On a national poll the dems need to be about 5 points ahead to be in with a shot of taking the electoral college.
This is a step in the right direction, lots of work to do though. I’m hopeful the more folks see of Harris, rather than their pre-existing largely meme originated opinions, the more they’ll like her.
They do when you take into account that democrats traditionally vastly over perform in their stronghold states like NY and CA in a way that’s inefficient for the electoral college. It’s why democrats usually win the popular vote even if they lose the election.
On a national poll the dems need to be about 5 points ahead to be in with a shot of taking the electoral college.
This is a step in the right direction, lots of work to do though. I’m hopeful the more folks see of Harris, rather than their pre-existing largely meme originated opinions, the more they’ll like her.
No, they just need to be about 1% ahead in each of the the seven or eight swing states.
Which translates to about 3-5 points ahead in a national poll.
That seems like a dangerous inference to make…
Typically that’s how it works out. It’s not like it’s a hard and fast rule… but it’s generally pretty close.
I don’t think percent works like that.
They do when you take into account that democrats traditionally vastly over perform in their stronghold states like NY and CA in a way that’s inefficient for the electoral college. It’s why democrats usually win the popular vote even if they lose the election.
I think this number is a little high, but I really want to see a blowout so this is a great goal. The number I heard was about 3%.