Ironically, the offshore wind leases being more readily available was part of the permitting reform Manchin pushed for in the IRA. Many, especially on the left, assumed Biden put it in there as a huge concession to the fossil industry. Which isn’t a totally invalid interpretation, but the wonks at the time were all kind of quietly muttering that the same offshore permitting reform was essential to the success of wind. Manchin probably just had very poor understanding of the policy issues at play. He basically admitted as much in the wake of passing the bill, as I recall. Pretty much the only dark spot in that legislation, and even it had a silver lining.

In the longterm, offshore wind will almost certainly to outcompete offshore oil assuming oil isn’t given wildly preferential treatment (which seems to be what Trump is vowing to do – ignore the free market and ensure oil stays dominant at any cost). Of course, we don’t have time to wait for the free market to sort it out, but it’s still interesting that this is the forecast for the industry.

Wind has had a lot of struggles during the IRA. Mostly because of how bonkers interest rates got, and because all the various green banks and similar funds have been very slow to roll out. I suspect that, like with nuclear, the “grassroots” faux-environmentalist/NIMBY campaigns against wind energy are vastly, vastly overstated and the reality is that it’s just a financial issue. Though it’s definitely true that we have far too many opportunities during approvals for random members of the public to step up and torpedo wind development, whether they be disingenuous actors or not. But unlike nuclear, small and modular wind isn’t vaporware, so there’s every reason to hope the learning curves will start accelerating its usage and soon. And like with most renewables, interconnection queues and costs are still likely the biggest obstacle.