At this point it seems likely that this war will end with Russian troops on Polish border.
That seems improbable but I think if Ukraine hits crimea hard enough it can go kaboom by Kinzhals.
Once US offensive burns out then Ukraine isn’t going to have much of an army left. The west isn’t going to be able to supply a comparable batch of weapons nor will Ukraine have experienced and trained soldiers. The army increasingly consists of conscripts kidnapped off the street and gang pressed into service. Two probable outcomes in my opinion are that Russia leaves a rump state in western Ukraine or they go all the way.
I certainly can’t see how Ukraine would not only kick out Russia but also turn things around so much that they gain ground. It’s like playing poker with one deck of cards and all the aces face up on the table and your opponent raises you in the hope that the final card will be another ace.
I expect the regime in Ukraine is going to fall sooner than later because the only thing that keeps it going is western support. That’s now starting to run into limits set by the manufacturing capacity in the west. This isn’t a question of money, but a question of logistics.
Can’t argue with that. I’m surprised it’s lasted this long tbh. God knows what the west promised/threatened when it made Zelensky pull out of peace talks. Unfortunately the war hawks still got their way.
I think the original idea in the west was that they were going to choke Russia off economically. This was supposed to be over in a couple of months, but then China and India didn’t play along. And the west clearly didn’t have a backup plan for when Russian economy didn’t implode. Now all the western leaders painted themselves into a corner politically by taking a maximalist position on the war. Admitting that Russia won will be career ending for a lot of these people. And I think this is the main reason for such vehement support. They’re sill hoping against hope that something will happen that will turn the tide in their favor because their backs are now against the wall.
