A new poll shows former President Trump leading Vice President Harris by only 2 points in Florida ahead of what could be a tighter-than-expected race in the red state in November.
Trump leads Harris with 49 to her 47 percent support in the Sunshine State, according to a Morning Consult poll released Monday. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus two points.
Florida is already a swing state and has been for ages. 2 of the last 4 elections it went blue.
It wasn’t a freak accident either. There’s no sane way to look at the last 70 years of presidential elections in Florida and determine it’s been a safe long-term bet for either party in that timeframe. It usually votes for the winner, but when it hasn’t, that loser has always (in modern times) been a Republican - so the state is at least much more electorally important to them than it is to Democrats. It’s very much always been a leans-Republican swing state.
Democrats have been struggling in Florida for a while now, and most predictions have been assuming it would be going to Trump. That’s why all the focus is on Pennsylvania and far less is on Florida.
If it were to go blue again this year, that would radically alter the electoral math, and probably turn a close race into a massive blowout.
The same can be said for Ohio. Both of them used to be swing states, and potentially could be again, but are not currently.