We need to implement ranked choice voting for all of elections. A third party candidate should not be something scary we hide from.
Democrats aren’t owed votes, and even if they were 3rd party candidates don’t lose democrats elections. Don’t fall for two party propaganda, vote for who you like (unless there’s someone on the same level of horrible as trump or desantis running, then probably just vote democrat to maximize your chances of not living in a fascist dystopia)
Don’t fall for two party propaganda, vote for who you like
Just because it benefits the two parties to say this doesn’t mean it isn’t true. Voting for a third party always helps the remaining candidate the voter likes least by reducing the number of votes needed to win.
(unless there’s someone on the same level of horrible as trump or desantis running, then probably just vote democrat to maximize your chances of not living in a fascist dystopia)
All evidence indicates that this premise will apply for the next few election cycles.
Why does everyone assume that if the third party candidate weren’t there the votes would go to the Democrat?
They don’t. That’s why the word “might” is in the headline.
The simple math is that if you vote third party, it always helps the remaining candidate you like the least. This is because it reduces the number of votes needed to win.
If you live in a gerrymandered district (house), or a state (senate, president) with winner takes all then your vote doesn’t count anyway unless the vote s normally close. Voting 3rd party in that situation (most people) is actually less of a waste. If the third party gets starts getting close to being included in debates the two electable parties will strive to do better. Right now the bar is so low because there is no competition.
Being a lifelong third party voter, I’ve heard the “spoiler” line probably a thousand times, and always from Democrats.
Anecdotal, sure… but that “might” is a hedge and we both know it.
Well, I lived in Canada over 3 election cycles, and I saw the riding I lived in go to the conservatives with 40% of the vote in 2 of them. If the incumbant MP didn’t go to jail, it probably would have been all 3.
Again, it isn’t politics, it is simple math. In a plurality voting system, voting for a 3rd party (by definition, the candidate with the least support) always increases your chances of getting what you perceive as the worst outcome.
I don’t think everyone assumes this, always. Ross Perot is an old, but good example of the opposite.
But the current state of US politics shows that Republicans are a more loyal and secure voting base then democrats. And there are several examples of the right promoting third party candidates to “spoil” for democrats. Look at the legalize marijuana party in MN, where it was run and funded by Republicans. The “no labels” party that just cropped up also has a lot of Republcan backing.
Now, we should be cautious about reading too much into these surveys. After all, we are talking about small overall movements that lie inside the margin of error for each poll. That consideration also applies when trying to analyze who shifted, given that margins of error are larger for subgroups within a survey’s overall sample. More broadly, surveys conducted this far out from the general election historically have had little predictive value. Additionally, third-party candidates often poll better farther away from Election Day, when the stakes of the election are lower — and millions of dollars in general election advertising have yet to be spent. And finally, not every third-party voter would vote for a Democrat or Republican if their preferred candidate didn’t run, so we can’t assume that, say, a Green Party voter would back a Democrat or a Libertarian would vote Republican.
Did my time machine work? Have I really traveled to the past?
We don’t need to have major-party presidential nominees to have a conversation about a third-party spoiler candidate affecting the 2024 presidential election.
I guess that’s technically true but it’s kind of meaningless until there is one.
