IMO there’s also a contingent of people who are demotivated to participate. Lack of participation hurts Biden more than trump.

Despite the danger, Trump doesn’t feel like an imminent threat to most people. He’s not motivating enough alone to bring out Democratic voters. However you do have a bunch of shit demotivating those voters. Gaza, money, immigration. The only big motivator is abortion, and Biden kinda flubbed that.

A Dem win will be on abortion alone at this point, unless something huge changes.