The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.

The mean of the bootstrapped estimates of the tipping time is 〈tc〉 = 2050, and the 95% confidence interval is 2025–2095.

…

Even with these reservations, this is indeed a worrisome result, which should call for fast and effective measures to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the steady change of the control parameter toward the collapse of the AMOC (i.e., reduce temperature increase and freshwater input through ice melting into the North Atlantic region). As a collapse of the AMOC has strong societal implications, it is important to monitor the flow and EWS [early warning signs] from direct measurements.

  • klz
    6•11 months ago

    the 95% confidence interval is 2025–2095

    Looking at the date this article was published, it’s possibly worse than this makes it seem. This was submitted in March. If we look at the sea surface temperature graphs for this year you will see from March this year it goes crazy.

    https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

    Screenshot