With the post election analysis going on right now, there seems to be a ton of weight being put behind exit polling (so and so got x% of women voters, etc) to the point where they just are presented as fact. As early voting and mail-in voting increases around the country, aren’t those exit polls getting more and more unreliable? I don’t see that discussion happening anywhere and perhaps I have a misunderstanding of what an exit poll even is. I’ve never been polled in any way after voting myself and as I understand it polling is already not as reliable as they’re presented. So should we put as much trust into these exit polls?
It likely skews data in conservative states, but likely not by much. At least in 2020, mail-in voting was presented as the greatest boogeyman to ever threaten the GOP that week. That pushed conservative voters to vote in person in conservative states and make a big show about how much more reliable and traceable it was. Democrats already trusted the mail-in option. Conservatives in my blue area were not as polarized by this threat, in my observation, and still used the mail-in option. I imagine they knew they’d be overrun in the electoral vote so it didn’t matter if the popular vote was accurate or not.
This time around, I’m out of the Reddit loop and I’m not subjected to Fox News every day, so I’m not as in touch with the vibe.
I don’t know how I feel about the idea that conservative men create that much change by overwatching wives. I am not saying it doesn’t happen, but if these wives’ outspoken comments are believed to be true, then they’re indoctrinated before voting, not coerced in the booth. Reddit and Lemmy skews left and secular, so I feel they both underestimate the power of promising more Christianity, the power of making women beleive abortions are murder (but theirs can be repented or explained), that undocumented aliens are taking their tax money and all in murderous gangs, and that women can’t even lead. Ask their opinion of Hillary Clinton and they’ll tell you she’s a bitch. Then ask why. You might get something about Benghazi and not satisfying Bill, but that’s probably it. Her looks? Her voice? Nothing concrete.
The polls were historically accurate this election. Most swingstates were predicted within 2% margin.