted threats against any country that tried to get off the USD has the global reserve currency so therefore it definitely won’t happen. Or something.