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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • [The decision to accept South Africans as refugees]

    South Africa does not have any “refugees”. The very suggestion is ludicrous. This is Trump lie #74394. The democratic majority government took over from the white supremist minority government 30 years ago. If there were going to be any reprisals for the repressive dictatorship it would have all happened 30 years ago. There were no reprisals at all, not even the land seizures of plantations that occurred after the collapse of the similar dictatorship in Zimbabwe Rhodesia.

    It’s plainly obvious Traitorapist Trump and the civil rights reactionaries of the Republican Party just want white people to come here and non white people to leave here. That is the real “immigration” policy. In addition he is assuming they are likely to be racists like him and his far right reactionary clique of unamerican weirdos. What do you expect from someone whose father was arrested in a joint KKK/Fascist riot in NYC in 1928? The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.



















  • Trump’s 10% drop in the dollar, when combined with Trump’s new 10% tariffs (and not even counting all his other special tariffs on dozens of countries), means that things are going to get at least 20% more expensive for Americans. Even if he dropped his 10% tariffs right now plus all his many other tariffs, things would still cost 10% more because of his mismanagement of the economy.

    And remember, all of this is illegal. All tariffs are supposed to go thru congress. Presidents are not supposed to have the power to unilaterally impose gigantic Trump tax increases on Americans. The Smoot Hawley tariffs of 1930, which were smaller than Trump’s tariffs and resulted in an unemployment rate of 23.6% two years later, were passed by congress and merely signed by President Herbert Hoover. Presidents are only allowed to impose unilateral tariffs during “emergencies”. Treason Trump never even specified what the “emergency” was, let alone justified it.







  • . US police also kill and hospitalize more people than Chinese police.

    LMFAO you aren’t the slightest bit credible. Just in this one region alone the Chinese dictatorship threw in jail 1 million people none of whom were criminals.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-22278037

    [China has been accused of committing crimes against humanity and possibly genocide against the Uyghur population and other mostly-Muslim ethnic groups in the north-western region of Xinjiang.

    Human rights groups believe China has detained more than one million Uyghurs against their will over the past few years in a large network of what the state calls “re-education camps”, and sentenced hundreds of thousands to prison terms.

    A series of police files obtained by the BBC in 2022 has revealed details of China’s use of these camps and described the routine use of armed officers and the existence of a shoot-to-kill policy for those trying to escape.

    The US is among several countries to have previously accused China of committing genocide in Xinjiang. The leading human rights groups Amnesty and Human Rights Watch have published reports accusing China of crimes against humanity.]




  • The headline did not say 4% of the market. It said a large number without context.

    You could have checked the context of total S&P market cap before concluding that $2 trillion was an ‘insignificant’ number.

    and the kind of reporting that leads to it.

    CNBC is a highly reputable financial news source. It was wrong to be thinking and suggesting their reporting was bad.

    Why are you responding with new information? My critique this whole time has been about this specific article

    Okay. I guess my criticism is with the assumptions you made. When you said “the fact that the trend happened to continue this time…” it shows that you think of the stock market as a random casino divorced from real events. If you had known what the reason was for the huge drop on the first day and that it was tied to major past historical events, you would have also known that it was highly likely to continue on the next day.

    In summary:

    Your assumption that CNBC was a non reputable news source with some sort of agenda was wrong.

    Your view of the stock market as a random casino and yesterday’s huge drop as a random one-off event not likely to be repeated was wrong.

    Your assumption that $2 trillion was an insignificant fraction of total market cap was wrong.

    I’m just saying, maybe be a little more cautious next time about throwing your spin on things if it is not something you personally participate in.





  • Trump imposed on us not just the biggest tax increase in US history, but a tax increase that will be disproportionately paid by lower and middle income people. In case you are not yet aware, these are not random market fluctuations. Trump’s tariffs that average +20% overall are bigger than the Smoot Harley tariffs that caused the Great Depression. The immediate market drop happened because of the historical parallels. The total market drop of the S&P in the last 2 days is 10% of market cap. But because of Recency Bias and/or ignorance of history, some people will need to see this play out. And so every day that people hear the news of another country retaliating against US tariffs, there is likely to be more market drops in reaction. Also, when we hear the actual news about lower earnings and fewer exports and more layoffs (e.g Stellantis) and higher prices.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act



  • Articles like this are unhelpful because they are written to be as alarmist as possible, and aimed at people who don’t understand the markets.

    It was aimed at people who do understand markets, and it actually understated the disaster, because it came out so early. We’ve already gone from the 4% market drop I reported to a 10% market drop in the S&P.

    Its manipulative to cite large numbers deliberately without context.

    It was 4% of the market. It was very large.

    The news has claimed markets have “plummeted” many times this year only to immediately recover.

    The S&P immediately went down another 5% today. So it is down 10% now. Half way to an official bear market. And it is going to go down again every single time we hear about another country retaliating against Trump’s tariffs.

    Articles like this aren’t good predictions because they have been wrong every other time…The fact that the trend happened to continue this time

    (1) The 4% market drop in the initial 15 minutes was not a “prediction” at all. It was a factual reality.

    (2) You were treating this as a 1 day event random market fluctuation. It happened because Trump’s tariffs were even bigger than the Smoot Harley Tariffs that directly caused the Great Depression that lasted 12 years, not 1 day. The stock market was down 90% in 1933 from were it was in 1929.

    It didn’t “happen to continue”. It wasn’t random at all. It happened because of a specific thing Trump did that had a disasterous and very long lasting historical parallel.