Squeezed by high interest rates and record prices, homeowners are frozen in place. They can’t sell. So first-time buyers can’t buy.
If buying a home is an inexorable part of the American dream, so is the next step: eventually selling that home and using the equity to trade up to something bigger.
But over the past two years, this upward mobility has stalled as buyers and sellers have been pummeled by three colliding forces: the highest borrowing rates in nearly two decades, a crippling shortage of inventory, and a surge in home prices to a median of $434,000, the highest on record, according to Redfin.
People who bought their starter home a few years ago are finding themselves frozen in place by what is known as the “rate-lock effect” — they bought when interest rates were historically low, and trading up would mean a doubling or tripling of their monthly interest payments.
They are locked in, and as a result, families hoping to buy their first homes are locked out.
Interest rates aren’t causing this problem.
Low interest helps buyers compete against cash offers from investors and corpos.
When rates are high, it incentivizes that type of buyer because it’s costing people who would live there more.
Now, traditional wisdom says higher interest encourages lending because banks like money. But times have changed, they get better returns on student loans, credit cards, or rent after they buy up homes.
There’s just better investment opportunities for lenders, and instead of cracking down on the other ways they make money to make lending more attractive, were trying to pay them more to want to do mortgages.
Which is not sustainable.
Have you ever looked at an amortized loan with 8% interest? You pay more 3x the value of the house on a 30-year mortgage.