Exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian shows 55% believe economy is shrinking, in troubling sign for president’s re-election bid

Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.

The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:

  • 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.

  • 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.

  • 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.

  • HeyThisIsntTheYMCA@lemmy.worldEnglish
    37·
    6 months ago

    Economists call this a K shaped recovery. People at the top of the economy stop being in a recession. People at the bottom of the economy stay in the recession. Net, it looks like a recovery.

    • mozz@mbin.grits.dev
      18·
      6 months ago

      Except it’s literally the opposite of that - wages at the top are not keeping pace with inflation (whether to blame Biden for the massive 2022 inflation spike is a somewhat different story), but wages at the bottom are increasing, even outpacing inflation. All the lines are squeezing together.

      • MelodiousFunk@slrpnk.net
        9·
        6 months ago

        Those lines have been diverging for over a generation. You’ll need a vice grip the size of the Grand Canyon to squeeze hard enough make any real world difference.

        • mozz@mbin.grits.dev
          5·
          6 months ago

          Absolutely accurate. Also means it’s kind of silly to kick out (with no plan for a better replacement, and with specific plans for something much much worse) the guy who actually vice gripped them together by a little bit, though, or assert that he’s hurting everyone on purpose and that they’re actually still going apart and that’s his fault and if you try to tell me any different then (hostility).

          Usually, economic policies on the scale of the whole country take quite a while to kick in and really produce significant improvement even when you can get them through congress (which, a bunch of his more aggressive than this stuff, he couldn’t).

          • ryathal@sh.itjust.works
            6·
            6 months ago

            Unless you think black Americans make up the entirety of poor people that has nothing to do with high vs low income.

            • mozz@mbin.grits.dev
              4·
              6 months ago

              Saying it has “nothing” to do with it is wrong; they’re so deeply connected that you might as well use either or both, since racial disparity is fundamental enough to the American economy that they give the same answer.

              But sure, it’s fair to ask for something specifically about income level instead of by race; here’s one by percentiles and here’s the GINI coefficient over time.