This is the first poll taken after the conviction, and has us at 41% Biden/39% Trump
Actual voting preferences differ only slightly from one the same pollster took in early May, which had us at 35% Biden/36% Trump.
Having a solid sense of how the conviction will impact things will likely take a week or so as news percolates and people talk.
I’ll also note that these to polls are polls of adults, which tend to favor Trump by a little bit more than polls of registered voters or of likely voters.
Archived copies of the article: archive.today ghostarchive.org
It’d take some work to bake this in so it doesn’t just revert to the norm and it doesn’t seem like Biden’s team wants to do that work. I have a real hard time figuring out how political experts theoretically at the top of their field just thought this was an event that should be met with a lowkey response. Polls have been saying this would affect people’s votes the whole time, they just need to exploit it rather than expect it to be self-evident to the voting population that this mattered.
The issue is that that’s who Biden and leading members of the democrats are. They do not, in my opinion, have the framework to deal with a political campaign being an existential threat.