Who the fuck is panicking? I’m relieved.
Not here, but I’ve seen a lot of people chiming in who seem torn up/devastated that Biden dropped out. If they’re as convinced that we’re all screwed now as I was convinced that we were screwed with Biden staying in I can understand their feelings. I just hope that I’ve assessed the situation better than they have. I, like you, found a bit of hope today.
The polls were pretty damning. I wouldn’t worry that it was the wrong move. Joe had some pretty heavy baggage that’s now off the plane.
I’m on pretty much the same page. I felt like we were being forced into suicide-pact that involved sleepwalking into fascism, and now it feels like someone’s actually at the wheel and steering away from that possibility.
What happened yesterday is precisely what I mean - the goal here isn’t for any specific Democratic nominee (i.e. Biden) to win; the goal is to stop the fucking fascists. That’s what the situation calls for, and it feels like we’re doing that now. I understand that a lot of people feel locked into the process, but drastic contexts sometimes call for drastic measures, and this is that. It’s very similar to how Macron and his party kneecapped their own political chances to stop National Front from winning a plurality or outright majority in the Assemblée nationale. It was the right call, and it worked. And I’m fairly optimistic that this candidate pivot is going to work, too.
It’s not perfect, and it’s not a guarantee. Nothing in politics is. But I feel a good bit better about our chances than I did two days ago.
People spent the entire year defending that his brain certainly wasn’t diseased enough for him to drop out and it’s totally the right move to keep him cause at least he’s barely conscious. Give time, we gotta at least wait for the weekend to end for the new programming directives to kick in.
I do hope very much that you are right.
History though has not ever shown a late replacement candidate winning any big election, so I can understand the panic.
I am afraid the democrats chances dropped with Biden pulling out.
The people whose talking heads are telling them to panic are panicking
The right is in a panic and pushing this “questionable legality” and “it’s too late to change their candidate” nonsense. They are publicly running on the issues of banning abortion, putting tariffs on everything coming into the country, and mass deportation of “illegals” that are taking “Hispanic, Black, and union” jobs at record rates. That last part of which I don’t know how the media hasn’t called it out for being overtly racist and complete bullshit. Yet they let it slide at the debate, because they were all racing to write about Biden, and then again at the RNC.
A few right-wing sources have been saying that there would be legal challenges to replacing Biden on the ticket, but it’s mostly just bluster and bunk. Some corners if Biden-world picked these arguments up as an excuse to keep him on the ticket, so they gained some traction, but there’s not much to them.
Yesterday was… very interesting, for sure, but I absolutely understood that taking a day to let things shake out a bit was probably a good idea. I admit I was speculating wildly with a couple of my friend groups, but it was just that - speculation. I pretty much ignored all the pundits and major news outlets predicting chaos and catastrophe as a result of his withdraw (which, if I’m honest, is the same lens I usually view their predictions with) and I’m quite happy I did. Major media outlets are just clickbait competitions at this point, and yesterday was simply a chance for them to print some money.
I’m not panicking, nor do I believe that there’s no recovering from it, but I suspect that the probability of a Trump presidency increased because we’re no longer fielding the incumbent. The Dems definitely have time to prove me wrong, though, and I hope they do.
How could he even have been on any ballots yet when he hadn’t even been officially nominated?
That’s sort of the point - this hesitancy was all bullshit.
The fact that the convention is so late does mean we’ll have to really scramble after it, though (and the convention is so late because of Biden’s specific request).
To be blunt, American election seasons are completely asinine.
As an American myself, having election seasons that essentially last somewhere between 7 months and 3 years is absolutely sanity destroying. It’s completely awful and I hate it passionately. It obviously also has a strong negative influence on our more responsible politicians actually, you know, trying to do their jobs in a meaningful sense. It’s all because it’s a super profitable exercise for a LOT of people. I’d be simply ecstatic if we had a system closer to France or the UK in that regard (and don’t get me started on the clusterfuck that is the electoral college).
In theory the FEC could address this by limiting the advertising season and going after candidates or news outlets that violate that limitation.
In actuality, the media makes far too much money turning it into a horse race.
Yeah, but even if they tried to nowadays, the Tribunal of Six would declare it illegal because Thomas Jefferson himself didn’t have that specific idea back in the late 1700s, so it’s “clearly unconstitutional”. Or, they’d just refer to the recent case where they decided that specialist regulatory agencies aren’t supposed to regulate anything.
There are states that require candidates to register by a date that is often before the nominating conventions. Those states have always passed one-time exceptions when that occurs. If they choose not to in this case, using the last minute change as political cover, it could be a legal grey area, and who knows how it would play out with today’s judicial system.
On the other hand, those are red states that a Democrat wouldn’t win anyways.
…a situation where the electoral college is actually an advantage against election manipulation.
Technically afaik the election institutions don’t care about parties, they care about the individual running. Remember the whole system was set up with the idea/hope that parties don’t exist.
Well that was then. Presently if you’re not the nominee from a party which received a minimum threshold of votes in the preceding election you have to get a bunch of signatures from the voters to be put on the ballot. So since the Democratic party has.met the threshold of votes in prior elections in all states their nominee will be on the ballots but they haven’t nominated anyone yet.
Sounds like the legal mechanism is that you need a certain threshold of support to be put on the ballot, but they carved out niche to just accept the nominee from the 2 parties with the understanding they would obviously meet the threshold of support.
Right. So they can’t have already started printing out ballots before the Democratic party has actually nominated their candidate.
The convention hasn’t even happened yet, Biden wasn’t officially the nominee. Ballots wouldn’t have been printed yet even if this was a lock.
What I am scared of: there is no legal ground to stop a harris ticket, and the Supreme Court has a history of decisions without legal ground helping the gop
The convention hasn’t even happened yet, nothing officially has made Biden the candidate for the Democrats, the system is built that even if he won the nomination in the primaries, the electors at convention still pick the candidate. While abnormal for modern times, it follows the system originally designed. The courts can force a candidate on or off the ballot ahead of their actual nomination.
I believe the legal ground is that several states have cutoff dates before the Democratic Convention. Usually everyone says “oops” and deals with it like adults, but there’s room for shenanigans
What are the cutoff days and have they been violated?
Edit: A quick Internet search has showed that this isn’t a thing.
This seems to be a good informal source with all the deadlines and what they are for:
https://ballotpedia.org/State_laws_and_party_rules_on_replacing_a_presidential_nominee,_2024
Democratic primary is Aug 19-22
From your article
Nearly half of the states have a deadline in August, and most require certification or identification of a candidate to fill a vacancy no later than September 6. Replacing a candidate’s name on the ballot in September, therefore, becomes increasingly difficult as many states will have already printed ballots or begun to allow voters to cast ballots.
Combine that with some Republicans vowing retribution when the convicted felon was removed from the ballot by a state or two, and you have something for them to try.
At least three states – Washington, Ohio and Alabama – have given notice that the Democratic National Convention will occur too late for state legal deadlines for filing the appropriate paperwork to appear on the presidential ballot.
By that logic they could stop Biden too…
Nothing changed except our chances of stopping trump improved
My question is if someone other than Harris wins the nomination, can Harris give over the elections funds? Were those funds donated to the Dems or to Biden/Harris specifically? Would there be legal donation issues to give them to someone else?
I’m a random person but my understanding was that legally the funds belong to the Biden/Harris campaign, now owned by Harris. I think moving that money between campaign funds is not permitted. Maybe some unprecedented swap where Harris remains VP would work.
Edit: i actually researched this, LegalEagle has a good video on it.
In short donations to DNC are safe, but the campaign committee for B/H would need to go into a super PAC and would face litigation risks
Oh boy she’d like that I’m sure.
I think the money can then be added into a PAC like “The Biden/Harris PAC For A Better Tomorrow” or some shit. Then, that PAC can be used to fund another candidate. Not 100% sure on it, but that’s my mildly educated guess.
Vermine Supreme 2024! I want my pony!
So how many votes do you think biden will STILL get?
Republicans will pull some shenanigans in at least one state to keep Biden on the ballot. My bet is Ohio. So, a non trivial amount.
to keep Biden on the ballot.
I think this should be “to put Biden on the ballot.” He is not currently the one the ballot, as he is not the Democratic nominee — the nominee is chosen at the party’s convention, which hasn’t happened yet for the Dems.
You’re absolutely correct. I was under the assumption that states pre printed ballots based on the presumptive nominees. Apparently states that do that are being naughty/cutting corners.
Apparently states that do that are being naughty/cutting corners.
This is like the “millions of dead people voting”. It’s not a thing. There are no states that do this. There’s no reason to, it takes days to print ballots, not 4 months.
I was talking about write ins. But actually keeping him on the ballot??? I never thought of that, damn that would be way worse.
Possibly illegal
He’s not even on the ballot in Ohio. A candidate hasn’t been chosen, so if they resort to any fuckery there it could be an attempt to keep the Democrats from having a candidate on the ballot at all.
Yup. That’s exactly what they tried already
To be fair that law has been on the books for years. The party should’ve been aware and not have scheduled the convention after the deadline.
They’ll be violating several of their own state laws, and federal law if they do so. I know it’s easy to go with the “but Trump gets away with everything” - reality is our elections to date have been free and fair and there’s no indication that’s going to change. The folks that own the elections by and large actually care about democracy. His fake electors scheme failed for a reason, and it wasn’t just dumb luck.
I agree with you on people working in election offices having integrity by and large but the Ohio Republicans did actually try to pull a fast one this election cycle. Fortunately DeWine knew it was beyond the pale.
